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Early impressions from last night’s debate indicate Mitt Romney won it. Most pundits agree that Romney had the strong performance and the instant polling and focus groups all seem to share the opinion. From CNN:
According to a CNN/ORC International survey conducted right after the debate, 67% of debate watchers questioned said that the Republican nominee won the faceoff, with one in four saying that President Barack Obama was victorious.
“No presidential candidate has topped 60% in that question since it was first asked in 1984,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
While nearly half of debate watchers said the showdown didn’t make them more likely to vote for either candidate, 35% said the debate made them more likely to vote for Romney while only 18% said the faceoff made them more likely to vote to re-elect the president.
The CBS News instant poll of uncommitted voters found similar results. From CBS News:
By a 2 to 1 margin, uncommitted voters crowned Mitt Romney the winner over President Obama in the first presidential debate in Debate, Colo., on Wednesday night, according to a 500-person instant poll taken by CBS News.
In the moments following the candidates’ performances on the University of Denver stage, 46 percent of voters gave the economy-centric debate to Romney, 22 percent said they believed the president was the winner, and 32 percent called it a tie. More good news for the GOP nominee: 56 percent of those polled said they viewed Romney in a better light after watching the debate. Eleven percent said their opinion of him dropped, and 32 percent cited no change in opinion.
In general Romney seemed more energetic and better prepared that Obama. Obama seems to be caught flat-footed and slow to respond. In addition, Obama failed to bring up half a dozen issues which have been the successful selling points in his campaign, including Bain, social issues, Romney’s 47% comment, and Romney’s tax returns.
Will Romney be seen as “winning” the debate matter? The answer is probably only to a minor degree. It probably will help Romney briefly energize his donors and volunteers, but it is unlikely to do much to close his deficit in the polls. There seemed to be no truly memorable gaffes, one liners or standout moments. The general impression was that Romney simply performed better than Obama, but there was no devastating game changing moment.
The simple fact is that analysis of past presidential elections indicate debates have only a very minor impact on the polling and there is little reason to believe this debate should end up being any different.
48 Comments
“…have only a very minor impact on the polling…”
As someone who’s chortled and crowed over every percentage point that indicated Obama might be pulling away, I’d suggest you wait a bit before invoking that dubious conclusion.
Obama had the opportunity to effectively finish off Romney, and instead, Romney has clearly rejuvenated his campaign, at least, for the moment.
He’s wonderfully gaffe-prone, so that can change quickly, but right now, his stock is up, and Obama’s is somewhat in question.
Romney’s “victory” last night will only make his next gaffe more delicious.
Me thinks Mr Romney’s demise has been greatly exaggerated. But then I’m not a pundit. He definitely kicked ass last night.
I just saw the headline on HP. Obama decided to mention the 47%, a little late, but what the hell.
Obama’s getting cocky again, and probably thinks he’s going to coast to re-election. Uh, no. Obama seemed annoyed and disinterested last night, like he doesn’t want to be re-elected.
Marilyn MonroeMitt Romney “I care about jobs”He was at his most oh-so-sincere best last night.
I agree that he won. I still hate him and will never vote for him.
Obama phoned it in.
You know what? That thought crossed my mind. At some point when Kerry was running I thought he gave up too.
Obama revealed himself last night for the corporate lackey he has always been. This probably won’t have much effect on the Great Unwashed, but it will pull down his Progressive Vote. I wouldn’t vote for him after what I saw last night, unless my vote was absolutely required to prevent Romney from becoming President. I would love to see a large decline in the Obama vote in New York and California, enough perhaps to make him lose the popular vote even when he wins the electoral vote. That’s the kind of man-date he deserves for wrecking Social Security and Medicare.
Maybe Obama truly doesn’t want to be re-elected? He’s got ton$$ of payola. Why work so hard? Even though I intensely loath Obama, I gotta admit that it’s not an easy job.
Perhaps Obama’s lack of interest is genuine. Why not let RMoney do some heavy lifting for a while? Since their policies are the same: what the heck?
I like the bi-polar emphasis, but I lean toward “Narcissist in Chief” myself.
I think if Obama got his “debt deal”, he wasn’t going to run for a 2nd term. Ironically, the GOP screwed that up for him.
Just a hunch.
Look, I just talked to a group of undecided seniors in Central Ohio. Here is what I heard…
“Well if I am to call the debate like one would call a boxing match, Romney won the ‘verbally slug the moderator award.’ He lacked respect and decorum. Do I want THAT attitude, THAT arrogance in our foreign policy and leadership? No.”
“Hey, Obama was taking notes. He seemed more thoughtful. Bush was never thoughtful. In that regard, Romney is very much like Bush and I do not want thoughtlessness leading the country again.
One referred to Romney as “snake oil salesman.”
Essentially, this group did not see Romney as a winner but as more of the same brash rudeness they expressed that they are tired of hearing and seeing since Bush-Cheney. Felt Obama had more self-control.
I thought the same thing about not wanting to be re-elected. That confrontation-adversity trait of his was surely showing. So was the condescending professor, which he really isn’t. I know one thing: I’ve never regretted Hillary not becoming President last election so much as I have ever since last night! She would not have allowed it to look as if the leader of the free world was being pushed around by his opposition. Shame on Obama for his milk toast performance, definitely under par. Prior to this debate, this election was Obama’s to lose; now not so much.
Romney was going after swing voters – by any lie necessary.
Obama was tailoring his message to soothe billionaires, corporate doners, big banks because from their whining the policies in effect that have continued insane disparities in wealth aren’t enough.
On the big stage, they must be publicly adored and worshipped.
Obama actually managed to point out that austerity is already in effect and get ready for more.
The tv pundits overlooked that…of course.
NO matter how wewll he did last night, can’t erase the past. NO doubt Obama disappointed a lot of people. But Romney’s been stuck on 191 electoral votes forever. He simply has not path to 270 even if he took FL,OH, and VA. All likely to go to Obama.
Yeah, but…..see my #15.
Lots of “truthiness” from Romney last night. He did come out the undisputed victor. But two more debates left. And Obnama is a quick learner.
But, he did disappoint lots of people.
The only redeeming thing I got from the debate is that Obama was exposed as a duplicitous fraud of a candidate. And that is saying a lot considering he’s up against Mr. Bullsh*t himself in Romney.
Right as uaual.
I think Jim Lehrer had a stroke. Has anybody checked on him?????
Shitheads in, shitheads out.
I agree the “duplictous index” was waaaay off the scale last night, allegedly near 5 on the Enhanced Pelosi Scale.
To me, that’s the whole ballgame.
We’ve been ignoring the “elephant in the room”. What must Ann Romney have thought when her own husband said he would limit her previously itemized deductions of $77,000 for her dancing horse to a mere $17,000. Shit, that won;t even cover the groomer’s salary
Still lots of “anti-Romney” votes. That’s why everybody in a red state should vote third party.
Most people don’t watch “the debates” – they watch television.
As far as the polls being promoted in the media go, these appear to typically follow the dominant media narrative (assuming the media is doing their job well). Thus the Clintonian obsession with “controlling the message”.
Both Romney and Obama gave a performance that feeds what appears to be a media best-case for this totally lame contest.
From here, it plays best for the media to flog a rhetorical Obama loss as far as possible (while he’s scratching around for a “narrative changer” … hint to Team-O: the media is unlikely to be excited by last week’s attack ad). That should drive down his numbers a bit, which are due for a degree of statistical correction from the recent momentum-polling anyhow. My guess is they’ll do everything they can to cast the next debate as a draw and milk the “horse-race” aspect going into debate #3 which will be cast as “Do-or-die redemption after blowing a lead for Obama” vs. “Sealing the deal and grabbing victory from the jaws of defeat” for Romney.
Maybe the Kabuki wouldn’t be so damn annoying if the plot weren’t so damn predictable.
It was almost like watching “Tricky Dick” Nixon debate in the 60′s. That’s how corrupt and far right-wing this f%cker is.
exactly.
Which Romney won? The one that cares about 47% of hard working Americans, not the other Romney that thinks their losers.
How many people under 60 yrs of age want Gov Romney’s voucher care? So much for winning the debate!
Last evening’s event only point out how far our Republican President has painted himself into a corner that he can’t get out of pretending to be for us while serving a corporatized agenda instead.
While Romney may have deceitfully carried the evening for those watching major media outlets – Democracy Now ran an expanded live debate adding in Jill Stein (Green Party) and Rocky Anderson (Justice Party), mostly working to the same script that Lehrer lost quickly at the beginning of the evening.
I thought Rocky did quite well. Too bad Mitt couldn’t hear him, he would have melted from the brain overload. Who knows how that DINOsaur would have handled some actual valid criticism of the state.
Neither FL nor VA are in the bag by any measure. It will be very surprising to me if the Ohio race doesn’t tighten to a significant degree as well (but I don’t know the electorate there enough to have a feel on outcome). I think O’s going to flail in NV when it comes to voting day too.
No idea what that does for the math … haven’t been able to muster up the ability to care enough to look.
I dunno. Back during the primaries, everyone in conventional wisdomland solemnly asserted that any decent Romney performance simply couldn’t erase the reality of being unable to move past 21% in the polling … which means he can’t secure the nomination.
Jon’s title above has to be the understatement of the year, Willard crushed Zero and then fed him crispy Big Bird.
Seriously? You think the guy that passed Obamacare in MA is as far-right-wing as Nixon?
So, what does that make Obama, who’s campaign has been, in no small part, focused on the fact that Obama’s policies are also policies which Romney has expressed support for (and in many cases taken action on in government)?
One of the other comments from the Sr’s who vote independent said, “Did I see a Romney who does care about the 47% who he thinks are losers? No. Therefore, no win for Romney.”
If I fell from space last night and saw Romney and Obama for the first time–I would have hated Romney. And I do. He was worse than rude. He came off as an entitled prick in his dissing the moderator. The rules (law) of the debate meant nothing to Romney–he acted as though rules do not pertain to him. That said so much. Romney appeares to be a guy who wants the sphincter police up everyone elses’ back yet he will refuse to comply himself. That is the worst kind of politician. Is that what millions and only 14% tax on millions does? Ann is not a blond. Her roots match Mitt’s hair. She has the same dark features as Romney. Older photos of the couple when younger kind of makes them look like brother and sister. The talking heads are so wrong about the debate. The very big intangible of Romney appearing like an angry and mean ass has been very underrated.
Obama is a terrible debater. Always has been. Remember that he almost lost the 2008 primaries because of his poor debating skills, which were the worst of the entire Democratic presidential field in that year. He simply can’t think on his feet. (That awful Romney line about getting rid of Big Bird was a slow pitch down the center of home plate that Obama should have hit out of the ball park.)
As opposed to someone who brags about their own youthful marijuana use when it helps get a bit of cred with the kids … while arresting more marijuana users than any president in the history of America? (guaranteeing the opportunity to serve as President is taken from every single one of them just as it would have been taken from Obama had he been required to “shoulder responsibility” for his identical actions)
That kind of putting police on people’s backs … while not complying himself? Yeah. That awesome guy Obama would never do anything like that.
Romney is terrible, no debating it … but the breathtaking hypocrisy it requires for a Democrat to call him on *any* of it is by far the most remarkable thing about the current election season.
Look, Obama has no taste for taking on Republicans because he is one of them.
I think the commenter’s point is addressing the header of “Romney Seen As Having Won.”
Well, at least the country had a chance to learn how Mitt bamboozled our state of MA and became governor.
His MO is to NOT give details, only empty generalities that will make the eyes of the majority glaze over, and worry about the smarter minority later. When the time is urgent to run them over, he’ll pick the moment his opposition is most vulnerable and just lie through his face as if it’s the same words he’s used all along. The man is so absent of any moral fiber that no one can tell the difference or realize that he has twirled the buttons on the etch-a-sketch. He has become a multi-millionaire with the same tactics. He’d feed his mother alive to wolves. It is unbelievable how he can get caught in a bald-face lie, smile and cover it up with another one, never missing a step in his breath, until the logic is so convoluted you give up.
If he wins, at the end of his term (which in terms of work done will be long before the term of office expires) he will order his staff to take the hard-drives out of all computers and deliver them to him. Then he will deny everything except “facts” that he needs, for which he’ll just lie. This is a man who got away with establishing residency by claiming to live in his son’s cellar while his several mansions in other states were being re-modeled, such as elevators in his garages for his Cadillacs. And he’ll say it with his arm on your shoulder that assures you that, you too, can be rich like that some day.
Watching the stages of grief play out among some Liberals is much more entertaining than the debates will ever be. Even tbogg can’t spin a Hippie punch or Sparkle Pony out of the despair.
Had someone from MA state nearly the same comment. Thank you for sharing it.
Think Progress cites 27 lies that Romney totally got away with, while President Obama spent his time talking about how agrees with Romney on Social Security, deficits, and the need for regulations to “stop people from borrowing money to buy houses they can’t afford.”
The real “loser” last night was Jim Lehrer. He should have been put out to pasture years ago. He’s pathetic.
Except when he’s on the stump, Obama’s natural demeanor is cool and subdued, and this being election season, there is an extra layer of that to not appear as the “angry” black guy to white swing voters. If the candidate’s demeanors last night were reversed, all the racists would be out in force today. The Obama team built their lead by playing chess, while Willard and company have been playing checkers. I fully expect their next debate to be different. Already, the string of Willard’s lies last night are making it into the press. By the next debate, those lies will be thrown back into his face by Obama and the voters who will be asking questions in the town hall setting.
My opinion means nothing. I have no great moral standing, education or expertise in politics or anything related to it. I only read a few headlines on the blogs this morning and I only watched the second half of the debate last night.
So, for what it’s worth, here are my impressions of what I saw of it:
I guess I look at this campaign/election with two perspectives:
1.The entire thing is a complete sham and it probably doesn’t matter all that much who wins.
2. The President is a ninety pound weakling, with both hands tied behind his back, in the ring with the champion heavy weight prize fighter.
Last night I felt the President gave the impression (intentionally?) of “I’m doing my best under impossible circumstances with an opponent and opposing party that are completely full of crap and I’m tired of it. It may be that we should accept that idea at face value. Well, because they are. However, I have been around long enough to know that nothing is accidental and there are many, many aspects and influences – deceptions and manipulations to this mess.
A few things bothered me greatly about the President’s performance. The worst, to me, was that he articulated no clear vision or path for our country. Nothing to rally around. From what I saw he seemed content to not even mention the most difficult and pressing issues facing our country and planet (although he may have in the first half of the debate).
While he did talk about the need for regulation of the financial industry (and his challenger’s ties to it) and the causes of the crash, I thought it was lackluster and without any passion at all. It almost seemed he knew he could only go so far in criticizing the real power in our country. And his challenger knew it, spewing all manner of nonsense that he seemed incapable of defending against. And he looked like he was resigned to it. Beaten.
OUR ELECTIONS AND GOVERNMENT ARE NOW CONTROLLED BY CORPORATIONS, (foreign and domestic) THE VERY RICH (foreign and domestic) AND FOREIGN GOVERNEMENTS FROM ACROSS THE GLOBE AND OUR PRESIDENT COULDN’T BRING HIMSELF TO EVEN MENTION THE DEMOCRACY DESTROYING CITIZENS UNITED DECISION AT KEY POINTS IN THE DEBATE?
At one point the President was attacked for investing so much in green jobs, Solyndra in particular, with the throw away line that went something like “the President doesn’t pick winners and losers, he just picks losers”. If I remember correctly, he didn’t make a peep about the need to protect our climate and environment. THE MOST DEVASTATING PROBLEM OUR COUNTRY AND PLANET FACE IS CLIMATE CHANGE AND OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTER AND THE PRESIDENT WAS UNABLE TO MENTION IT IN A NATIONALLY TELEVISED DEBATE? AFTER BEING ATTACKED ABOUT HIS ENVIRONMENTAL RECORD?
One of the last questions was something like “how do you view the role of government and how does it differ from your opponent?” Again, the President seemed unable to articulate a clear vision for the role of government. What I remember about his uninspiring, lackluster answer was that he stressed that his job, and the job of government, is to protect the American people against our enemies. Right . His challenger ate his lunch, even mentioning that the role of the President is to “(preserve) protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.” I realize how scripted and meaningless everything that comes out of the challengers mouth is, but the lack of anything resembling a strong answer on the role of the government and THE PROTECTION OF OUR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTIES from a sitting, democratic President AND CONSTITUTIONAL SCHOLAR, I found most disturbing. It was a perfect opportunity to help clarify some of the difficult issues we face that was lost there.
These are what I consider to be the three most important, most relevant and most difficult challenges for the future of our nation:
1. Protection of our civil liberties as granted us by the Constitution of the United States.
2. The end of Corporate(foreign and domestic) control over our government and elections, wealthy elite (foreign and domestic) control of our government and foreign government control over our government and elections.
3. CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTER WE FACE.
And from what I saw they were among the least discussed topics in the debate (at least in the second half that I watched.)
So, I’m left with my two perspectives:
1. The entire thing is a sham, in which case this is all probably a complete waste of time and I should just ignore it and try to go with the flow and try to enjoy life (sadly, this has never been my nature.)
2.The President is out of his league and I should try to help him or something?
While I’ve been leaning heavily toward the first one for quite some time now, I don’t think it automatically excludes the second. If I think about it like that analogy of being in the ring, with both hands tied behind his back, with a heavy weight prizefighter, it gives me some context to consider. Now, I have no idea what the President really thinks or what his ultimate motives actually are (they’re certainly not clear to me), but for now I’m inclined (perhaps for lack of anything else to hope for) to see the President as completely outmatched in the heavy weight fight of his life, in a corrupt system, against all that money and power. The judges, the boxing commission, the entire system bought and paid for. And maybe the corrupt powers that control the system are telling him to take a dive. Perhaps he’s being told to take mini dives? Perhaps, on certain issues (maybe the three I listed above?) he knows he will step on some powerful toes if he goes too far? Who knows?
There was a lot of discussion last night about healthcare, and taxes, and education etc… All important issues that must be addressed. But I think they pale in comparison to the erosion of our privacy rights and constitutional civil liberties. They pale in comparison to the fact that our elected government and our citizens now answer to rich, powerful, foreign and domestic corporations, rich, powerful, foreign and domestic individuals and foreign governments. They pale in comparison to the environmental disasters we are facing right now.
I’m clear that Mr. Romney would be a disaster for our country. But I’m also clear that President Obama would be as well if he continues to ignore the most important challenges we face.
I’m sure there are many decisions and tradeoffs he has to make as president. Maybe at some point he will get tired of being told what to do and get up off the mat, not take the dive AND FIGHT!!!
Most posts here are more brief and I usually don’t take the time to read the lengthy ones like yours.
But, this is a very good analysis and commentary and, frankly, an interesting read. I think you have done an excellent job of expressing the feeling of many people here at FDL and in the country as a whole.
Concernint your last paragraph, maybe Michelle will.
Obomber is way way way over his head and has been since day 1. RMONEY just can’t wait to gut DC and sell it off like any other juicy Corp. he’s made a killing from dismantling. He already has the one line zingers ready for how privatizing the Gov’t and selling off the best parts to his Wall st. pals is for everyone’s benefit and I’m sure Obomber will agree from retirement.
If the two men were the personification of drugs last night, Obama would have been MJ and Romney would have been Crack.
The real tragedy is that third party ideas and candidates were once again excluded. Here is a transcript of the debate with Jill Stein and Rocky Anderson included. http://www.democracynow.org/seo/2012/10/4/expanding_the_debate_exclusive_third_party
Mitt Romney has a pre-existing condition: LYING.
In fact, practically every Republican I can think of has the same pre-existing condition, one apparently for which there is no known cure.