Warner has a very impressive 59 percent to 23 percent favorability rating in Virginia, according to a new poll from Roanake College. That is one of the strongest numbers for a sitting senator anywhere. As a result Warner starts the race with an impressive 30 point lead. At this point Warner is at 56 percent support while Gillespie is at just 29 percent.
Obviously, the race will tighten up some as the election draws closer, but it is extremely difficult to beat a very popular senator which well over half the electorate already plans to vote for.
Unless there is a major scandal that really tears down Warner’s image, it is going to be almost impossible for Gillespie to find an opening.