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As of Sunday, roughly 15 percent of the national vote had already been cast according to Gallup. Among all Americans who have voted, Mitt Romney actually holds a modest lead over Barack Obama. From Gallup:
Yet, in the important swing states Obama holds a big lead in the early vote. In Nevada and Iowa significantly more Democrats than Republican have voted already. Similarly, polling in Ohio shows Obama leads 63% to 36% among people who have voted.
I often think of the national polling like a “control group” in an election experiment. It is only in the swing states that the campaigns are really active. By comparing what happens in the swing states to what is happening in the non-swing states, you can try to separate broad trends from what is actually being accomplished by the physical campaigns.
The Obama campaign has been remarkably effective at getting its supporters to vote early, but only in the states in which they are heavily invested.
Given that Romney leads nationally with early voters, one can assume that there is nothing about the demographic make up of Democrats that makes them more likely to vote early than Republicans. So the fact that Obama holds a huge lead among early voters only in the swing states strongly indicates his campaign has a vastly superior ground game.
9 Comments
Citizen Jon Walker:
I been workin’ the ground for consolidated campaigns here in Wisconsin and, while I agree generally with your premis, I would like to share an unsettling understanding of what the Obama campaign has done to the battlefield here as far as other state-wide campaigns and local down-ticket races. Obama for America has sucked the air outta the room in terms of focusin’ resources (money and people) on their own campaign at the expense of local campaigns and a very important state-wide senate race. For instance, even after 15 months of grass-roots organizing, canvasing and voter IDing for the recall, OFA has hired out of state people to coordinate the campaign and is spendin’ money on hired canvasers in areas already cultivated by the recall coalition. So now in the last couple a weeks of the big game, the consolidated campaigns for senate, congress and state representation are steppin all over each other and OFA subsidized GOTV efforts. In addition,all the money spent on outside workers in very red political subdivisions is nothin’ but a complete waste and, further, smothers local folks and workers who know the turf and are energized and trained from the recall. So instead of leveragin’ off of an almost revolutionary grass-roots organizin’ effort of the last year and a half, OFA is smotherin’ the baby in the crib and wastin’ resources that could best be spent reinforcin’ the troops where the biggest vote is in the city and suburbs of Milwaukee and in the disenfranched workin’ class areas of Superior and La Crosse. This would have required OFA to coalesce with local campaigns and mobilize the people who have already worked the turf in the recall…instead, OFA ignored local campaigns and organizers and then wasted resources on shell operations run by people who aren’t even from the state. This whole experience makes me sick because it reminds many of us who worked for Feingold in 2010 and the governor recall this year just how these corporate sponsored Democrats roll.
Keep the faith but pass the ammunition and remember to call a fascist a fascist!!
If Obama actually does win this state it won’t be because of OFA but because Tammy Baldwin saved his bacon…if Baldwin loses, so does Obama.
I live in Northern Virginia and see all of the enthusiasm here on the Romney side. The Romney phone calls to my home land line outnumber Obama calls 5 to 1. Romney signs must outnumber Obama 10 to 1 or even more, and the signs are everywhere. This is an area that is more traditionally Republican, although it went for Obama significantly in 2008. It sure looks like a Romney win in this county – one that Obama needs to carry the state.
If signs and local calls are a sign of organized GOTV, Obama’s team is under performing here.
Or, more simply, that he’s invested more of his resources in (this single facet of) GOTV in these (few, selected) states. These votes don’t count any more than ones Romney may win at other times. The presumption of success without calculating the resources used is just silly.
Try not to sound TOO much like an O-bot hack, Jon. We have T-Borg for that, and he’s probably jealous of his niche. Peace.
Is the repudiation of “ing” just a personal thin’ with you? I stopped readin’ your comment about halfway through because of your determination to drop all the “g”s from your word endins.
And that, little boys and girls, is how you can expect the “free press” to account for the final Green and other non-DNC/GOP vote—-as “other.” I’m trying with all my might not to add some enraged obscenities. How about “goodnight democracy” instead.
Obama is going to lose. The Voter demands that alot of money be spent to razzle dazzle them into a vote and the corporations are out in full force. The only hope that I have is that after the Republicans take this election, they wipe out every social program implemented since the 1950s . Put forth their austerity agenda and throw these stupid Americans off these programs along with these Republicans who use these social services and then maybe we will be done with this “republican conservative thing” once and for all .
Citizen timncguy:
I know this is late and probably won’t be read but my question is “who the f**k are you” but maybe the more interestin’ question is “who the f**k cares”. If you don’t like my syntax then you are free to stop readin’ and for the record, I didn’t adress my remarks to you anyway so maybe you get the hint that I realy could gice a big shit what you like or don’t…unbelievable!
You must be a newbie here. Norske was one of the original and one of the most productive firepups. It is an honour to see him back here. He doesn’t check in all that often anymore. Too busy doing real politics. Welcome home old feller.. You and Sourhern Dragon are (in his case were) the best.
That/’s the least of it. How about a full-fledged police state with exit visas so you can’t get out?