This is nearly identical to the results of a PPP poll released earlier this week. It found McAuliffe with a four point lead.
The main factor driving McAuliffe’s lead is his strong support among women. While Cuccinelli has an eight point lead among men, McAuliffe has a 16 point lead among women. McAuliffe has made hitting Cuccinelli on his extreme anti-abortion stance a part of his campaign and the strategy appears to be working. McAuliffe is banking on the “war on women” narrative being a real winner in Virginia.
The poll also found that support for same-sex marriage had grown quickly in the commonwealth. A slim majority of voters (50 percent) in Virginia now support same-sex marriage, while only 43 percent oppose it. The chances of the Virginia changing its marriage laws in the near future, though, remain remote. Even if McAuliffe wins, gerrymandering has given Republicans a near lock on the House of Delegates.
Photo by GCC Workforce & Community Education under Creative Commons license