Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) fights for his seat

One of the important federal races that looks like a true toss-up tomorrow is the Montana senate race. Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester is effectively tied with Republican challenger Rep. Dennis Rehberg. Tester is technically the incumbent but  since Rehberg is the state’s only at-large member of the House, this is more like an incumbent vs. incumbent fight.

Both have been representing the entire state in Congress and were known factors going into the race.

What little polling there is on the race is divided. The Mason-Dixon poll for the Billings Gazette has Rehberg leading with 49 percent compared to Tester at 45 percent. On the other hand the final PPP poll of the state has Tester up by two.

One of the big differences between the polls is that PPP finds Libertarian candidate Dan Cox doing much better than Mason-Dixon which had him at just 1 percent.*  PPP has Tester at 48 percent, Rehberg at 46 percent and Dan Cox at 4 percent. PPP found that Cox’s support leaning heavily towards Mitt Romney in the presidential race. There is a chance that some of Cox’s support could defect at the last minute and that would likely benefit Rehberg.

Regardless who wins in Montana, it is likely going to be extremely close. It will probably not be called until extremely late tomorrow, if at all. A race so close it results in a recount is not outside the realm of possibility in Montana.

*post corrected to indicate Cox was included in Mason-Dixon poll but had only 1% support.