A Week Out, Things Are Looking Bad for Democrats

By: Thursday October 30, 2014 9:52 am

The election indicators are looking bad for Democrats. The only real solace for them is they are at least not historically bad. According to Gallup, Democrats hold only a small affiliation edge among adults, which normally translates into a big loss because the people who actually turn out to vote in a midterm election tend [...]

People of Kentucky Apparently Just Realized They’ve Been Voting Republican for Decades

By: Friday October 17, 2014 9:44 am

This chart shows why the DSCC’s decision to pull out of the Kentucky Senate race was inevitable for months. From Gallup: Remarkably, until just last year a plurality of people in Kentucky considered themselves leaning-Democrat even though they have not supported a Democrat for President or Senate in roughly two decades and the state has [...]

Many Americans Are Weirdly Indifferent About How the Federal Government Is Controlled

By: Thursday October 16, 2014 10:45 am

This is a poll answer that has always confused me. Apparently a plurality of Americans, 37 percent, still thinks it makes no difference if the federal government is controlled by one party or is divided. From Gallup: I find this so perplexing because I don’t know how you could have watched the past six years [...]

Republicans Have Edge on Most Big Issues

By: Monday October 13, 2014 9:52 am

The bad news for Democrats keeps coming. New data from Gallup shows the Republican party has the advantage among the issues voters care most about this year.

Democratic Base Is Not At All Enthusiastic About This Election

By: Thursday October 9, 2014 10:08 am

The Democratic base is significantly less engaged and motivated to vote this year compared with the Republican base. Across several indicators of voter involvement Republicans have a double digit edge while Democratic engagement is remarkably low. From Gallup: The only small upside for Democrats is that the enthusiasm gap isn’t quite as bad as 2010, [...]

Obama’s Midterm Drag This Year Similar to 2010 and Bush’s in 2006

By: Friday October 3, 2014 2:28 pm

Significantly more voters plan to use their congressional vote to send a message of opposition to President Obama than as a sign of support for him. From Gallup: The margin by which people are sending a message of opposition to the President compared to support is remarkably similar to the 2010 and 2006 midterm elections. [...]

The Tea Party is to Republicans what the GOP is to Rest of the Country

By: Thursday October 2, 2014 11:39 am

There may have been a brief time in the beginning when the so-called Tea Party movement was something that didn’t fall neatly along the basic partisan spectrum, driven by broad anger at Washington. But since that time it has effectively morphed into a synonym for conservative Republicanism. Gallup found eight in ten Tea Party supporters [...]

A Year of Negative Ratings for Obama

By: Thursday September 25, 2014 10:38 am

Today makes a rather problematic anniversary for President Obama. It was one year ago today that Gallup conducted their last tracking poll which actually found Obama with a positive job approval rating. Last September Obama briefly saw his approval ratings go positive, with 47 percent approve to 46 percent approve. Since then Obama’s approval rating [...]

Republican Base Doesn’t Care as Much About Who Controls Congress This Election

By: Monday September 22, 2014 11:24 am

There is a small piece of good news for Senate Democrats. In 2010, making sure Republicans took control of at least one chamber of Congress was hugely important to their base — but this year control of Congress isn’t nearly as big of a deal to regular Republicans. From Gallup: This fits with data showing [...]

The End of the Conservative Democrat

By: Friday September 19, 2014 12:57 pm

This Gallup poll of Arkansas captures perhaps the most important thing happening in American politics. The number of so-called “conservative Democrats” has been dropping steadily. From Gallup: There was a time when the role of racial issues and weak national parties left the American political party system, frankly, a sloppy mess. There were liberal Republican [...]

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