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The presidential race has become more competitive in the swing states as a result of the first debate, but the movement in Mitt Romney direction has been modest. According to the latest NBC News/WSJ/Marist polls, the race has only moved a few points in Romney’s direction in Virginia and Ohio, while there has been no change in Florida.
Swing states (photo: Naturalturn / flickr)
Florida
Marist (10/7-9)
Barack Obama 48%
Mitt Romney 47%
Other 1%
Undecided 4%
Ohio
Marist (10/7-9)
Barack Obama 51%
Mitt Romney 45%
Other 1%
Undecided 4%
Virginia
Marist (10/7-9)
Barack Obama 47%
Mitt Romney 48%
Other 1%
Undecided 4%
Since Marist’s polling last week, Obama has gone from an eight point lead in Ohio to a six point lead. In Virginia, Obama went from up by two to down by one.
While slipping in the polls is always bad news for a campaign, the silver lining for the Obama team is that the change is minor compared to what some of the national polling indicated. These polls were conducted starting Sunday so it seems to confirm that the Romney debate bounce was mostly limited to the few days directly following it and has already begun to fade.
16 Comments
Rmoney is currently blanketing Ohio with direct mailings. I’m getting a card a day, every day, hyping some aspect of Rmoney. I’m getting 2-3 a week from Obama, though none yet this week.
Cards are well done propaganda, IMO. Tell you what you want to hear and nothing else.
And I think there were some walkers for Rmoney recently. There are about a dozen new Rmoney signs in my neighborhood. I don’t think it indicates any new support, those yards already had Mandel signs.
Boxturtle (Being in a swing state and having your vote “matter” is not all it’s made out to be)
I think that the plan from day one is to make it seem that Rmoney is close to beating Obama and then in the final days, Rmoney steals the election. Exit polling will be the same as in 2004 (i.e. the Democrat was winning on the exit polling but losing in the actual election). If Obama does not learn to be tougher on the Rethuglicans, He will be a one termer.
Better than being in Texas where the repubublicants hold ALL the state offices and where if I voted 167,000 times romney would still win the state.
Ohio won’t go for Romney, NO WAY…….right???
I wouldn’t be surprised if romney pulls out VA. But there is no electoral hyperbolic algorithm, however mutated, that gets romney to 270.
A conservative, a moderate and a liberal go to a bar. The bartender says:
I agree. I’ve said, all along if Obama can’t win this by a margin above 1.5% he’s toast because down below that % lies the crocodiles of the GOPT voter suppression appart /laws and Govs. and the machine rigging that they can hide in the noise down there. The GOPT has a 1.25% to 1.50% handicap now.
Wrong. Rmoney can win Ohio. Obama’s support is REALLY soft, he’s seen as every bit the clown that Rmoney is. The port debate bounce shows this. Even with a debate that everybody knows was heavily scripted, it was enough to move the polls into the margin of error.
Boxturtle (In a contest of clowns, go for the funniest one)
Hi Mitt! Whatcha drinking?
Boxturtle (Is this a contest? What do i win?)
Yeah, up here in Iowa, I get those big slick folders from mitt in the mail everyday. Can’t recall getting much of anything from Obama.
My neighborhood is basically working class–saw my first obama yardsign today, no mitt signs, but lots of vilsack signs, a few king signs (christie vilsack v. steve king–IA-4), and 2 Stein signs–one in my front yard and the other out back facing the alley, lol.
If Mitt wins Florida, Iowa, and Ohio, he’s over 270 I think.
BoxTurtle @8
You win!
newcarguy is a Willard troll
(In a contest of clowns, go for the funniest one)
Even in serious matters, you make me laugh! Thnx.
Willard brought his crib sheet to his debate.
What will Petey bring to his? A wire? Anyone?
Right. While I thought Obama showed his true corporatist colors in the first “debate,” he didn’t actually lie all that much. Romney did. You can’t turn on a local station here without seeing an attack ad calling Romney a bald-faced liar. My favorite says, “If you can’t trust him here,” picture of the debate stage, “how can you trust him here?”, picture of the Oval Office.
What will save Obama in Ohio, besides most Ohioans’ profound discomfort with the perfectly quaffed, plastic Mormon, is the auto industry bailout. That’s at least 300,000 votes.
All that said, I will vote for neither Fascist.
It’s difficult to predict – looks like it’s gonna for sure be a tight race. Oh by the way if any of you are game players out there, I wanted to share a fun elections game:
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1541546554/election-slots-facebook-game-the-new-spin-on-polit