Yale Economist: If the Economy Improves, Obama Wins

By: Monday November 22, 2010 12:17 pm

While many partisans in America vote on firm beliefs, issue, and ideology; elections are often decided by the squishy middle who vote based on perceived results. That is why Yale economist Ray C. Fair is predicting Obama will win re-election in a landslide. Fair’s prediction has nothing to do with Obama’s campaign skills or the [...]

NV Sen: Tight Race with Terrible Candidate Becomes Depressing Political Science Experiment

By: Thursday October 28, 2010 9:50 am

It almost seems like this year, in Nevada, the Republican Party is running a grand political science experiment to see if it is possible to run a candidate so bad that they counteract the overwhelming political determinism of skyrocketing unemployment. Harry Reid has made no major gaffes or been involved in any big scandals, but [...]

NV Sen: Reid and Angle Still Effectively Tied in New Poll

By: Tuesday October 12, 2010 6:42 pm

So far this year, no major political contest has been found to be so consistently tied over such a long period by so many pollsters as the Nevada Senate race. The latest PPP poll of likely voters is no exception, it finding Harry Reid leading by only two points. PPP (PDF) (10/7-9) Harry Reid (D) [...]

Gallup: Unemployment Rises to 10.1% on Eve of Election

By: Thursday October 7, 2010 9:37 pm

According to Gallup, the number of unemployed Americans has ticked up noticeably from 9.4% in mid-September to 10.1%. Given that “Jobs and the Economy” is by far the dominant issue for voters right now, this is not good news for the incumbent party. . . and that would be the Democrats. Historical analysis has shown [...]

Invisible Republicans Don’t Want Voters to Know Their Plans

By: Wednesday October 6, 2010 1:34 pm

We’re seeing more and more discussion of the fact that Republican candidates nationwide have basically dropped off the map, relying on advertising and the national mood over retail campaigning and public appearances. As of Friday, Colorado Republican Senate hopeful Ken Buck had gone nine consecutive days without holding a public event and acknowledged to The [...]

Suffering Fools: Democrats Will Pay for Obama Administration’s Original Economic Sin

By: Thursday August 19, 2010 1:55 pm

Sometimes people are just wrong and they suffer as a result. This is effectively what happened with Obama early in his presidency in dealing with the economy and the stimulus bill. The stimulus bill was far too small and the public sales job on it was awful, but these are sub-problems that arose from the original sin of the Obama administration. President Obama and his economic advisers were very wrong about one important thing early on: they badly underestimated of the severity of the economic downturn. Most of their subsequent actions were based on this false premise, and as a result, their actions have been misguided and ineffective. They also have missed opportunities and even taken actions that were self-defeating. Being wrong about the downturn has done serious political damage to Obama and to the Democratic party.

July Jobs Numbers: For Dems, the Most Important (and Worst) Political News of the Day

By: Friday August 6, 2010 10:58 am

That latest job numbers are bad news for the country, and, as a result, bad news for the incumbent political party, which will inevitably feel the brunt of voter anger over the economy. The country lost 131,000 jobs in July, and there is no indication the jobs market will improve in the three months leading [...]

NV Sen: Despite Angle’s Ongoing Trouble, Reid Still in the Danger Zone

By: Friday July 30, 2010 6:29 pm

Democrats felt they lucked out when Sharron Angle became the Republican nominee to challenge Majority Leader Harry Reid for his Nevada Senate seat. Most observers concur that Angle is a bad candidate–prone to gaffes, plenty of baggage, and a public record of views that can easily be attacked as falling well outside the mainstream. Yet, [...]

Karl Rove Did Not Destroy The Republican Party – Iraq, Katrina, And A Massive Financial Meltdown Did

By: Tuesday April 6, 2010 5:30 am

In her most recent column, Jill Lawrence at Politics Daily makes the case that President Obama is not really ignoring his base. In her column defending Obama’s “maverick” behavior, which often goes against direct promises he made to important Democratic constituencies, she quotes Stan Greenberg: Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said Democrats need opportunities to reach [...]

Job Numbers Maybe the Most Important “Tracking Poll” for November

By: Friday April 2, 2010 10:27 am

Today, there was some good news for the country–and, by extension, elected Democrats. The job market saw serious growth with 162,000 new jobs added in March. If unemployment starts to head down, it should be a huge help for Democrats in November. The American economy added 162,000 jobs in March, the Labor Department reported Friday, [...]

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