Several months ago many of the economic indicators were showing improvement, albeit very small and insufficient to make up for the depth of our current crisis. The important thing politically was it at least looked like things were moving in the right direction, which is critical for an incumbent President heading into an election. In [...]

With all the entries in Firedoglake’s Election Projection Challenge now in, I decided to see if the aggregate projections of the FDL community can outperform the professional political prognosticators. With that in mind, here is the average of all entries in our contest: Democrats Hold 218 seats in the House Democrats Hold 52.6 seats in [...]

The number of contests close enough to watch continues to grow daily. As a result, I’m adding RI-01 because new polling shows the race effectively tied. RI-01: (Open, currently held by Democrats) (Update 10/29: The NBC 10-Quest Research poll has Democrat David Cicilline at 42 percent, Republican John Loughlin at 40 percent.) There are also [...]

Having reviewed the entirety of races for the House of Representatives in what is supposed to be a GOP “wave” election, I find that as of now, this wave is a mile wide, but barely an inch deep. Going district by district, you could make the case that Republicans on a good night could net [...]

Having taken time to examine all the competitive House and Senate races, the thing that most stuck out to me was both how broad the playing field is, but also how shallow. Most prognosticators believe the GOP could pick up between 45 and 60 seats in the House. What is interesting, though, is that you [...]

Several pollsters, such as CNN/Time (PDF), Marist, and Gallup, have been releasing their poll results showing totals for both all registered voters and “likely voters.” The difference between how Democrats are performing this year with all registered voters and how they are doing with the group these pollsters believe is most likely to vote is [...]

A new set of Marist polls for McClathy paints a dark picture for three Democratic candidates. In Colorado, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Democrats are trailing their Republican opponents by high single digits. Colorado McClatchy/Marist (PDF) (9/26-28) Ken Buck (R) 50 Michael Bennet (D) 42 Other 2 Undecided Pennsylvania McClatchy/Marist (PDF) (9/26-28) Pat Toomey (R) 51 Joe [...]

According to the poll of 1,252 registered voters conducted last month, 52% in Washington State support “removing state civil and criminal penalties for possession or use of marijuana,” with only 35% opposed. The poll’s release did not indicate the position of the other 13%.