With the special election for South Carolina’s 1st Congressional district taking place tomorrow the race couldn’t be closer. According to a new PPP poll former Gov. Mark Sanford holds a single point lead over Democrats Elizabeth Colbert Busch. From PPP:
PPP’s final poll of the special election in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District finds a race that’s too close to call, with Republican Mark Sanford leading Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch 47-46. The 1 point lead for Sanford represents a 10 point reversal from PPP’s poll of the race two weeks ago, when Colbert Busch led by 9 points at 50-41.
Sanford has gotten back into the race by nationalizing it and painting Colbert Busch as a liberal. A plurality of voters in the district- 47%- say they think Colbert Busch is a liberal compared to 43% who characterize her as ideologically ‘about right.’ Colbert Busch’s favorability rating has dropped a net 19 points compared to 2 weeks ago, from +25 then at 56/31 to +6 now at 50/44.
Despite Sanford’s many problems and incredible baggage he is still able to lead in the 1st district – an extremely Republican leaning part of the country. It has a Cook PVI of R+11. Colbert Busch is running much better than Democrat should in such a Republican heavily district but in the end it might not be enough to make up for the huge partisan disadvantage she faces.
It should be noted that special election with their unusual turnout are often difficult to poll, which is why we have only PPP survey this race. With the contest this close it could easily go either way tomorrow.
Screen shot from Mark Sanford campaign video