A new NPR poll highlights what has become the main dynamic of the Presidential race. Their national poll shows Mitt Romney with a one point lead, but in the 12 swing states President Obama has a four-point advantage. From NPR:
The poll adds evidence that the Oct. 3 debate between the two men redefined the race. But the movement toward Romney that emerged after that night in Denver also seems to have stalled after the race drew even — leaving the outcome difficult to call.
The former governor had a 1 percentage point lead overall in the head-to-head preference poll. The president led by 4 percentage points in the smaller sample of 466 voters in 12 states: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. Both the Romney lead and the Obama lead were within the poll’s margin of error.
While I think polling swing states as a group is a bit silly, this NPR survey very simply demonstrates Romney’s problem. Even though the national polling averages having been showing Romney with a small lead, Obama is still ahead in enough of the critical swing states. Since we use an idiotic electoral college system these swing states are all that matters.
It would seem that Obama simply has the far more effective political campaign. In the parts of the county where neither campaign has really been active Romney is doing well, but in the places where both campaigns are heavily active Obama appears to be over-performing. Obama having the more dominant campaign structure seems to be paying off.