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The 2012 election just ended but already there is polling of the 2016 Presidential contest. Just today there is a poll out by PPP which shows Hillary Clinton and VP Joe Biden leading a potential Democratic primary field. From PPP:
57% of Democrats would like Clinton to be their candidate in 2016. Only Joe Biden at 16% also hits double digits. Beyond them it’s Andrew Cuomo and Elizabeth Warren at 4%, Martin O’Malley at 3%, Deval Patrick and Mark Warner at 2%, and Kirsten Gillibrand and Brian Schweitzer at 1%.
If Clinton and Biden sit it out, it’s an incredibly wide open race. Cuomo gets 19%, Warren 16%, O’Malley 7%, Patrick 6%, Gillibrand 5%, Warner 4%, and Schweitzer 2% but the big winner is ‘undecided’ at 40%. The high level of indecision is a function of most of the Democrats being relatively unknown- Warren (60%) and Cuomo (56%) have slightly over 50% name recognition, but none of the others are over 30%.
From a horse race or election result prediction perspective these numbers have basically little real value, but that doesn’t mean what is happening in the “2016 race” is completely without meaning at this time. The politicians that may want to be president are already taking 2016 very seriously and many of them, like say Governor Cuomo or Senator Gillibrand, currently hold significantly power.
What roles potential candidates think they need to play to be viable in 2016 could significantly influence what votes they cast, what bills they veto, and what policies they champion at this moment. The leverage points activists and lobbyists can use against a governor with an eye on a presidential run are very different from the leverage those same people have over a governor that is only interested in re-election.
The fact that the top contenders at this moment are two Obama administration officials, Clinton and Biden, could give that second-tier a real incentive to try to stand apart from the administration. Either by being noticeably more liberal or conservative in specific issues.
Much of the speculation about an election almost four years off is worthless nonsense, but that doesn’t mean people should completely overlook how that election could affect the important decisions some people in power are making right now.
Photo by Rennett Stowe under Creative Commons license
12 Comments
Many of the NY papers are saying that Andy Cuomo’s State of the State speech this week was really the kickoff speech of his presidential race.
Is there any way we can get a candidate from the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party?
It should be noted that Biden and Clinton will be the elder statesmen in this donkey race. I’m not so sure the demographics and the stars of 2016 will align with the DLC crowd. If the economy doesn’t turn up it won’t matter, either. The disasters will continue until the next collapse occurs. Then all bets will be off for 80% of the the populace. Yikes.
But… but…
elections don’t matter…
or so I’ve been told.
Ha! Had the same thought. Now where did I hear that?
But then again, you know, this will be a Very Important Election, Perhaps The Most Important Evarz®.
Not sure what democrat in his/her right mind could possibly be more conservative, but I’m sure someone will try.
Yes, vote Green. Seriously, there is no Democratic party. The sooner we adjust to that fact, the sooner we get our country back.
And if Cuomo was worried about the Democratic base in 2016, he would not talk about privatizing utility companies and he would not be waging war on public employees. There is no Democratic party.
re: Cuomo, don’t forget the fast track for fracking. Another fake, though I’ll admit he’s relatively good at it.
I ws amazed to listen to parts of that speech. Cuomo tawks like a street thug. What an incredibly inarticulate, poorly accented public speaker he is!
2016 seems far out there for me. I’m more concerned about the 2014 Dem super shellacking when Obama kills the last of the New Deal. But then they’ll just say it happened because “Obama wasn’t conservative enough” just like they did in 2010.
As for 2016, I’ll be voting Green (again) or maybe for Jesse Ventura if he runs.
I’m for Al Franken … media experience, name recognition (at least in the over 60 group who watched him on SNL) … what’s not to like?
It’s usually a bad sign for a candidate when I support them, but I like those numbers. (Hint: Am not a Junior Cuomo person.)