MN-08: Tarryl Clark Uses Partisan Anger for a Political Two-Step

By: Monday May 9, 2011 12:48 pm

Long-shot races against polarizing incumbents could become one of the newest routes for young politicians to fast-track their political careers, if Democrat Tarryl Clark’s recent political two-step pays off. Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann (MN-06) is one of the most extremely polarizing figures in politics. Parts of the Republican base love her, and, with an equal [...]

Obamafication: Will White House Try to Nationalize House Races in 2012?

By: Monday April 4, 2011 8:04 pm

Over at First Read, they are reporting that the Obama campaign is going to “attempt to at least experiment with organizing” in Arizona, Georgia and Texas. While, in theory, I could conceive of how Arizona or Georgia might end up coming into play in a relatively close 2012 election, I agree with Jon Chait, there [...]

Polling Shows Democrats Poised to Make Big Gains in 2012 House Races

By: Tuesday March 22, 2011 3:09 pm

A new poll of 50 battleground Congressional districts, conducted by Democracy Corps, finds Democrats likely to make solid gains in the 2012 election cycle: This leads to a congressional race that is dead-even in the battleground.  After winning these seats by a collective 14 points in 2010, these Republicans now lead generic Democratic challengers by [...]

Dems Will Win House, Lose Senate in 2012? Not Likely

By: Thursday March 17, 2011 7:30 pm

Today, Ezra Klein pointed out that on Intrade, people are betting Democrats have a decent chance of winning back the House but are unlikely to hold the Senate: I was tooling around InTrade last night and noticed that the betting markets are giving Democrats much better odds of retaking the House of Representatives in 2012 [...]

CA-36: Bowen Leads Hahn in Race to Replace Harman

By: Tuesday February 22, 2011 1:10 pm

The early retirement of Rep. Jane Harman this year will set off a special election in California’s 36th district. The latest poll of the race has California Secretary of State Debra Bowen with a small lead over Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn. From Roll Call: The poll was conducted by the Democratic-leaning Public Policy [...]

A Larger – and Fairer – House of Representatives

By: Monday January 24, 2011 12:01 pm

In today’s New York Times, Dalton Conley and Jacqueline Stevens make the strong case for increasing the number of members in our House of Representatives. Pointing out that the number of members was frozen at 435 more for reasons of racism than any inherent logic about good government. But after the 1910 census, when the [...]

Swings in Youth Turnout Could Lead to Swings in Control of Congress

By: Wednesday January 12, 2011 6:41 pm

Republicans did very well in the 2010 election, mainly because, across the country, the public turned against the Democratic party. What added to the level of victory, though, was the tendency of young, Democratic-leaning voters to vote in lower numbers in midterm elections. This age gap, and its potential to affect elections, has grown significantly [...]

Democrats Have Slight but Real Chance of Winning Back House in 2012

By: Friday January 7, 2011 4:55 pm

Having spent only one day as House minority leader, Nancy Pelosi is already talking about the quick potential return of the Democratic party to the majority. While winning the minimum 25 seats required to regain the majority would be difficult, looking at the historic record, it is possible. An examination of the past 30 congressional [...]

2010 Census Reapportionment Could Give Iowa, New Hampshire Even More Power to Pick the President

By: Wednesday December 22, 2010 6:46 pm

The re-apportionment of congressional districts connected to the 2010 census will result in several Democratic-leaning states, such as New Jersey, Massachusetts, and New York, losing House seats. The loss of congressional members, also means these reliably blue states now have fewer votes in the Electoral College. The result could be that the early primary states [...]

Only Two House Races Remain Undecided

By: Wednesday November 24, 2010 4:47 pm

Late yesterday, winners were declared in two of what were the only four remaining undecided House races. In New York’s 25th Congressional district, freshman Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei conceded to Republican Ann Marie Burke. Burke’s current lead is just under 600 votes. This win in NY-25 brings the Republicans’ net gain in the House to [...]

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