A bit of surprisingly good news for Democrats in what has otherwise been a very bad few weeks: PPP now finds the Pennsylvania Senate race effectively tied. Democrat Joe Sestak leads Republican Pat Toomey by a single point. PPP (PDF) (10/17-18) Joe Sestak (D) 46 Pat Toomey (R) 45 Undecided 9 What is helping Sestak [...]
|By: Jon Walker Monday October 18, 2010 5:21 pm|
With Proposition 19, the initiative to legalize and regulate marijuana, on the California ballot, the big political question is: can the initiative be a driver of voter turnout ? This is not only important for the success or failure of the ballot measure, but could potentially affect both the highly contested California governor and Senate [...]
|By: Jon Walker Wednesday October 6, 2010 6:39 pm|
The Senate race in Nevada remains incredibly tight according to the latest survey from CNN/Time Opinion Research. The poll also found that Harry Reid is being badly hurt by disintrest from Democratic-leaning voters adversely affecting projected turnout this year in Nevada. CNN/Time Opinion Research (PDF) (10/1-5) Likely Voters Harry Reid (D) 40 Sharron Angle (R) [...]
|By: Jon Walker Tuesday September 28, 2010 7:15 pm|
According to a study by the New Organizing Institute of likely 2010 turnout demographics, things look bad for Democrats. Their research shows that, in addition to some long-term trends that hurt Democrats in midterm elections, like a substantial decline in youth turnout, there are some worrying signs for this year in particular, like a projected [...]
|By: Jon Walker Friday August 13, 2010 11:30 am|
If the “undecideds” in most polls are people who seem to strongly disapprove of both major parties, I think it is legitimate to speculate whether they will even bother to vote this November.
|By: Jon Walker Wednesday August 11, 2010 6:30 pm|
According to a new Pew Research poll (PDF) of registered voters in the upcoming congressional election, 45 percent are leaning Democratic while 44 percent are leaning Republican. This does not bode well for Democrats, since they need to be have a significant lead in the generic ballot if they hope to hold onto their large majorities in the House and Senate. At the same time, these numbers don’t point to a massive Republican wave. By comparison, at about this same time in 2006, Democrats led Republicans 50 percent to 39 percent.