The poll found McAuliffe with 46 percent of the likely vote, Republican Ken Cuccinelli at 39 percent, and Libertarian Robert Sarvis with 10 percent. This is basically unchanged since earlier this month when the same poll found McAuliffe leading 47 percent to 39 percent.
What continues to drive McAuliffe’s lead is his strong position with women. McAuliffe is winning the female vote 49 percent to 35 percent. The McAuliffe campaign has relentlessly attacked Cuccinelli over his hard right position on issues like abortion and it has proven to be a very successful strategy.
If voters currently backing Sarvis were to abandon him at the last moment, which is common in first-past-the-post elections, it would not really affect the state of the race. Among Sarvis voters 50 percent pick McAuliffe as their second choice while 42 percent back Cuccinelli.
Photo by Gage Skidmore under Creative Commons license