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If you are honestly evaluating the presidential race it is not “too close to call,” a “dead heat” or “effectively tied.” In the important swing states that will decide the election the polling is near unanimous that President Obama has the lead.
In swing state after swing state Obama holds a modest but significant edge in the polling averages. According to Real Clear Politics, Obama has a 4.2 point lead in Wisconsin, a 2 point lead in New Hampshire, a 3 point lead in Iowa, a 2.8 point in Nevada and a 2.9 point lead in Ohio.
Not only does Obama have a sizable lead in the polling averages, but effectively every single poll in a critical swing state has found Obama ahead. Obama leads in 11 of the last 12 poll of Ohio with a single Rasmussen poll showing the race tied. In Wisconsin no poll has found Romney with a lead since August. All five polls taken of New Hampshire in the last week have Obama winning. Romney has not led in a single poll of Nevada since May.
Even though the national polling shows the race to be close, that does not matter because we use an idiotic electoral college system. When looking at the polls that do matter, Obama has a clear and consistent edge in enough swing states to get to 270.
Either one of two things is going on. Either there is some incredibly strange dynamic that is causing basically every pollster in America to be wrong or Obama is going to win tomorrow. The smart money should be on the latter.
23 Comments
The smart money is still raining down on Ohio. Not one single commercial on any local station that isn’t politics. I’m choking on Rmoney/Mandel mailers. If I weren’t blocking blocked numbers, I doubt my home phone would even be usable.
The smart money seems to know that there’s no way Mitt can win if he loses Ohio.
I just want this to be over. I want my tv, my mailbox, and my telephone back.
Boxturtle (I also want a pony)
Has anyone conducted a poll of likely-to-be-allowed-or-able-to voters?
Has anybody polled the people who handle the voting machines? That’s where you’ll find the most accurate results.
Anybody stop to think that maybe the media is making this out to be such a close race because they’re preparing the populous to not question the results when Romney steals it?
According to Nate Silver, there is a 15% chance that all those state polls are wrong.
A “we don’t take conspiracy theories seriously, and neither should you ” story from NPR
on the voting machines in Ohio. It both tryies to pour cold water on valid concerns
and completely ignores the larger voter suppression context.
If you go to the Princeton Election Consortium’s website, Sam Wang says that Obama will win the popular vote as well, by around a 2% margin.
Of course, this assumes that voter suppression by Republican governors in Ohio and Florida doesn’t keep too many people away from the polls.
I don’t think anybody who CAN steal the election wants romney to win. As several of our colleagues have been preaching for months, the PTB and the MOTU are very happy with Obama and see Romney as a doofus flip-flopper. I now agree with them and am pretty sure thsat Obama will win coinvincingly taking all the swing states with the possible exception on VA and NC. MY sourcev tell me that VA is too close to tall and that Obama MAY still win that too.
May I say I hope we can alll continue to meet here and ponder the wonders of the universe. Hey, we’ll always have Iran and Syria. Here’s lookin’ at you kid.
Final pool condicted late last night at Hooters:
Obama……23%
Romney…..23%
Melody…..54%
With all due respect to Kris’s quite valid concerns about the R-Team “stealing” the election, I’m more inclined to agree with mi amigo, NCG, that Bamz is gonna win, but not big… the better to say that he has no mandate & has to continue bending into 20000 pretzels to be all bipartisan-y with his fellow GOPers blah blah blah.
I listened to about 30 seconds of “election” coverage on National Propoganda Radio yesterday, and it’s my contention that the 1%ers have made this Kabuki Show *appear* to be this gigantically “tight” horse race bc it generates lot$a moola-$chmoola for the 1% + makes the serfs believe that we “have a say,” which we don’t.
I was sitting on the fence for a bit – esp after the first debate – and thought that maybe the 1% had changed their minds & were choosing Bishop Lord High Miff as their hired gun. Now I’m back to believing it’ll be MauMau Commie Obama, who “wins” but only in a photo-finish.
Ya heard it here first!!
As the Three Stooges are wont to intone: nyuck nyuck nyuck…
Don’t exaggerate now. I saw a very nice Yuengling Beer commercial last night thanking Ohioans for making their expansion into the Ohio beer market a success. And I helped! :)
I know what you mean, though. I was actually relieved to see the obnoxious Ford guy instead of another Obomney or Senator Hangover vs the Scary Boy R-Child ad.
I don’t want to be the skunk at the garden party, but isn’t a 2 percent lead within the margin of error?
That being said, if there’s a way for the Republicans to steal the election, as they did in ’00 (Florida) and ’04 (Ohio), they will. The question, and it’s probably just a rhetorical one, is whether the Democrats will fight them if they do.
This ignores the fact that RMoney’s kid owns a bunch of voting machines in Ohio…
Whew! What a relief! It would be a shame if Obama lost, because then future presidents might be reluctant to have their own citizens murdered, start wars without Congressional approval, and spy on everyone. What a shame that would be!
Yay fascism!
That’s something I’ve mentioned. It certainly seems to me the media is in bo’s camp. We’ll see.
Quick, would one of you Groupies remind me of just one reason why Barry deserves the votes of Liberals, especially Progressives? Is it that he expanded our no fly list to 21,000 (Glenn Greenwald)? Is it because he sanctioned the torture of Bradley Manning? Is it because he’s seen to it the people who created the mess we’re in are now wealthier than ever while the rest of the Country is still in a hole?
It would have been a lot better had FDL had sat out this election, as Jane said it had.
Sorry didn’t know where to put this..
Re ARIZONA: Just heard from my Disabled elderly Aunt.. and spoke with a DES rep to confirm..
ALL/each and every Arizona food stamp recipient recently received word that thanks to the AZ government/Republicans, their food stamps will be cut by $21.00 for November..
Don’t see this written anywhere..might help turn out more angry voters!!
Say Happy Fucking Thankgsgiving to Brewer and her Hoarde.. ;(
eh? I heard on National Propoganda Radio on Friday (before I quickly changed the dial) that RMoney’s kid really, truly, honestly, fer sure fer sure, really really doesn’t “own” or have anything to do with Voting Machines anywhere, esp in Ohio!! /not snark; that’s what they said.
That’s why I changed the station…
Despite this, I still think Bamz is gonna “win,” but just my intuition, which has been known to be off-kilter now ‘n then.
eh? conservatives who are on food stamps in AZ will just go vote against their own interests, and they’ll clap ‘n cheer for Brewer. Not kidding.
Sorry for your Auntie; hope she’s ok. It’s disgusting but unsurprising.
Aren’t Democrats who believe in “the rule of law”, who believe Social Security & Medicare must NOT be cut and will vote for Obama doing EXACTLY the same thing – voting “against their own interests”? Why is one more “disgusting but unsurprising” than the other?
Enough already!
I was discussing the situation in AZ with food stamps. Period.
I really don’t appreciate you horning in here to YELL at me about Democrats blah blah blah.
If you took the time to read some of my posts, you might see that I don’t disagree with your take on things.
However, YOU are an inufferable bore, frankly. I’m tired of being *attacked* on this blog when I comment in response to something completely different, and then someone like you comes out swinging at me bc I don’t turn everything into an anti-Obama or anti-Democratic ranting tirade.
STOP. IT.
BACK. OFF.
I mean it. Get a clue. Stop attacking those who probably agree with you IF you weren’t so frickin’ disagreeable.
STOP. IT.
So bailey, just what was your previous user name here at FDL before you re-registered at the end of September?
This election is way too important to be Tribal. I could care less what people think,who they like, who they vote for, or even who wins. It’s the argument that counts, not the Polls or the perceptions.