Conducted by SurveyUSA for Firedoglake, 01/12/2010 – 01/14/2010.

600 Likely voters from Ohio’s 1st Congressional district were interviewed by SurveyUSA 01/12/10 through 01/14/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC including households who voted in both 2006 and 2008 elections. Incumbent Democrat Steve Driehaus is in his first term. Driehaus defeated Steve Chabot by 5 percentage points in 2008. 2010 will be a re-match. African Americans are estimated to be 21% of likely voters in this model. For every percentage point that black turnout is higher in 2010, the Democrat will outperform these results by approximately 1 percentage point. For every percentage point that black turnout is lower in 2010, the Democrat will underperform these results by approximately 1 percentage point.

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1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

600 Likely Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Age
Margin of Sampling Error: + 4.1% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ
Approve 42% 40% 44% ** 33% 48% 42% 35% 44% 30% 85% ** ** 16% 82% 28%
Disapprove 55% 58% 53% ** 65% 51% 55% 62% 53% 67% 14% ** ** 81% 17% 69%
Not Sure 3% 2% 3% ** 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 3% 1% ** ** 3% 1% 3%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 46% 54% 3% 20% 37% 41% 22% 78% 74% 21% 1% 3% 32% 34% 32%

2. If there were an election of US House of Representatives today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Democrat Steve Driehaus and Republican Steve Chabot, who would you vote for?

600 Likely Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Age
Margin of Sampling Error: + 4.1% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ
Steve Driehaus (D) 39% 38% 40% ** 37% 43% 36% 38% 39% 29% 72% ** ** 10% 79% 27%
Steve Chabot (R) 56% 58% 54% ** 59% 53% 58% 58% 56% 68% 19% ** ** 86% 16% 69%
Undecided 5% 4% 5% ** 4% 4% 6% 4% 5% 4% 8% ** ** 4% 5% 4%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 46% 54% 3% 20% 37% 41% 22% 78% 74% 21% 1% 3% 32% 34% 32%

3. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the quality of the health care you receive?

600 Likely Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Age
Margin of Sampling Error: + 3.6% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ
Satisfied 73% 72% 74% ** 69% 70% 76% 71% 74% 77% 57% ** ** 85% 59% 77%
Dissatisfied 24% 25% 23% ** 26% 28% 20% 25% 23% 20% 37% ** ** 13% 36% 20%
Not Sure 3% 3% 4% ** 5% 2% 4% 4% 3% 3% 6% ** ** 2% 5% 3%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 46% 54% 3% 20% 37% 41% 22% 78% 74% 21% 1% 3% 32% 34% 32%

4. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with what you have to pay when you need health care?

600 Likely Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Age
Margin of Sampling Error: + 4.1% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ
Satisfied 54% 54% 54% ** 50% 49% 61% 50% 55% 59% 35% ** ** 65% 39% 60%
Dissatisfied 43% 43% 43% ** 46% 49% 36% 46% 42% 38% 61% ** ** 32% 58% 37%
Not Sure 2% 2% 3% ** 4% 2% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% ** ** 3% 2% 3%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 46% 54% 3% 20% 37% 41% 22% 78% 74% 21% 1% 3% 32% 34% 32%

5. There are many pieces to the health care reform bill that is being considered by Congress. One change, called the individual mandate, would require every American to carry health insurance, whether they want insurance or not. Are you familiar with this piece of the legislation?

600 Likely Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Age
Margin of Sampling Error: + 3.7% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ
Yes 71% 77% 66% ** 73% 78% 62% 75% 70% 74% 58% ** ** 75% 60% 79%
No 27% 22% 32% ** 23% 21% 35% 22% 29% 24% 39% ** ** 24% 37% 19%
Not Sure 2% 1% 3% ** 3% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 4% ** ** 1% 3% 2%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 46% 54% 3% 20% 37% 41% 22% 78% 74% 21% 1% 3% 32% 34% 32%

6. Is it a good idea or a bad idea to require Americans to carry health insurance?

600 Likely Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Age
Margin of Sampling Error: + 4.1% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ
Good Idea 49% 45% 52% ** 41% 49% 52% 43% 51% 40% 78% ** ** 32% 78% 34%
Bad Idea 46% 50% 42% ** 53% 46% 43% 52% 44% 54% 19% ** ** 62% 17% 59%
Not Sure 5% 5% 6% ** 6% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 4% ** ** 5% 5% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 46% 54% 3% 20% 37% 41% 22% 78% 74% 21% 1% 3% 32% 34% 32%

7. Under one proposal, if a person does not carry health insurance from a private insurance company, they would be fined up to 2% of their income. Is this fair, or unfair?

600 Likely Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Age
Margin of Sampling Error: + 3.7% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ
Fair 22% 26% 19% ** 22% 24% 20% 23% 22% 20% 28% ** ** 15% 29% 21%
Unfair 70% 67% 72% ** 73% 70% 68% 73% 69% 73% 59% ** ** 77% 61% 72%
Not Sure 8% 7% 9% ** 5% 6% 12% 5% 9% 7% 12% ** ** 8% 10% 7%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 46% 54% 3% 20% 37% 41% 22% 78% 74% 21% 1% 3% 32% 34% 32%

8. Thinking about the proposal that requires everyone to either carry private health insurance or be fined, are you strongly in favor, somewhat in favor, somewhat opposed or strongly opposed?

600 Likely Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Age
Margin of Sampling Error: + 4.1% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ
Strongly in Favor 13% 15% 12% ** 11% 15% 13% 11% 14% 12% 18% ** ** 7% 22% 10%
Somewhat in Favor 26% 25% 27% ** 22% 28% 26% 23% 27% 23% 38% ** ** 21% 34% 22%
Somewhat Opposed 17% 12% 22% ** 15% 14% 22% 14% 18% 15% 25% ** ** 18% 21% 13%
Strongly Opposed 37% 42% 32% ** 42% 38% 33% 43% 35% 43% 16% ** ** 44% 19% 49%
Not Sure 7% 6% 8% ** 11% 6% 6% 10% 6% 7% 3% ** ** 9% 5% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 46% 54% 3% 20% 37% 41% 22% 78% 74% 21% 1% 3% 32% 34% 32%

9. Would you prefer Representative Steve Driehaus to vote for the version of the health care law that includes the requirement to carry private health insurance, to vote for a version of health care reform that does NOT include this requirement, or to vote against any health care bill?

600 Likely Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Age
Margin of Sampling Error: + 4.1% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ
For Bill With Requirement 28% 30% 26% ** 19% 31% 28% 21% 29% 21% 47% ** ** 14% 48% 20%
For Bill Without Requirement 28% 23% 33% ** 27% 28% 29% 27% 28% 25% 41% ** ** 23% 39% 22%
Against Any Bill 40% 44% 37% ** 49% 38% 38% 48% 38% 49% 10% ** ** 58% 10% 54%
Not Sure 4% 4% 5% ** 5% 3% 5% 4% 4% 5% 2% ** ** 5% 3% 4%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 46% 54% 3% 20% 37% 41% 22% 78% 74% 21% 1% 3% 32% 34% 32%

10. If Steve Driehaus votes to pass the version of the health care law that DOES require every American to carry private health insurance, does your opinion of Driehaus go up, go down, or stay the same?

600 Likely Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Age
Margin of Sampling Error: + 4.1% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ
Goes Up 14% 15% 13% ** 6% 17% 14% 8% 16% 12% 20% ** ** 5% 27% 10%
Goes Down 48% 53% 43% ** 51% 50% 44% 50% 47% 54% 25% ** ** 60% 23% 62%
Stays the Same 36% 31% 41% ** 39% 32% 39% 38% 36% 32% 52% ** ** 34% 47% 27%
Not Sure 2% 2% 3% ** 5% 1% 2% 5% 2% 2% 3% ** ** 2% 3% 1%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 46% 54% 3% 20% 37% 41% 22% 78% 74% 21% 1% 3% 32% 34% 32%

11. If Steve Driehaus votes to pass the version of the health care law that DOES require every American to carry private health insurance, and in return brings additional federal money to Ohio’s 1st congressional district, does your opinion of Driehaus go up, go down, or stay the same?

600 Likely Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Age
Margin of Sampling Error: + 4.1% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ
Goes Up 18% 21% 15% ** 12% 21% 17% 13% 19% 15% 27% ** ** 9% 32% 13%
Goes Down 42% 49% 37% ** 49% 42% 40% 48% 41% 49% 22% ** ** 54% 20% 55%
Stays the Same 36% 28% 43% ** 33% 34% 40% 33% 37% 34% 46% ** ** 35% 43% 30%
Not Sure 4% 2% 5% ** 6% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3% 6% ** ** 3% 5% 3%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 46% 54% 3% 20% 37% 41% 22% 78% 74% 21% 1% 3% 32% 34% 32%

12. Assume Steve Driehaus votes to pass the version of the health care law that DOES require every American to carry private health insurance. If there were an election for US House of Representatives and the only two candidates on the ballot were Democrat Steve Driehaus and Republican Steve Chabot, who would you vote for?

600 Likely Voters All Gender Age <50 / 50+ Race Age
Margin of Sampling Error: + 4% Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/Ot Republic Democrat Independ
Steve Driehaus (D) 38% 35% 40% ** 34% 41% 37% 35% 39% 26% 76% ** ** 9% 78% 25%
Steve Chabot (R) 56% 60% 53% ** 63% 54% 56% 61% 55% 68% 19% ** ** 86% 17% 70%
Undecided 6% 5% 7% ** 4% 5% 7% 5% 6% 6% 5% ** ** 5% 6% 5%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Composition of Likely Voters 100% 46% 54% 3% 20% 37% 41% 22% 78% 74% 21% 1% 3% 32% 34% 32%

** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.

Statement of Methodology

How this poll was conducted: This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT, unless otherwise indicated on the individual poll report. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Within the report, you will find: the geography that was surveyed; the date(s) interviews were conducted and the news organization(s) that paid for the research. The number of respondents who answered each question and the margin of sampling error for each question are provided. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S.Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.