President Obama holds a small lead in Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin according to the latest NBC/WSJ/Marist polls. If Obama wins Ohio, as most of the polling now indicates he will, he would need only one or two more swing states to get to 270.
Barack Obama 49%
Mitt Romney 46%
In Both Iowa and Wisconsin, the Obama campaign has already managed to bank a large share of his vote by dominating with those who are voting early. Obama is winning early voters in Wisconsin 59 percent to 39 percent, and in Iowa Obama is carrying this group 62 percent to 35 percent.
Based on Real Clear Politics average of all state-based polls, President Obama now leads in states, giving him 290 electoral college votes. According to the state-based polling, Obama is the strong favorite.