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February 28, 2012

Final Polls Say Michigan Primary as Close as Possible

Posted in: Michigan

With people currently going to the polls and voting today, the Michigan GOP primary race couldn’t be closer.  Two final polls of the state show the race essentially tied, with only a single point separating Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. The final PPP has Santorum leading by one point and Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll has Romney ahead by one.

Public Policy Polling:
Rick Santorum 38%
Mitt Romney 37%
Ron Paul 14%
Newt Gingrich 9%
Someone else/Not sure 2%

Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll:
Mitt Romney 37%
Rick Santorum 36%
Newt Gingrich 9%
Ron Paul 9%
Undecided 10%

With the race this close, it is likely to be a very late night waiting for returns to come in.

When watching the Michigan returns, it will be important to see not only who is winning but how they are winning. Most of the delegates are handed out based on performance in each congressional district, so a broad showing of support is better for the candidate.

One interesting thing in PPP polling is that since the race is so incredibly close, the plan by some Democrats to vote for Santorum to hurt Romney could actually make a difference. Michigan is an open primary state, so anyone can vote in  today’s GOP primary. From PPP:

Much has been made of Democratic efforts to turn out the vote for Santorum and we see evidence that’s actually happening. Romney leads with actual Republican voters, 43-38. But Santorum’s up 47-10 with Democratic voters, and even though they’re only 8% of the likely electorate that’s enough to put him over the top.

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