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Senator Corey Booker?
One thing that makes New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s re-election prospects next year look so good, beyond his currently record high job approval rating and strong showing in potential horse race polls, is that in New Jersey it makes a lot of sense for top-tier Democrats to simply wait.
New Jersey is inherently a blue state without a deep Republican bench. While there are many states where a Democrat running for state-wide office would almost assuredly face a tough Republican opponent, regardless which year or for what office they chose to run, that is not the case in New Jersey. Christie is a unique strong Republican candidate in the state at the moment. Top-tier Democrats in New Jersey can reasonably expect that if they wait only a few years they will face a much weaker Republican opponent. Why spend all the energy on a race that looks like a guaranteed losswhen there are likely to be much easier races in the relatively near future?
PPP has some new polling out that shows how much better Newark Mayor Cory Booker would do if he waited to run for Senate in 2014 instead of running against Christie in 2013 for governor, but the same basic dynamic likely applies to every high profile potential Democratic candidate in the state. From PPP on the 2013 gubernatorial race:
Christie would far outpace any of the Democrats who have been discussed as potential candidates for Governor. He leads Cory Booker 50-36, Richard Codey 53-31, Steve Sweeney 57-20, and Barbara Buono 60-20.
From PPP on the 2014 Senate race:
Booker would be even stronger than Lautenberg in a head to head match up with Guadagno, leading her 52 to 29. 48% of New Jersey voters have a favorable opinion of Booker to only 20% with a negative one. He’s very popular with Democrats (60/13) and independents (45/21) and even comes close to breaking even with Republicans at 29/34.
The fact that at this moment simply waiting seems like the most viable option for top-tier Democrats in the state which could easily result in Christie facing a relatively weak challenger. Christie’s post-Sandy bump could fade, but this is the time when potential challengers need to decid if they are going to run or not.
4 Comments
Ah, living, as we do, at a “highly-charged” time when “winning” is considered to be the “all” that there “is” to politics, to “leadership”, and to the future, this is certainly a most interesting post, Jon.
Clearly, Chris Christie is the “bright” and “pragmatic” politician of the current “moment”, in New Jersey, and he is, of course, a Republican … which means, or has come to mean, certain things … not necessarily “good”, as far as many as FDL are concerned, we may imagine. Nonetheless, Chris Christie is “set” to “win” the governorship next year and wise Democrats are much too wise and canny to challenge a likely winner.
You mention Corey Booker, as the Democrat most likely to succeed in the Senate “race” of 2014. Now, Booker is a Democrat and, as a Democrat, certain “things” are assumed about him … mostly “good”, by those at FDL who are partisan Democrats and who will argue, whatever and regardless of what, specifically, might be wrong with Booker, that he will be the “better” candidate than ANY Republican. That “goes”, almost without saying.
For a moment, rather than discussing those political “things”, those party-line, tried and true homilies, about “winning” and the “lesser of evils”, or the legacy party “philosophies, perhaps it would actually be useful to ponder what some consider to be Booker’s baggage or personal “agenda”?
Consider what Black Agenda Report has to say of Booker, for instance. While some might suggest that only black folk would, or should, be interested in this perspective, I think that a bit short-sighted. So, in the spirit of offering more than superficial political horse-race analysis, I link to the following:
http://www.blackagendareport.com/content/cory-booker-second-coming-obama-only-worse
Of course, many may consider this to be simply hateful, or sour grapes, yet I think that such perspectives have merit in fleshing-out an understanding of a candidate as a person and as a potential “representative of the people”. What do you think, Jon, is there any value in the presentation of a number of views about a candidate beyond which legacy party they “belong” to?
Anyhow, I consider that there is, and hope that others, one or two, might agree that the people really do need more information about candidates than what their prospective chances of winning might be, even if that constitutes the principle interest of political pundits, political analysts, and the party faithful … for the rest of us, that might simply not be good enough, sufficient enough, or reason enough to vote or not to vote for particular candidates … whatever we might otherwise be “led” to “believe”.
DW
Christie’s approval would plummet as quickly as it skyrocketed if he goes back to acting like a Republican.
Living in NJ I get to see all of this rather closely. I don’t like christie, but I believe that he insured his second term by his actions during Sandy; he was ubiquitous in the hard hit areas of the state and had some photo ops with o. christie seemed to be much more active and involved than cuomo. Power was restored much more quickly in NJ than in NY.
Having said that, christie and booker are very close in many ways. The BAR that DW linked above is very indicative of booker. booker has no real interest in public education and in most ways he and christie follow the same path. I neither want to see them individually as gov or pres.
If this election really is hopeless for the Democrats, I sincerely hope that fact pressures progressive minded people in this state to support an independent or third party challenge from the left. The present state of affairs here is beyond pathetic.
We have very nearly 1,200 people per sq mi and still most places outside of the biggest cities are underserved by a public transportation system which consists of a few buses which don’t run often enough & a rail network which has barely been expanded since the state took over the few dying commuter railroad lines which remained in 1976. The commuter trains run even more infrequently and thanks to poor planning and maintenance were badly battered by Hurricane Sandy.
Despite rising energy costs & the obvious consequences of climate change making themselves known, we still largely allow opportunistic developers & national chains to set the development agenda: clearing the way for more sprawl and architectural abortions which do nothing to serve the needs of the community they inhabit.
Our infrastructure is rotting and decrepit (or sometimes just shoddily constructed in the first place!) and nobody seems interested in doing anything about it. Just yesterday, a railroad bridge in Gloucester County failed for the second time since 2009, spilling at least 25,000 gallons of vinyl chloride into a creek which drains into nearby Delaware Bay. Despite this and the disproportionately severe damage inflicted by Sandy in some areas that did not get bear the brunt of the storm, Christie gets high marks for his disaster preparedness and quick response.
Despite an environment that was severely degraded over the past 150 or so years, state law still allows polluters to avoid cleaning up tainted sites unless the property is sold or leased for at least 99 years!
Our state universities and colleges are controlled by real estate moguls, financial & insurance executives, and major law firm partners.
The mob rackets which controlled industries like waste disposal were never held accountable and almost certainly are involved in unsavory activities today.
This is to name a few problems offhand. Why anyone would support either party in this state when they have respectively given us Jon Corzine and Chris Christie is far beyond me…