The good news for Democrats is they hold a modest lead in the latest generic ballot polling. According to Quinnipiac, if the election were held today 41 percent would vote for a Democratic candidate for Congress and only 37 percent would for a Republican candidate.
The poll also found that Americans have grown tired of endless gridlock created by divided government. A plurality of 48 percent would prefer to have one party completely in control of Washington, while 41 percent would prefer divided government. Theoretically, this could slightly benefit Democrats next year since the Presidency can’t change hands but control of Congress could.
The bad news for Democrats is that even winning the popular vote for the House by a four point margin will probably not be enough. Thanks to natural sorting and Republicans strong gerrymandering advantage after the 2010 election, it would take a massive victory for Democrats to even win a slim majority in the House. According to an analysis by FairVote, even a historically large Democratic vote might still leave Democrats in the minority.
For example, in 2012 Democrats House candidates actually received one percent more of the vote than Republicans, yet Republicans ended up with more than a 30 seat advantage. To win the House Democrats don’t just need to beat Republicans they need to crush them.