While President Obama’s lead in Ohio is not large, most polls show he is winning. The latest SurveyUSA poll finds Obama with a three point lead over Mitt Romney.
Ohio
SurveyUSA (10/12-15)
Barack Obama 45%
Mitt Romney 42%
Other 3%
Undecided 9%
Beyond still holding a narrow lead, the reason the Obama campaign seems to view Ohio as their firewall is that they have already managed to bank an impressive advantage in the early voting. According to the SurveyUSA poll, roughly one fifth of the electorate has already cast their votes in Ohio. Among those who have already voted, Obama is winning 57 percent to 38 percent. To close a three point gap in overall polling Romney would need roughly a four point swing in his direction in those who have yet to vote. Everyday the number of people who could theoretically change their votes in Ohio shrinks.
If Obama can win Ohio’s 18 electoral votes he will dramatically reduce Romney’s potential paths to the necessary 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency. Thanks to polls showing a tight race in Wisconsin and Virginia, the possibility of Romney winning without Ohio has become more plausible but it would still be extremely difficult.




60 Comments
Don’t think Kasich and OH GOP leadership overseeing these elections can overcome a 3% advantage?
Disappointed. This post has been up for five minutes and no one has yet to point out that there is no difference between the candidates and how an Obama defeat will give birth to a great progressive uprising. Chomsky/random Occupy guy 2016!
To paraphrase Jon Stewart: “Because, at this time before an election, there’s no other place in the world besides Ohio.”
P.S. Ohio.
Unless Romney makes a major gaffe (definitely possible…) I think more of those 9% undecided will break for him.
well…. the fact they are changing exit polling again is cause for concern. People often talk about Republican dirty tricks like fake resgistrations and intimidation but the fact they exit polling has been changing since 2004 raises red flags for me.
Now Kerry proved at the end to be a dipshit candidate but there were some “oddities”. Seems like over the past decade there are fewer and fewer safe guards or checks.
But, but, but,
Doesn’t Mitt’s longtime friend and biz partner own all the black box voting machines in Ohio? I’m sure Greg Palast told me that.
Yep, the closer it gets, the less ground the Ohio Diebold/GOP/intimidation apparatus has to make up.
Kerry is a dipshit and when they decided they would get more from him than John Edwards that was it. Kerry told John to stop and not push for the recount or even contest any of it. Look what they did to Edwards.
Now, I’m not excusing his extra marital affair. Just saying that is a common way the republiCONS do things.
I still don’t believe in “undecideds”. It is simply not possible at this stage.
I’ll be the first. I’ve said it for years now that the most important votes for us are at the state level. We have to throw out the Teahadist, Alec, and plain crazy reCons that are helping to drag the US into the dirt pile.
Governships too!
Been there, seen that. Plus, after Romney’s revelation of his real self the other night, it is hard to say there is no difference anymore, at least at the personal level. The guy is a born dictator.
Twooph!
The problem I see is not having the third-party candidates on the ballot.
Wouldn’t want to disappoint the chairman of the board of “shoeshiners for Obama”.
But I would like to ask you a couple of questions (for about the fifth time, with no answer as yet…)
With that 79 seat majority in the House, and the 18 seat majority in the Senate, Barack Obama’s biggest accomplishment has been to do a miracle-of-Lourdes rehab on the republican assholes whom had nearly ruined us. What do you think he’ll even TRY to do, if he’s re-elected? For example, I think the minimum wage should
be at least $10 an hour. Does your mouseketeer ouija board suggest that he might push for that?
Even if he manages to eke out a win, I’m pretty sure the democrats won’t retake the House, and that means that John Boehner will be the de facto head of the republican party. Feel free to discuss Obama’s track record in dealing with Boehner.
BTW, thanks for the hanging curve ball. I’ll take all of those you’d like toss out. :o)
Woops! Almost forgot: Offhand, as head Obama shill, I’d say that you need to list the DIFFERENCES between Obama and Bush/Romney. I’m looking forward to discussing that with you. :o)
Twain, I think there are a lot of undecideds.
Tweedle-dum and tweedle-dee will get you that…as in Obama:
“What Romney said about Social Security…”
Please don’t give orange man that title. Rove, aka Turd Blossom is the de facto leader.
I might have arrived here sooner, but I currently suffer from audacity fatigue brought on by the last four years, and am still trying to catch my breath.
According to the PPP poll ( http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-51-46-in-ohio.html ), 19% of Ohio residents polled say that they have already voted, and they went 76-24 for Obama. If this is anywhere near accurate, Obama has already won the state, because even if Romney gets all of the remaining 81% to the polls and wins them by ten points, he still loses.
And yes, Twain, if the Republicans hold the House we’ll see two more years of stalemate. And it’s possible that Obama will win the electoral college and lose the popular vote, because Romney has a huge lead in the South and is behind everywhere else, and winning Alabama by 40 points doesn’t give Romney any more electoral votes than winning it by one.
So basically, like Jon Stewart said, “They’re running for president of Ohio.”
Looks like the ballots have third, fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh party candidates, plus write in space.
Stewart Alexander – Socialist
Richard Duncan – Nonparty candidates
Virgil Goode – Constitution
Gary Johnson – Libertarian
Barack Obama – Democratic
Mitt Romney – Republican
Jill Stein – Green
No, Paisan’, House Speaker boehner has the cattle prod…it’s the one that Obama sold to him for pennies on the dollar.
The only republicans who will be genuinely pissed if Obama wins re-election are the flat-earthers. The Wall Street branch (repubs AND dems…) will be perfectly content.
With Romney v. Obama, they’ve got locks on the board, and they know it.
Actually, even though Obama basically gives Wall Street most of what they want, they are still upset at him (and have switched their money to Romney) because he criticizes them sometimes and it hurts their fee-fees.
It will be pure irony if Obama needs Wisconsin union members to come out and help him win the state. He reneged on his promise to put on walking shoes and help them if they needed him, maybe they wont put on their walking shoes to go vote. Who knows- going to be a helluva horserace. I live in Columbus Ohio and if sighting Obama signs and tshirts is an indicator of enthusiasm for him in the hood I wld be real concerned if I worked for Obama. Drove through the neighborhoods and saw only two Obama signs and one was at his headquarters here. Most of these people wld support Obama over Romney but the question is will they actually go out and vote for him. I predict he loses Ohio in a close race and loses the WH rather soundly.
I’m looking at my California ballot.
It reads as yours except, it doesn’t have
Stewart Alexander, or Richard Duncan or Virgil Goode.
It does have Thomas Hoefling for president, Robert Ornelas, for Vice Pres., as American Independent party.
And, Roseanne Barr / Cindy Sheehan for Peace and Freedom.
“It will be pure irony…”
There’s a ton of that with this guy. He craps on progressives almost by the week, and now that his presidential fat is in the fire, all we get is the shrieks about how huge is our moral obligation to muster up in the bipartisan platoon, and send money.
Not this time.
My feelings exactly. I have been saying for months that Romney is going to take this election.
tanbark I totally understand how you feel but I keep thinking about 2 years from now and I am convinced it is going to be worse under Romney. I am so worried about my sons and how much Romney is going to set them back.
Ballot access laws in the United States vary widely from state to state.
Those listed in #19 were for Ohio.
Well, honey, that was my way of pointing it out.
I would expect the undecided voters are probably voting last, not early.
Metro, I understand how YOU feel. I’ve been a liberal all my life, marched for civil rights in Durham, N.C., marched with the Berkeley crowd in People’s Park; Stood in the anti-vietnam-war vigil in front of the Chapel Hill, N.C. post office (with Dean Smith, of all people…) and just fought the good fight all along.
But I’m certain that Obama’s chance to make a difference disappeared sometime in his first two years, and since then all he’s been doing is “bipartisan” coasting, while doing unconscionable rehabilitation on the republicans. If he wins re-election, I see no way that will change, and that means that this “centrist” crap will continue and will get worse. With Romney, that will also happen, and it will happen sooner. I think we’re heading for something like 1929 and I want there to be a republican in the White House when that happens. I’m not afraid of Romney’s policies; they will be, substantially, a reprise of Bush’s “let the rich get richer.” and they will fail, even worse than Bush’s failed.
With Obama, we may not get a full-on collapse, but if he wins re-election, by 2016 things will be so shitty that the republicans will, figuratively speaking, be able to dig up Reagan’s carcass, fit it with servo-mechanisms, and win in a landslide.
I also very much want it to be demonstrated to future democratic preznintial candidates that if you run as a reform democrat and then govern as a republican-lite, your ass will be fired at the earliest opportunity. At this point, I think that’s Obama’s greatest value to progressives.
I’m not afraid of a real republican, those, we can deal with, but this fake progressive in the White House has done more harm to a progressive agenda than all of the republicans put together. I’m not going to be part of rewarding him for doing it.
“…Roseanne Barr and Cindy Sheehan…”
By God, there’s a ticket. If I was still living in Santa Cruz, I’d be going door-to-door for those ladies. :o)
Very interesting TBogg, your disappointment.
Have you, as a staunch supporter of democracy, any thoughts which you might wish to share about the arrest and “detaining” of Jill Stein and Cherri Honkala when they sought admission to the debate?
Does that enter your realm of disappointment?
Or have you another response to what I consider to be an obvious lack of actual democracy?
I realize that your primary concern is the re-election of Barack Obama.
However, might you spare a few moments or thoughts regarding what is one of the more “interesting” incidents this election season?
Perhaps, you missed hearing about it?
What do you, as a strong Obama supporter, imagine that Obama might think about the incident?
Assuming that he has heard of it?
Looking forward to your thoughts about this, and any speculations about it, which you might care to share …
Yours, in disappointment.
DW
TBogg, reduced to the pitiful role of resident reactionary. A lot of the original NatLamp lower-lives went that route. Vintage, at best.
My fear is that a whole lot of people were telling pollsters they would vote Obama–despite terrible disappointment with the President–because Mitt had become such an object of scorn in the media. Once he succeeded in lying his way to respectability in the first debate the Obama firewall collapsed.
To Obama’s credit he really did succeed in painting the difference between himself and a clearly worse Romney in the last debate. I’m still voting Stein, myself. My wife is too frightened, and voting Obama.
Hey, at least he got us MittCare. Having to defend himself against the guy who came up with it was galling, admittedly. . .
In our neck of the woods, I’ve seen two Obysmal signs and one for Mitt the Twit…………….. along with a whole host of ‘No to the MN marriage amendment’ signs.
Enthusiasm for our overlords seems low.
I sense a lot of unecessary consternation, anxiety, confusion, and general paranoia from my dear friends and esteemed colleagues here. Our fellow citizens in Ohio, home of the Rock n Roll HOF, are fine people. They know a contemptable little pissant when they see one in Ryan. They’ve been subjected to a seven year presidential campaign by a man even the republicans didn’t want. THey tried seven other nimrods, some of th em world-class assholes, before settling on Romney, perhaps the least worthy presidential nominee in my lifetime. THey are NOT gonna “screw the pooch” on this one. Trust me.
Now, OTOH, another four years of the past four years……don’t look at me. I’m as clueless and my cat. Which Obama will it be??? The one we saw on Tuesday night OR the one that;s been living in the White House foirt the past four years?
and I want there to be a republican in the White House when it happens.
This is exactly what I have been saying to my family as a way to console myself . Thanks for the explanation. I know you are right but it still is disturbing.
Hey, some of us have been out of the office of AFK. Please see my #37.
FWIW, I think late deciders will break mostly for Obama. Reason, “I don’t this guy, but I REALLY don’t like this other guy. Filthy rich bastard married to Marie Antoinette.”
The above statement should not be inferred as to indicate any expectation as to improvement in the current dismal state of the greatest country on earth, excepting maybe Canada, New Zealand, and Australia. Accordingly, God bless America and all her ships at sea.
You know, I might just toss my vote their way. Since I’m in California and we have a lot of important measures on the ballot, I WILL Be Voting.
So……. you’re saying the car is heading off the road, into a ditch anyway at 110 mph and you want a republican at the wheel when that happens????
Hmmmmm
I’m not really sure I can find fault with your plan.
TB? DW? Matt? alan?
no..I don’t want it to go into the ditch at all…….but I agree with TanBark that we are headed for the shithole, however I have never voted for any conservative candidate …not even for city council and I won’t start now.
No.
Not Willard the characterless and his unprinciled tribe.
Take O over any of these anyday.
however if we do go belly up best it be Romney at the Wheel
A great progressive uprising?
Only in your dreams. Read a little history. The oligarchs always give the populace enough crumbs to keep them quiet.This country is still too fat and contented to ever take to the streets in the tens of millions. By the way, the other side has all the guns. To the barricades, my arse.
I’m clear. Nobody wants the car in the ditch. BUT, if that’s where it’s going you want your brother-in-law driving, not you. :-)
“great progressive uprising”???? Hmmmmmmm I agree, not likely.
I was thinking more like 50-60 pissed off guys at the local Hooters in say, 30-40 cities. Of course, those with Hooters.
But the guns, and don’t forget the peppper spray. Ohhh the pepper spray. I forgot all about that.
Does anyhbody have a handbook on “Civil Disobedience” and, perhaps an antodote to pepper spray????
Am I at all concerned with WHO is driving the car (to press on with your metaphor, pedal to the floor …) that has its “steering” locked into the “trajectory” you mention?
Not at all.
And, so far as I am concerned the “ditch” is more in the nature of a “grand” canyon and any who imagine a “soft landing” are seriously in need of some understanding of both physics and the consequences of intentionally destroying a civil society. However, as the “Rule of Law” is quite scoffed at, ncg, it is not at all difficult to consider (what a nice word that is; it means “to put stars together”, as has been done with Obamney and Rhomna, two peas, in a podnership of greed and hubris, both equally evil and uncaring about anything but themselves, as the actual evidence most clearly shows) that, to the ruling elite, there ARE no rules, merely “opportunity”.
It may be supposed that both would-be “drivers” fully expect that platinum parachutes will magically break their personal fall as the vehicle of “state” careens to its “fate”.
As for the next four years, it is fully apparent the intent of the rulers, what remains unclear is whether the people will come to more fully realize their collective and rapidly worsening plight?
It is said that there is nothing like unmitigated disaster to clear the cobwebs and “focus” concentration …
In the free-fall of the space of the next four years, it may be that we shall come to see if that is really the case.
In any event, the window of actual “possibility”, in terms of the planet’s capacity to support human life is fast slamming shut.
So, really it matters little who sits at the wheel, what matters is whether the passengers are paying attention to the nature of terrain ever more rapidly being passed through.
Historically, the “good Germans”, of a certain time past, might, just possibly, recognize some familiar landmarks and possibly even the direction the front wheels are being “steered” in.
Ah, well …
Others will claim that there is “no choice”, that democracy and decency demand that the lesser evil be kept in the driver’s seat … because, they assure us, he will drive just a little bit slower …
The destination is the same, in either case, as some of that “driver’s” minions will mention, in the very same breath that we are admonished to stifle ourselves and “do” what is “right”, what is “practical” and “pragmatic”.
When push comes to “shove” …
Everybody’s “mileage” will “vary” … until we go over the “edge”>
And then?
It is a long ways …
d
o
w
n
.
.
.
Let’s all kick back and enjoy the ride.
It is one that we, apparently, must take.
Perhaps, we will learn something?
Perhaps, not?
“Vote” your conscience.
Even those who do not “vote” … actually do make a choice.
To each, her or his own.
For “own” our choice we certainly shall.
DW
Where are the repugs arguing that we should count only the popular vote and dump teh electoral college? Scalia delivered in 2000, but that legacy backfired this time around: the chickens came home to roost. (Not that Scalia didn’t try in 2012 with Citizens United.)
Despite all Mr O’s faults, amply pointed out here at the lake, gotta tell ya that after the first debate, I was scared to death that Rombot would become POTUS — enough to turn my hair gray and keep me up at night sweating bullets. Phew. Thanks Mr O for picking up your game.
I got an MA from OSU on the way from Massachusetts to permanent home here in California. Go Buckeyes! Rombot is closing down a plant and moving it to China even as we speak. What a prick.
I understand the well-deserved anger of disgruntled liberals over Obama’s inexcusable failures. For myself, I’d like to shove an XL Pipe right up Obama’s ass before shoving it up Romney’s ass, but I have intended to vote for Jill Stein since the very beginning (for which many FDL commentators called me an asshole back at the beginning). However, I do not live in a Romney state, or a swing state, and can vote my conscience.
To say the next 4 yrs would be no different, or better off, with Romney than Obama is utterly fucking stupid. Have you been in a coma? Have you figured out how to prop up the SCOTUS to appear all alive for next 4 yrs? Do you just want to carpet-bomb Iran WWII style? Or just get revenge on Obama 3rd grade schoolyard style? You sound like those “drill-drill-drill” assholes who think the international oil companies will change their whole companies out of love for the United States if we just turn over all our national parks to them.
Do you understand what you are saying ? You intend to vote for Jill Stein who is not going to win. You are making a point by voting for her and your vote indeed will help Romney who you just said will be worse then Obama. I think tanbark made it very clear that he/she knows it will be very bad with Romney but does not feel he should reward a “progressive” candidate when he/she feels got hoodwinked .
Oooh, oooh! I know this one! I’m *NOT* answering for TBogg, just my own answer:
Obama: “Where the heck are the drone bombers when you need one?”
Even if you lived in a Romney state, you could vote for Jill Stein, and it would not alter the outcome. It would not be a “spoiler vote”. The state would still go to Romney.
If you live in an Obama state, the same condition applies. No spoiler possible there, thanks to mathematics.
I am in a Romney state, and I do plan to vote for Stein.
I think the voting machines are old news. The new political reality is the Obama administration’s green lighting of the privatized surveillance state. There are plenty of liberals who are too stupid to figure out that all their communications are intercepted and very likely handed over to the oppo research supercomputers of the GOP. I’m sure we’ll be seeing a lot more Elliot Spitzer/Anthony Weiner extravaganzas in the future and most of the conventional democrats will take their lumps in public with befuddled, shit-eating grins. Wha’ happen’d? How that happen?
Well, I’m responding to an argument that favors voting against Obama, and for Romney for reasons I don’t buy. I,too, am voting against Obama, for the same reasons, but also against Romney in the bargain. Like I said, I do not live in a Romney state, nor swing state. Obama is expected to easily take the state.
I am voting for Stein as a matter of conscience, evidenced because it was from the beginning. However, as it turns out, I can do so strategically as well. The Green Party effort now is to beef up support for Stein enough to qualify for full engagement in 2016. It’s a long shot, given the anti-3rd party structure in the U.S., but do-able on paper at this point.
I do not have a beef with anyone who is pissed off at Obama. I am too. But to deny him a vote just because you don’t want to “reward” him, strikes me as the old cut-your-nose-off-to-spite-your face dynamic, as well as an immature revenge-seeking dynamic. I think that should be re-examined.
I live in a swing state, Iowa, and will vote for Jill Stein enthusiastically.
After watching her get arrested the other evening, I decided that I would vote for Stein here in Florida. I have held my nose and voted Dem in eight Presidential elections now as Dem candidates sold out labor, welfare, the elderly, and the young, bombing brown people in poor countries with all the bloodthirsty alacrity of the Republicans; enough is enough. When I cast my ballot I may just shout something like F*ck Rahm Emanuel, too :).
Dude, bad comic pundit on blog with 12 readers is. . . just. . . not. . . that. . . far. . . from random, either.
I haven’t seen any Presidents that deserved more than one term in office. Maybe this will start a trend.
Interesting and similar to what I’ve been thinking; the electoral math for Governor Romney isn’t looking good, even in the face of the recent Gallop poll (more of an outlier in my opinion). I think Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are going to fall in line with the Democrats – have a look at my map here (http://goo.gl/W8982)
Of course, this could all change as the race tightens in the final weeks.