There is even more evidence this government shutdown is doing significant damage to the Republican brand. District level polling by PPP for Moveon.org shows Democrats now have lead in enough districts to take the House. Currently Democrats are 17 seats away from a majority. From Moveon.org:
The surveys, commissioned and paid for by MoveOn.org Political Action, show Republican incumbents behind among registered voters in head-to-head contests with generic Democratic challengers in 17 districts. In four other districts, the incumbent Republican falls behind a generic Democratic candidate after respondents are told that the Republican incumbent supported the government shutdown. In only three districts do Republican incumbents best generic Democratic challengers after voters are told the incumbent supported the government shutdown.
Twenty four districts were surveyed: CA-31, CO-06, FL-02, FL-10, FL-13, IA-03, IA-04, IL-13, KY-06, MI-01, MI-07,MI-11, NY-19, OH-14, PA-07, PA-08, WI-07, CA-10, NY-11, NY-23, VA-02, CA-21, NV-03, OH-06.
Obviously, this is a poll conducted for a partisan group so it should be taken with a grain of salt. It also test named incumbents against generic Democrats. A generic candidate will often do better than a named candidate because a “generic candidate” by definition has no personal baggage. There are no embarrassing dick pics of a “generic” candidate floating around.
That said all the public polling data over the past two weeks shows this shutdown is hurting the Republican party. The only real question is how badly.