Elizabeth Colbert Busch

Despite the strong Republican leanings of South Carolina’s 1st Congressional district, Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch may actually stand a good chance of winning the special election scheduled for May 7th. Colbert Busch is best known as the sister of the Colbert Report’s host Stephen Colbert. According to a new poll by PPP, she holds a two point lead over former Gov. Mark Sanford and is tied with Curtis Bostic. From PPP:

PPP’s first look at the special election in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District finds a toss up race. Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch leads Republican Mark Sanford 47-45 and ties Curtis Bostic at 43.

This is a Republican leaning district and Barack Obama’s approval rating in it is only 41% with 57% of voters disapproving of him. But Democrats are far more unified than the Republicans are. Busch is winning 87-89% of the Democratic vote while Sanford (76%) and Bostic (72%) are both earning less than 80% of the GOP vote. Busch is also up by 16-18 points with independent voters.

Sanford and Bostic will face each other in a run off election next week because no Republican won more than 50 percent in the Republican primary. Sanford got more votes in the first round and is the favorite in the run off.

One word of caution about the results: Special elections tend to have a very low turnout so they can be difficult to poll accurately.

Screenshot from Elizabeth Colbert Busch campaign video