Senator Kay Hagan is in a tight race for reelection

Democratic Senator Kay Hagan’s run for re-election in North Carolina is shaping up to be one of the closest and most important elections of the cycle. Two new polls out this week show Hagan with only a tiny lead over Republican Thom Tillis and indicates that the Libertarian candidate possibly a big factor.

According to the Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll, Hagan leads but with only 45 percent among likely voters. Tillis is currently about 43 percent and Libertarian Sean Haugh stands at 5 percent.

Similarly, PPP also found Hagan with a single digit lead. In their poll Hagan gets 42 percent, Tillis is at 38 percent and Haugh is at 8 percent.

The entire race could hinge on whether or not Haugh’s support holds up as we get closer to the election. Suffolk found his supporters lean towards Tillis as their second choice by a margin of 54 percent to 35 percent, which is why when PPP ask people who they would vote if Haugh weren’t on the ballot Hagan’s lead drops to just one point.

Traditionally, support for third party candidates does tend to fade right before the election, but Tillis might have a hard time enticing away Haugh’s supporters. Both polls found that Tillis is very unpopular. His overall favorably rating was 24/39 in the Suffolk poll and 28/48 in the PPP survey.