In the past few days I read that Ds have turned out 40% of highly likely voters. Rs have turned out 27% of highly likely voters.

Also, one of the tv pundits mentioned that McCain got more votes in Iowa on Election Day, though Obama won Iowa.

Do Rs simply tend to vote on election day?

Would be interesting to learn more about party affiliation tendencies…

Swing states get the most tv ads so try as they like they can’t ignore the race. Except for Ohio Mitt can’t claim African Americans are swinging the vote. Conclusion Mitt’s ads are pushing people are way and/ or Obama has some great ads.

Iowa interests me lots of White voters Mitt can’t claim African American or Hispanic voters are swinging that state. Mitt’s plan is to win with White voters. Iowa as a swing state is I am sure getting a bunch of GOP ads.
Is this all the result of Union voters? Or do we have a real ground game in the state? Or does Mitt suck that much?

It occurs to me that this parallels Obama’s campaign’s mastery of the caucus system in 2008: faced with an opponent whose campaign management seemed not to even understand how the Democratic party would choose its nominee, Team O learned the rules and played to win. Now, they’ve taken that plan on the road to the swing states in the general.

And it appears they needed to. Unlike in 2008, when the general election was never really in doubt, especially after the financial crash, the metrics in 2012 really favor Romney. It may be not only Mitt’s personal ickiness that sinks him, but his own campaign’s bad focus on the general, popular vote.

Running up the totals in states you’re sure to win counts for nothing in an Electoral College system, and all this talk of ‘expanding the map’ is just an accountant’s way of spending all this money Team R is awash in.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again.
President Obama is running the best campaign in US history!

He’s said and done everything he can do to squeeze out every possible vote!

I’m not saying he’s been the best President in US history, just that he’s running the best campaign. In fact if graded he’d get pretty poor marks for his performance in office.

4700 early votes in my Iowa county which means that virtually every eligible voter has already cast their vote.

Good campaign, piss poor president… as usual.

Big chunks of eastern Iowa are traditionally democratic which is to be expected given that it’s full of small/medium sized urban areas.

But the northeast quadrant of the state is primarily rural/small town and still democratic, much like its counterpart area across the Mississippi River in Wisconsin–I don’t know why. Just take a look at the county-level red-blue maps from 2008. There were plenty of counties in the 20,000 or so population range that Obama won.

As far as Iowa minorities go, Iowa is very white, but the black population is 3% and the hispanic population is 5%, enough I suppose to swing a close election of 1 or 2 percentage points.

I also think that some Iowans have a residual sense of pride in Obama’s 2008 election since it was his Iowa caucus win then that caused his candidacy to take off.

Luther is in Decorah, Upper Iowa in Fayette, Wartburg in Waverly. Progressive college towns who make up 25% of their local populations.

Lots of progressive votes in the 6 county area of NE Iowa.

My county officials are solidly red but voters go blue in a lot of national elections.

Stupid question here:
Are these actual vote tabulations, or are these poll numbers of how people said they voted??

Jon, How do you know who’s winning? You don’t have a clue who’s winning, why would you say that? Are you sitting this Presidential election out while someone from Obama’s team ghost writes for you? That’s the only explanation that makes sense to me.

Whoever wins the American people deserve him.

Based on the early vote count of actual early votes of swing states Mitt has to win the electoral college vote yes Obama is wining. A better argument would be to ask the question how often does early voting predict the winner in the election.
I admit we all have been assuming that a week out from the election these early voting numbers are probably telling us how the states will vote.
Find examples to prove us wrong then attack Jon.

Sorry, I wrire fast also but don’t know what the heck you mean when you say: “Based on the early vote count of actual early votes of swing states Mitt has to win the electoral college vote yes Obama is wining.”
Who has seen the actual votes? Are they printed in the newspaper? Want to defend Jon on this? Show me WHERE I can look at an ACTUAL count of the votes cast please.

Obama has failed to get legislation that truly benefits the 99% passed in Congress, except a relatively insipid stimulus package.

However, legislation that benefits the 1%, like the Obama tax increases, sailed through Congress.

And his re-election campaign is going remarkably well for a President overseeing this lousy an economy, but only in the swing states, on which his re-election depends.

I think that says a lot about where the priorities of his WH and his campaign have been.

Once upon a time, politicians would travel around asking us what we wanted and needed done (which Scott Brown actually did a few years ago.) Now, they campaign simply by telling us how great they are.

I blame us.

When did you ever see actual votes cast?