One of the many states that could cause problems for Democrats this November is Iowa since Sen. Tom Harkin (D) is retiring. In this open seat Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley holds a solid, but shrinking, lead over the entire Republican field. From PPP:
PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds that the US Senate race has narrowed since the summer, but that Democrat Bruce Braley continues to hold a clear lead over all of his Republican opponents. In July Braley led the GOP field by an average of 11 points. Now it’s an average of 7 points: he leads Matt Whitaker 40/34, Joni Ernst and Mark Jacobs 41/35, and Sam Clovis 42/34. At least part of Braley’s leads at this point is a product of name recognition- 56% of voters know enough about him to have formed an opinion, where none of the Republican hopefuls have more than 25% familiarity.
Democrats really need to hold Iowa if they want to maintain the Senate, and for now it looks like they will. If this Iowa race starts turning towards the GOP, though, that would be a sign the Democrats are in some real trouble.