FDL’s Big Midterm Election Liveblog (Part Two)

By: Tuesday November 2, 2010 7:59 pm

Welcome to part two of FDL  midterm election night liveblog (link to part one). For the most recent list of FDL top 108 House races to watch tonight go here You can also find my list of the twelve House races in early closing states that should give you a sense of how the night [...]

FDL’s Hot House 108: (11/1) Election Eve 2010 – The Last Update

By: Monday November 1, 2010 8:45 pm

Tomorrow is election day, so this is the last round of updates to the FDL Hot House list. (In case you missed here are the updates from Saturday and Sunday.) Join us Tuesday night as we check in on the only polls that really matter. Till then, check out 12 bellwether races that could give [...]

FDL Hot House: 12 Early Races to Watch

By: Monday November 1, 2010 3:00 pm

In many Congressional elections, most close races tend to break in the same direction at the last minute–and this year is unlikely to be any different. If the bulk of undecided voters on the east coast decide at the polling station to vote for Republicans, there is a good chance that the same thing happened [...]

DCCC Attempts to Counter Bleak Narrative with Internal Polls

By: Tuesday September 7, 2010 2:15 pm

There has been a lot of bad news for Democrats recently. A Gallup poll found Republicans with a historically large, ten-point lead on the generic ballot question, and the ABC News/Washington Post poll found Republicans with a 13-point lead among likely voters on the generic ballot. Many political prognosticators are also projecting Democrats losing control [...]

Will Fundraising Be the Best Indicator of Which Incumbents Are in Real Trouble?

By: Thursday August 5, 2010 12:42 pm

I highly recommend this recent post by Paul Blumenthal at the Sunlight Foundation. Instead of looking at which incumbents are most in trouble based on polling, PVI, past elections or demographic data, he points to the remarkably high level of correlation between fundraising and the likelihood of being re-elected: In 1994, of those in the [...]

VA-05: Tom Perriello Trails GOP Challenger by Wide Margin

By: Wednesday July 21, 2010 10:37 am

Freshmen Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello (VA-05) is in real danger of losing his seat according to a new SurveyUSA poll of likely voters. The poll has Republican challenger Robert Hurt aheada by double digits: SurveyUSA (7/16-19) Robert Hurt (R) 58 Tom Perriello (D) 35 Jeffery Clark (I) 4 Undecided 3 Perriello was always expected to [...]

VA-5: Democrat Tom Perriello in Relatively Decent Shape for Re-election

By: Thursday February 11, 2010 12:52 pm

A new PPP poll of Virginia’s 5th congressional district shows Rep. Tom Perriello tied with or leading his potential Republican opponents. Tom Perriello is tied with Republican frontrunner Robert Hurt at 44% each. Former Congressman Virgil Goode has hinted he may run as an independent if the GOP doesn’t nominate someone sufficiently conservative. In that [...]

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