Before the debate Ohio appeared to be President Obama’s firewall, the must-win swing state for Romney where Obama held a big lead. Directly following the debate the polling has become very tight. The latest CNN poll has Obama up by four in Ohio, while SurveyUSA gives Obama only a single point lead.
CNN/ORC International (10/5-8)
Barack Obama 51%
Mitt Romney 47%
Neither 1%
No opinion 1%
SurveyUSA (10/5-8)
Barack Obama 45%
Mitt Romney 44%
Other 3%
Undecided 8%
For a while it looked like Ohio, and by extension the White House, was about to become impossible for Romney. While Romney is still trailing, he is at least within striking distance now.
The only real positive news for the Obama campaign is that both polls were started the Friday directly following the debate. There are signs that Romney’s bounce from the debate was strongest in the days right after, but had already started to ebb by the beginning of this week. It is possible that polling from later this week will find Obama with a slightly larger lead.




37 Comments
It’s not who vote that counts , it’s who counts the votes !
Republicans own the voting machines , go figure who’s going to ” ” WIN ” “!
In retrospect, Obama’s failure to call Romney on his Etch a Sketch policies–promised openly by his advisers–looks like a collosal failure. Obama will have to spend a good part of the next debate undoing that damage. Unfortunately, not as many people are likely to watch that debate.
I don’t think we can take it for granted that Biden bests Ryan, either. But it should make for good political kabuki.
In the CNN/ORC poll I thnk it’s clear exactly which group opf voters are the most informed and casting their vote properly……. that would be the 1% who said “neither”.
Like Willard, will Petey be wired/bring his own notes to the debate.
Over the weekend a LOT more Rmoney signs sprouted in my neighborhood. Not one new Obama. Some folks were REALLY unimpressed with Obama’s debate.
Perhaps Obama won’t phone the next one in, these new numbers have got to be scaring somebody in his re-election team.
Boxturtle (Unless they haven’t phoned in and so aren’t aware of the problem)
Biden and Ryan on the same stage? That should be entertaining.
Next presidentiual debate is a “town hall forum” if I recall. Completely different. Obama better bring his “A” game. OTOH, Romney, still being, well, uh, Romney, still hasn’t moved the electoral map one iota. His 191 just isn’t even within striking distance. He’ll have to win OH, VA and FL and I don’t see that happening.
I saw my first Obama and my first Romney/Ryan bumper stickers for the entire year this week. The enthusiasm on both sides is just underwhelming.
Agreed. I think Obama’s problem is exactly what he said in the debate: He agrees a lot with Mitt. Kinda tough to slam someone for having the same plans as you do.
My money is on Ryan in the VP debate. He’s a much better talker than Joe.
Boxturtle (I can’t wait for the SNL parody of that debate)
I keep telling anybody who’ll listen that Ohio is a LOT closer than they think. Support for both is VERY soft and one bad debate was enough to move the state to Mitt. If Mitt debates badly next time, it’ll move back to Obama.
Boxturtle (I think the price of gas will determine Ohio. Less than $3.60 means Obama wins)
This is the dream of the press and the Republicans.
Keep it close so that when the election is stolen, the people may be heartbroken that Obama did not win, but they will not go out in the streets to protest a “close’ and stolen election.
I see more Obama 08 bumper stickers than I do 2012. I see more McCain stickers than I do Rmoney.
Boxturtle (both should be glad that NoneOfTheAbove isn’t an option)
There oughta be a law. Wasn’t that a comic?
After the debate all notes remain property of the debate sponsors since note paper is provided for them and no outside notes are allowed.
i.e. no scrambling/hiding notes ala Willard after the debate. Also cuts down on cheating, ask any teacher.
I’m still not seeing *any* POTUS signs for either RMoney or DMoney in the two neighborhoods where I spend time.
Over this weekend, more local signs are up, but nothing for POTUS so far.
I live part-time in northern San Diego, which is military and very “red,” and will hold their noses and vote for Mitt (after all, my rep in Congress is the horrid rip-off artist Daryll Issa). In NorCal, my area is more mixed, but in 2008 there were a lot of signs for both Obama & McCain. This year so far: nada.
I didn’t watch the debate, but there certainly was a lot of titter-tatter about it this weekend at the gatherings I attended. In general, my mostly trad-Dem pals were pounding their heads bc of Obama’s poor performance, and now they are a-skeeered that RMoney will win, which signifies a much worse admin than the present one… or so they assure me.
And so: on it goes…
We’ll call it the “boxturtle metric.”
Right now, the cheapest gas in Columbus is $3.64. Even the BoxTurtle metric is too close to call!
Boxturtle (Never saw much point in “scientific polling” anyway)
This sudden turnabout in the polls is 100% consistent with the Right’s conspiracy theory that the polls are being rigged in some way.
Here’s the scenario:
1) The polls were adjusted to create a convenient–and unwarranted–bump for Obama.
2) The Repubs and others called foul and suggested the polls were being goosed; the Dems’ response was notably defensive.
3) Because of the public outcry, the poll-riggers had to stop rigging the polls, at least temporarily.
4) The polls immediately began to reflect EXACTLY what the Republicans had been saying all along–i.e., Mitt is ahead.
http://youtu.be/n_Xp4m5P03g
I go back to an earlier post. Ohio will decide not who we would rather have a beer with but who we would rather get fired by. Otherwise this is two sides of the same coin, again.
Heh,
When I first read your post I took “polls” to mean voting place, not opinion polls.
It didn’t make much sense that the Right had a conspiracy theory that the polls are being rigged in some way (see comment #1).
President’s Policies are Working — U.S. Debt has Shrunk to a six-year low! http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/10/1142543/-Bloomberg-U-S-debt-has-shrunk-to-a-six-year-low via @dailykos — Despite GOP Obstruction!
That said, President Obama is a truthful, honest, brilliant man who is concerned about all of Americans, not just the 47 percent or the rich and well connected. He is working hard to right the wrongs that have caused the U.S. to be a nation that benefits the wealthy while the average Joe & Jane are being squeezed and the doors of opportunity closing. Pres. Obama is w orking for fairness and equal opportunity for all. He is not lying or making up stuff to get elected. Remember the Mitt you heard when he thought no one was looking, the one on the Secret Videotape is the real Mitt Romney, and it ain’t pretty.
Hey, I finally moved on up to the 1 percenters!
And his real name is Willard
I think deep down the Buckeye state knows Willard is an asshole. Don’t get me wrong, they’re not big fans of Obama, but they know better than to vote republican and Romney.
I don’t recall EVER seeing such an absence of bumber stickers in my entire lifetime. I think that is very representative of how the country feels. I also think that’s a GOOD thing. Sorta.
“Boxturtle metric”……… I LIKE it!!!!
We’ve got some, not a lot, but some $3.49 gas here in Texas. Of course, we make it here. So we got a leg up.
Here’s what they call a clue down at the FBI……..no democrat ever wins a squeaker on electronic voting machines or the , Ha Ha Ha , electronic recount.
LOL
If there is anything seedy in Ryan’s past, hope Biden hits him hard with it. After seeing Romney, chances are, Ryan will do this to Biden. (Didn’t Ryan get raised on or go to college on SS or some form of ‘communism’, while wanting to cut out help to Americans now?) Biden needs to know all the facts then call Ryan out on any lies IMMEDIATELY during the debate. Hope Biden brings his smile as well as his junk yard dog choppers.
The stock market under Obama is better than it has ever been–better than anytime under W. Bush. Why is this information not out there all the time?
Can anyone draw a picture of a snake with two tongues?
Romney is now talking out of the other side of his mouth–again–saying he will do no abortion legislation. Man, the pres doesn’t do legislation, anyway. However, all he has to do is sign–while letting the GOPhers and other scary men do the legislating against womens’ bodies. This entire inflated abortion issue which comes up every general election is as stupid as saying if a woman dies in forced child birth, give the biological father capitol punishment. (Maybe not so stupid.) Most parents with daughters openly or secretly want the right for women to protect themselves and make their own choice. Can’t tell you how many GOPher parents have daughters who have had ‘procedures.’ GOPhers need to create a men’s birth control pill (since they are so hellbent on controlling what happens to women) then, and only by agreement with a woman, can the man quit the pill if it is possible the woman could become pregnant. Time for justice in procreation and the lopsided war against women. Could a Morman handle this? Could Mitt Romney’s alleged polygamist ancestors handle this? The way the bully GOPhers are going, this may as well be one of those ‘cover-the-womens’-faces’ nations. Ugly, judgmental men–Romney’s party–use bully power against women. Then, they don’t want to help babies, children and women to be healthy. For this reason, Romney does not deserve to be president. No GOPher does.
If a woman is forced against her will to have a baby by law, by law the governing body making that law should cover all costs of birth, to bring the mother back to full health and employment status and to raise the child for 18 or 22 years.
With the revelations of the voting debacle in Palm Beach Cty. for the last couple of election cycles the election headlines can be written today. OBAMA WINS 53-47% IN FLORIDA! ROMNEY DECLARED WINNER, IN LANDSLIDE, BY GOV. SCOTT & CO.! In what part of the ” banana republic ” is your vote being cast this year? I hope it’s in Venezuela. Ohio is no less corrupt than the Sunshine State. Kasich is a giant a-hole in the same mold as Scott. The fix may indeed be in, after all.
Asshole, yes but (a contrarian view): In my opinion Obama’s apparent disdain for Romney was far more evident than the reverse, and Romney’s patient willingness and respectful addresses to the President paid off handsomely in the debate.
My pet theory is that Obama’s support was waiting to crater, People (including many Black people, a Times piece yesterday suggested) are just flat depressed and disappointed he hasn’t helped them.
As long as Romney was a national laughing stock–as painted by the media–announcing support for him was hard for people to do. I think he removed that stigma, and went some way to (re)establishing himself as viable candidate. Long way to go in the Electoral College Sweepstakes, however, that is true.
Right now in Ohio the Jewish Coalition is running many commercials basically saying Obama was so rude to Mr. Net. and Obama is in essence rude to Israel–saying basically these are reasons Obama is a bad president. Well, after seeing the ads by the Jewish Coalition people–by what I would call controllers of America by the nation of Israel–it makes me actally want to vote for Obama more. Whatever Israel appears to be manipulating for–I want the opposite. And, thank you Mr. Obama for not taking any more crap from Israel. It is right to be rude to those connected to another nation who appear to want to twist our arm. Israel is not America. They are bullies in the sand. I saw a man interviewed on TV shortly after 9/11 who said something like, now Americans know what Israel has been experiencing all these years. I wanted to puke. I thought then, wow, how convenient.
Romney has reportedly pulled all of his operatives out of PA and reassigned them to Ohio, which might explain the signs. All he has to do is get witihin a margin of one percent, and the voting machines plus vote suppression will do the rest.
Angellight, here is a perspective that you may well not be prepared to hear.
However, what Margaret kimberley, of “Black Agenda Report”, has to say resonates with far more people than you might imagine. It suggests a very different “take”, on Barack Obama, from yours.
http://blackagendareport.com/content/freedom-rider-why-romney-beat-obama
DW
Yeh well what didn’t help was when Obama turned to Romney in the debate and said that he agreed with Romney on Social Security. I think this statement has caused more problems for Obama then what is being reported.
Yes and there are many Jewish people who agree with you also,
The “debt” is rich people’s concern, a totally artificial way to discipline us to follow their chosen path. It never takes in women’s labor, subsistence labor, anything that doesn’t contribute to commerce and profit; it isn’t balanced against a nation’s ASSETS the way household debt is, even though they constantly want to tell you the US should BE like one (it shouldn’t; it has longer timelines, rivers, and mines, and soil, and the shared abilities and futures of millions of people). The president has done nothing for Black people or poor people, he has performed for Wall Street and the rich. Long live the Black Agenda Report, which tells it like it is–not what sellouts in the Black Middle Class (who long ago stopped acting in solidarity with the Black poor) want you to hear.
Ohio is a cesspool of corruption. When the sec of state Husted petitions the Supreme Court less than one month before the election, to disenfranchise voters, which EVERYONE understands is what he is doing, if he will do that, do you think he’ll hesitate to hack voting totals ?
O’Bama needs to get 5-6 percent more votes in Ohio than Mittens to win. Anything less will not compensate for the massive suppression effort the criminals have ready to go.
The scope of the Ohio Crime of 2004 is not known by most people, it was a massive conspiracy. The key rethug operative who had complete control of the Ohio Sec. of State’s web site, from a site in Chattanooga, Tenn., was called to testify in a post-election lawsuit. His private plane crashed two weeks before he was to testify. His previous deposition was on record and he was getting ready to sing.
All anybody has to know about US Pres elections, is who is the Gov of Ohio and who is the Gov of Florida. If they are both rethugs, the dems will loose the election, no matter what the vote is.
Welcome to the shithole that is America.
WOW. Why is this not picked up by someone and exposed. My God!! What a Country.