Obama OhioIf you are honestly evaluating the presidential race it is not “too close to call,” a “dead heat” or “effectively tied.” In the important swing states that will decide the election the polling is near unanimous that President Obama has the lead.

In swing state after swing state Obama holds a modest but significant edge in the polling averages. According to Real Clear Politics, Obama has a 4.2 point lead in Wisconsin, a 2 point lead in New Hampshire, a 3 point lead in Iowa, a 2.8 point in Nevada and a 2.9 point lead in Ohio.

Not only does Obama have a sizableĀ  lead in the polling averages, but effectively every single poll in a critical swing state has found Obama ahead. Obama leads in 11 of the last 12 poll of Ohio with a single Rasmussen poll showing the race tied. In Wisconsin no poll has found Romney with a lead since August. All five polls taken of New Hampshire in the last week have Obama winning. Romney has not led in a single poll of Nevada since May.

Even though the national polling shows the race to be close, that does not matter because we use an idiotic electoral college system. When looking at the polls that do matter, Obama has a clear and consistent edge in enough swing states to get to 270.

Either one of two things is going on. Either there is some incredibly strange dynamic that is causing basically every pollster in America to be wrong or Obama is going to win tomorrow. The smart money should be on the latter.