Republicans hold the advantage this November because they are more likely to vote

If the Congressional election were held today Democrats would have a seven-point edge according to a new Fox News poll. In the generic ballot Democrats lead 46 percent to 39 percent among registered voters.

As always, though, the big problem for Democrats remains convincing their potential supporters to vote. When you look only at voters who say they are interested in voting this November Republicans are winning 45 percent to 44 percent. That is a huge enthusiasm gap.

The Democrats problem appears to be two fold. To begin with the groups which support them, like young people, tend to be less reliable voters in general while in recent years Republicans have solidified a strong advantage with Seniors, who are a reliable voting bloc.

Despite following politics professionally, I still find it tough to understand what the Democratic message is this year. What is the simple reason people should turn up to vote for federal Democrats? What will voting for them accomplish? Raising the minimum wage is one of the few concrete proposals they talk about, but since Senate Democrats didn’t get rid of the filibuster for legislation there is a good chance Democrats would still not achieve anything even if voters gave them a win.

Republicans at least have the message that taking the Senate will let them further put the brakes on President Obama. It is not the best message but it is something easy to understand and something they could be expected to deliver on.

Image by DonkeyHotey under Creative Commons license