The final Suffolk University poll released today found Markey at 52 percent compared to Gomez at 42 percent. This is in line with the other recent polling of the race. All public polls released over the past few days have found Markey’s lead ranging from as low as eight points to as high as 20 points.
While low turnout special elections are harder to poll, both the size and constancy of Markey’s lead means he is the overwhelming favorite tomorrow. The probability he will win the special election is close to 100 percent.
Gomez has run a decent campaign. Most polls found that Gomez has maintained a narrowly positive favorable rating and he actually has the lead among Independents, but he can’t overcome the inherent partisan dynamics in the state. Massachusetts is one of the most Democratic states in the country and that has proven to be an almost insurmountable advantage for Markey.
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