During the 2012 Presidential election, Gallup’s tracking poll data significantly overstated support for Mitt Romney and as a result Gallup decided to engage in an in-depth analysis to determine what went wrong. Their conclusion is that they made four important mistakes: 1) Gallup’s likely voter estimates were off. They put too much weight on past [...]

With the next Presidential election almost four years away, the Electoral College gets little attention but it is always worth pointing out what a horrible institution it is. According to Gallup, by a greater two-to-one margin Americans want to replace the Electoral College with a national popular vote. From Gallup: The Electoral College doesn’t just [...]

While it may only appeal to an election nerd like myself, I think one of the most fascinating developments taking place this election is the early voting numbers. There is an incredible divergence between who is winning the early vote nationally and who is winning it in the swing states. According to both Gallup and [...]

Given that Romney leads nationally with early voters, one can assume that there is nothing about the demographic make up of Democrats that makes them more likely to vote early than Republicans. So the fact that Obama holds a huge lead among early voters only in the swing states strongly indicates his campaign has a vastly superior ground game.

President Obama’s performance in the debates improved with each subsequent appearance. He lost the first debate to Mitt Romney by a historic margin, but he was seen as having won both the second and third debate. According to Gallup, Obama is perceived as having won the third debate by a larger margin than he won [...]

There is more confirmation that voters believe President Obama did a better job in the second debate than Mitt Romney. In addition to the instant flash polls from the night of the debate showing Obama won, Gallup is out with a new poll taken during the two days following the debate. It found a small [...]

President Obama’s extremely poor performance during the debate last week gave Mitt Romney a real opportunity to make up some ground. According to Gallup, Romney’s position in their national tracking poll improved significantly after the debate. From Gallup: The first presidential debate went decidedly in Romney’s favor. The debate appears to have affected voters to [...]

Heading into tonight’s debate, most Americans expect Mitt Romney to perform worse on stage than President Obama. Multiple polls found that by nearly a two-to-one margin, Americans expect Obama to win the first debate this evening.

Overwhelmingly, the American people think it would be better for one party to control both Congress and the White House. Apparently, the last two years of continuous fighting between President Obama and House Republicans as they stumbled from one artificially created crisis to the next has convinced voters that divided government only results in crippling [...]

Traditionally, Americans have not considered it important to have both Congress and the Presidency controlled by the same party, but that has changed dramatically this year. According to Gallup, a record number of Americans would prefer having both branches of government controlled by a single party. A large plurality, 38 percent, would prefer one party control. [...]