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Obama beats Romney in GOTV efforts
President Obama appears to hold a significant edge in early voting in basically every important swing state, which should given him a built-in advantage heading into November 6th. The Obama campaign ground game has been very successful at convincing Democrats and Obama supporters to cast their ballots well ahead of election day.
In the all-important swing state of Ohio, roughly 20 percent of the vote has already been cast. While the race is basically tied overall, Obama is up by double-digits among those who have cast their ballots already. According to Quinnipiac polling, 54 percent of Ohioans who have already voted supported Obama while just 39 percent supported Romney. Similarly, PPP found Obama leading among those who have already voted 66 percent to 34 percent.
Ohio isn’t the only state where polling shows Obama has already banked a large share of his vote. In Iowa, roughly a third of the vote has already be cast and PPP found Obama is winning the early vote 64 percent to 35 percent.
In other swing states the partisan breakdown of absentee ballots/early vote strongly indicates Obama has a big edge. According to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, 51,120 votes have already been cast by registered Democrats while only 37,800 votes have been cast by Republicans. Early voting in North Carolina paints a similar story. In the first four days of early voting, significantly more Democrats than Republicans cast ballots. According to an analysis by Michael Bitzer, “In looking at the trend lines for registered Democrats, Republicans and Unaffiliated voters casting ballots, all of them are above their 2008 numbers — with Democrats making considerable totals added to their numbers from four years ago.”
The Obama ground game is significantly larger than Romney’s and it is clear from the early voting that it remains highly effective. Ballots cast early do count the same as ballots cast on election day but these votes for Obama are permanently locked in. On the other hand, the people planning to vote for Romney can still theoretically change their mind or end up not voting. Having much of the Democratic-leaning vote cast early also means the Obama campaign will have a smaller universe of people to focus on for get-out-the-vote efforts on election day.
Photo by OFA Virginia under Creative Commons License
17 Comments
The Ground Game is a predictable response to three successive elections in which the Republicans tried (and succeeded) to depress the Democratic vote by tying up the polls on voting day. The Republican response to Obama’s response hs been to impose voter ID and shut down the polls prior to election day, which effort has been nullified at least somewhat by the courts. What makes Obama’s ploy interesting as well as effective is that if the early voters are mostly Democrats, attempts to shut down the polls on Election Day will disproportionately disfavor Republican voters. This is trench warfare.
Considering that the Donald is planning on revealing some critical negative information tomorrow, he may find it has no bearing on any subject, if all the early voting is already in full swing.
DT is typically irrelevant anyway. G-d bless him wherever he is…. and he should stay there.
Voted early, today. It is done. So if I get killed driving to or from work, or at work, my vote will count. That is unless money is used to match death announcements with voters….
I have a daughter and a son who both deserve better than the bullshit being offered by corporate fascists wrapped in flag with bible in hand irrespective of political affiliation!
Oregon ballots have already gone out and I have voted. Nothing that I have heard or could hear mattered this time. I voted with one eye on the Supreme Court and one eye on women’s issues. There were plenty of strikes otherwise and don’t you doubt that I knew it. That said, I did my best and now we can simply observe for awhile. I’m not thrilled, but I am OK.
I wonder; does Obama have Kill List ‘Terror Tuesdays’ while on the campaign trail?
If only Obama were a Democrat, in the usual sense of the word.
The early bird gets the woim ..
The early voter gets to squoim.
Best it is to be early woined …
Did muh best with this rotten poem.
Let us all together join …
And hope to heck the rulers loin.
Of this realm its time to coin …
This motto, “We care not how others scoin …
‘Cuz we’ve all done our best to mend what has been toin.”
Vote yer conscience wherever you be,
However you may choose, we thank ye kindly.
Just so long as ya don’t vote blindly.
DW
Guy is such a dismal punk.
Alright, I’m getting a little weird but I just read all the comments and a strange wave of love for all the posters swept over me like wave. Carry on.
Yeah, I heard that too… the story Trump is Trumping up is that during college then student Obama used cocaine, and the new part of the story is the claim that he also Sold Cocaine.
2 former classmates of his are now willing to tell this story. I doubt it goes anywhere … Old tired tales.
President Obama has run the best campaign of all-time. He’s squeezing out every single vote possible, they even took out a 1 month loan from BoA for $15 million just to make sure they had cash on hand to run ads up until the last moment.
President Obama’s ground game is 5 times stronger than Romney’s, and he’s taking advantage of every edge he has, but will it be enough to win???
It’s a toss up, Ohio appears to be the key, but so many States are too close to call, which brings us back to the ground game, all he can do now is get out the vote and hope it’s enough.
When I lived in SF in the late 70s, there wasn’t anyone who DIDN’T use the stuff. I never did it again after I left the city, but. . . many wonderful times with wonderful friends. The place was awash in snow, and “selling” could often be a rather casual undertaking. There was this little white-haired woman down the street. . .
I make no assumptions about the PRESIDENT, of course.
Wonder what the terms of that loan were?
I escaped with only one night of debauchery to my name in Seattle at a bachelor’s party.
But they can just flip the electronic vote in the end.
2.5% over Libor, due 2 weeks after the election.
Be proud, Jon. You certainly helped.