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Mitt Romney’s strong performance in the debate has allowed him to grab the lead nationally, according to the latest Pew Research poll. Last month Obama lead by eight points among likely voters but now Romney is up by four. From Pew:
The cause of this huge swing was Obama’s terrible performance in the debate. Overwhelmingly the American people agree Romney won the debate. According to Gallup, never in modern presidential politics have Americans been so unanimous in agreeing which candidate won a debate.
As a result of the debate, Romney’s numbers have increased across a variety of questions. Romney’s favorable rating is the highest it has every been at 50 percent. Before the debate Obama has a 13 point advantage on who Americans thought is a stronger leader, and now they are tied.
Most problematic for Obama is that Romney has seen real improvement on the issue of the economy, which is the number one issue for voters. Before the debate, Obama had a one point advantage on who was seen as best able to improve the jobs situation, but now Romney leads by eight on jobs.
It is possible that Romney’s post-debate bump will fade rather quickly, but Obama’s debate performance is already guaranteed to be remembered as the worst ever.
39 Comments
I don’t think Obama really wants the job anymore. You make a ton more dough as an ex president than as a president, and the expectations are much less.
Obama needs to move more to the right.
Truthiness!
Obama threw the debate because he doesn’t want to preside ove the next four years of the decline of America. (he’s ability to become as rich as Gore and Clinton will be hurt badly)
OR
Obama was told to throw it. The elite want Romney and as we know Obama answers to the elite.
I agree. Obama’s “I couldn’t care less” debate performance started me wondering whether Obama is running to lose. If he takes a fall and Romney wins Wall Street will get exactly what it wants, again. It will also keep Democrats , Liberals and Progressives split since party line Dems will blame the more progressive voters for the loss. It will be a great finish for Obama who I have always thought had only one real job -destroy the progressive generational shift the was occurring in politics.
I always go to 538 to get another analysis. Nate is not finding a lot of significance in this moment.
Romney did not win the debate. A debate is first and foremost based on FACTS and Romney’s facts were lacking. He appeared to be a bully, not assertive but aggressive. Just the type we need to be in charge of that big red nuke button. Obama, as most progressives realize, has no balls whatsoever and he was surprised by the aggressiveness of Romney. Obama was totally unprepared. At least he had more correct facts than Romney. All that being said, I will not vote for either of these corporate puppets. It’s either Jill Stein or Rocky Anderson for me.
Also, the media needs a horse race so more money will be poured into ads. I think any “uptick” in Romney’s numbers can be directly attributed to that need.
It’s a thrilla!
At least most Dems think Obama won.
Politics is based on facts, not image?
I wish.
even stephanie miller knows he lost.
The question is more, did he throw it?
See Ready at #4
Perhaps Obama knows something about the election…like it isn’t gonna happen because martial law or some semblance of it will be declared and the elections suspended. So why should he answer anything?
Or maybe he loves being a come from behind winnah!
Dammit. It’s the Shannon O’Brien rolls her eyes during the debate effect.
Thanks Barry!
Mitt won the perception war. Given the shallowness and ignorance of large swaths of the electorate that’s all he needs.
There is something to be said about Obama not wanting another term. Still to get spanked that badly on national tv doesn’t sound just right. He was ambushed and could not react quickly enough. It is surprising since everyone knew Romney was going to move hard to his left and he is a known over talker and bully. Makes me think next one will be repeat since Obama has neither the balls nor program to fix things other than his four trillion dollar deficit reduction plnn. And that does not play well with most of the public.
It’s conclusive: Americans love having authoritarian assholes telling them what to do.
Debates are wrestling matches, in suits. I’s a show.
I don’t think Obama threw the debate. I think it could be chalked up to a lot of things. However, I don’t think presidents should have more than one term. Carter suggested they all get one six-year term. Maybe he’s burned out. Not the easiest job.
Obama’s performance was an unmitigated disaster. It was demoralizing to have a candidate who won’t fight for me in the face of these Republicans, who want to steal my Medicare and Social Security. Worse, Obama tipped his hand that he’ll cut Social Security when he gave Romney his endorsement of it.
Who cares if Romney lied? The debate is not a measure of who commands more facts (and even on this point Obama was listless and dilatory): it really is a test of strength. If someone lies to your face, like Romney did, you have to put him down. Obama didn’t and it was all the more humiliating to hear his comebacks on the campaign trail the next day. All he had to say was, “You’ve been running for President for, what, six years now, you’ve put a lot of your money into this, and you’ll say anything to get elected, anything. Your word means nothing.”
Allowing Romney to present himself as some born-again moderate was gross incompetence. In presenting himself as a Massachusetts moderate Romney was like a general marching across his enemy’s front, exposing his flank. One attack would have routed him. Shit, they could have mentioned the Etch-a-Sketch quote. Now Romney’s made it to safety.
One punch was all Obama needed! Instead, he went to the clinch right away. I wouldn’t honor his performance by calling it rope-a-dope; it was straight up “dope”. The campaign excuse that 47% didn’t come up was pathetically transparent. You make it come up in a debate! You also mention Detroit, many times.
When Romney mentioned “your money is where your heart is” you come back with: Cayman Islands, Switzerland, Chinese sweat shops and say that while Romney has gotten rich betting against America Obama has doubled down on Detroit and American industry.
When Romney mocked Obama for picking losers you come back with: “With all due respect, I did pick one winner: the American auto industry. You told it to go bankrupt. But bankruptcy never bothered you — you got rich on the companies you took over whether you bankrupted them or not. You’ve been betting against America all your life…”
The task was to finish Romney as a candidate, to hold him up as a lying laughingstock. Fail. All the more shocking after what has been a flawless, aggressive campaign. I guess Obama doesn’t really care.
Obama is pacing himself. He may have lost the first “set” but he’ll bring out that booming “serve” and take the next two sets for sure. IN a “three set match”, foirst set is just warmup anyway.
Not a good sign when you’re complaining the other side is bullying you. That’s the kind of thing the Romney campaign was mewling about a couple weeks ago.
And Big Bird ads are supposed to make him look like less of a sad sack?
“Pacing himself.”
LOL.
In addition to debating, O also has another job as prez and all that entails.
What is Willard’s other job besides lying for prez for the last decade?
Twelve point turnaround equals catastrophic. Hardly over for Obama, though, especially since we have this wonderful thing called an electoral college system!
I have to agree. I’m not expecting better from Obama (I expect Biden to positively humiliate Ryan, on the other hand). This is genuinely suprising to me, because I actually thought he was underrated as a debater. He demolished McCain with barely an effort. But maybe that was more McCain dashing himself to pieces on the implacable Obama.
In the foreign policy debate Obama can’t play this passive role again. He can’t rest on his CinC laurels and look “presidential”. The mystique has evaporated. He really needs to attack Romney and have some kind of brutal retort, like “I’ve had to command, while you’ve been on the campaign trail for six years cheerleading for more wars and being brave with other people’s blood. You’re a chickenhawk.” He needs to have something very harsh ready when Romney attacks him on Libya, something that mentions Romney’s opposition or ambivalence to the intervention as well as a stern rebuke for his 9-11 Libya comments. Something about him standing on a pile of bodies to score cheap political points.
And when Israel-Iran comes up he really has to frame this as another case of Iraq, that Romney is going to rush us into a war like Bush did. That is the only way to avoid making excuses for not kissing up to Israel like Romney is demanding he do. Responding to the Israel jibes directly will not be a winner for various reasons: kissing Israel’s ass more than already does will only make him look weaker than he already does, while substantively talking about Israel as a different country with different interests obviously cannot be a winner with our press. Avoid the question about Israel as much as possible and make it a question of us being unable to trust Romney and his neocon retreads, to make it clear Romney will stumble into a war, that Romney weakens us because no one trusts his word.
On Afghanistan: he inherited a mess. He’s trying to wind it down responsibly, like he did in Iraq.
Most importantly, he really has to crow about killing bin Laden and bring up Romney’s quote about “heaven and earth.” Say it’s luck Romney has never been in charge of anything more important than a six-year presidential campaign and that his decisions don’t have any consequences in the real world. He needs to expressly say Too bad he hasn’t already established this theme by bring up Romney’s desire to see Detroit go bankrupt.
Being a politician is part of his job. Think of a debate as a major paper or presentation in the workaday world. You don’t just blow it off.
Obama has a pathological obsession with the deficit. He seems to feel that “if we “take care” of the deficit, all will be well.”, which of course is BS.
Cutting the deficit doesn’t play as well as creating good jobs. Obama doesn’t seem to get that.
Exactly. You don’t blow off something this important.
I’m tired of people making excuses for Obama. His debate performance was listless and lifeless. He can’t blame that on an obstructionist Congress or the meanie Republicans. This was his fault. Period.
For me, it’s worse. Obama just doesn’t care much.
Romney and Ryan are my enemy. I’m in the age cohort they’ll steal the most Medicare and Social Security from. I’m in the 53%, but they still despise me for being a middle class job taker, not a job creator. I hate these people and it’s Obama’s job to hate them, too. He doesn’t. He’s not on my side.
To reiterate, the Social Security thing, giving his stamp of approval to Romney, was an outright stab in the back. You simply say, “Republicans can’t be trusted with Social Security. They tried to privatize it under their president, George Bush. Who was the point man in Congress? My opponent’s running mate. Mitt Romney’s words may not mean much, but his actions do: he chose someone set on voucherizing Medicare and privatizing Social Security.”
Obama didn’t defend Social Security because he didn’t wish to.
It is dangerous for a national candidate to say things that people might remember.
Eugene McCarthy
Ever been to Denver?
Altitude is a bitch. :-)
Then it becomes Obama’s job in the debate to point that out, correct Romney’s facts and retake the gavel. FWIW, I didn’t see Romney as bullying, just an aggressive style, and barely even that. Each candidate had an allotted amount of time to make their points, uninterrupted, and overall, Obama spoke several more minutes than Romney.
Talk of Democratic politicians having no spines are greatly exaggerated, just like Obama’s timidity is myth: He’s plenty tough when it comes to standing up to the Democratic base.
Democratic voters have mistakenly believed that Obama and Democrats want what they want. The DLC-controlled DemocraticParty gives lip service to all populist issues (like jobs, civil rights protections, restoring habeas corpus, ending the wars, public healthcare, WallStreet reform, environmental and energy issues, etc.).
If the Bush years taught us anything, it’s that anyone can sell anything to Americans, if you’re stolid and relentless in your sales pitch and tactics. It’s not that Bush and Rove were geniuses and knew something that nobody else knew; Bush and Rove were just more ruthless in doing what politicians and the parties had gone to great lengths to hide from Americans — If you keep at it, escalate your attacks, don’t take ‘no’ for an answer, never back away, you’ll wear the opposition down.
Obama didn’t get to be the first black president, vanquish Clinton’s machine (to get the nomination) and the oldest, most experienced politicians in US history (including the RoveMachine) by not having mastered these skills. Nor do Democratic politicians (more incumbents than ever, in office longer) not know how to do it. How do you think Democrats managed to keep impeaching BushCheney off the table, have us still reelecting them, not marching on Washington with torches and pitchforks?
Obama and Democrats know how to do it — They don’t want to do it.
The trick for them has been to keep the many different populist groups believing that they really do support our issues, but they’re merely inept. And to get us to keep voting for them despite their failure to achieve our alleged shared objectives.
Getting Democratic voters (and Obama’s ‘most ardent supporters’) to understand that Democratic politicians have been taking us all for suckers and patsies is the most immediate problem and the challenge.
Well, there we go, again. Looking inside this national poll holds the key. It was weighted differently, by region, party affiliation, etc than usual. Which is fair game to pollsters and within the murky rules of the game. Obama is and always been a cautious counter puncher. That cost him dearly in Denver. For the vast majority of voters, excluding minorities, the recession is largely over and people are moving on; albeit with a much more cynical attitude toward the role of, and, idea of a positive, evenhanded government. This is the fallout from the corruptness and ineptitude of the Democratic Party and Obama after the 2008 election. The lack of prosecutions in the banking and investment industries, no prosecutions of war criminals, the mainstream and right wing’s ” fair and balanced ” propaganda operation, etc. We shall see if the 19 state strategy works for the Dems and Obama. I’m still wagering it does.
Compounded by all that ‘mile high club’ anniversary sex aboard Air Force One.
Jon! Pew’s internals on this poll mark it as dubious:
Most polls show a modest Romney “bump”, but this is an outlier.
Obama has done more damage to his own cause by his remark on SS, and his refusal to disavow any cuts, than anything Romney has said or done.
stewartm
Romney is such a lousy candidate I believe that the elite (that includes Democrats) were worried that the Republican base would not turnout and the Dems would pick up down-ticket seats in the senate & house which might eliminate any excuse for Dems not to implement a progressive agenda.
I still can’t understand why the Republican base, a southern white Evangelical, would vote for a New England Yankee, who spent his Vietnam draft-age-years in Paris, France, who was pro-choice and who believes Jesus was a failure. Romney has nothing in common with these people – his homes are in New England & California, his running mate is a yankee, their religions have no similarities. They are both white!
Yeah but he is a narcissist, and being the most well-known water boy for Wall Street criminals does provide a nice ego boost that simply getting paid to give speeches to Wall Street criminals won’t provide.
Maybe they look at themselves and those around them and realize someone unlike them might be better qualified to be president. As far as race based voting goes, half of white voters voted for Obama, while nearly all black voters did.
Romney’s surge is lasting only for a time,and the surges is not that big
that can put in jeopardy Obama’s reelection, i reckon so, now media and supporters are whining about his ” bad performance” “because he does not want
to be president anymore”..what a silly foolishness! Obama’s mouth is watering for a 2nd term that he doesn’t deserve in any possible way and even better because he is gonna be a lame duck with carte blanche.