gay marriage

Both Maine and Washington marriage initiatives will be close

Every time the issue same-sex marriage has appeared on a statewide ballot it has been defeated, but tomorrow that trend may finally come to an end. Ballot measures in Washington State and Maine that would legalize same-sex marriage are polling at just over 50 percent according to PPP. From PPP on Maine:

Maine’s referendum to legalize gay marriage is leading for passage by a 52/45 margin, numbers virtually unchanged from 52/44 in our last survey. What we’ve found historically with these gay marriage ballot measures though is that undecided voters tend to end up voting anti-gay so if I had to guess this is something more like a 52/48 advantage and at that point it can go either way- this is likely to be a pretty close vote.

From PPP on Washington:

Washington appears likely to approve gay marriage on Tuesday. 52% of voters say they plan to vote to approve Senate Bill 6239, while 42% are inclined to reject it. We have found that undecided voters on these marriage questions generally end up voting anti-equality but even given that it looks like a favorite for passage. Every age group supports legalizing gay marriage except for seniors, who oppose it 43/51. Washington voters are also likely to legalize marijuana on Tuesday. 53% of voters support Initiative 502 to 44% who are opposed.

It is likely voters in both states will make history by affirmatively voting in support of same-sex marriage, but it is going to be extremely close. The undecideds tend to break against change when it comes to ballot measure polling. Given the large age divide on the issue of marriage equality, the fate of both measures could depend on whether or not young voters turn out in significant numbers this year.

Photo by NobMouse under Creative Commons license