Debate probably comes at a good time for both candidates if this recent polling is accurate–Obama could nip a Romney rebound in the bud; Romney could build on these gains. . . You also have to wonder whether the largely false wave of optimism about the economy–part-predicated on Democratic party-leaners rose colored post-convention glasses–might not crater between now and November 6. Should things tighten up, Obama may be grateful for early voting.

Good points all. Romney just doesn’t have a path to victory without Ohio. FL and VA thusly become academic. I can’t see Romney picking up any votes from the debates. He has waaaay too many positions to defend and waaaay too few defenses to use.

If I were Romney, I’d hire somebody to stand up there and take all the body punches for me.

Democracy Now is going to air the debate however in addition, it will give Green Party Dr Jill Stein equal time to answer the questions. It will be refreshing to see non-corporate puppet responses.

What is the possibility that the Dems could pick gain senate seats overall?

Rocky Anderson will participate, too.

Given the participation of Stein and Anderson, I think this will be a worthwhile event, instead of the usual blather-spewing spinmonkey fest.

Then it is a must see show! Can’t wait!

Re : Romney. He’s been out of the public eye for a week, hasn’t said anything particularly stupid, so his numbers are creeping up a little. Tonight he displays his narcissism for all to see, and it will cost him a few points.

@ Roadstreetbuddy Re : senate seats – if I’m reading Nate Silver’s graph correctly, his highest two probabilities are 54 and 56 (including independents). Either would be a small increase. Several of the races are close, more so than any of us expected. It could all still slide the other way. I’m sticking with my prediction from six months ago – if the Ds have a good year they could gain two seats, if they have a bad year they could lose two seats (still clinging to control).

Sounds reasonable. However, control of the Senate resides with any “plurality” of one Senator. Specifically, whatever Senator threatens a filibuster. All stop, thanks for playing, move along.

I have low expectations from the Senate, no matter who is in control.

Yes, I just watched the debate highlights at the NYTimes and despite my absolute disdain for people like Texgov Perry, I cringe for these noodles sometimes. I could see Romney, whose Id seems to crowd his ego pretty closely anyway (see ‘who let the dogs out’ comment), running screaming and foaming from the stage. Maybe he’ll re-deputize himself like he did in his Michigan student days and arrest Obama for Presidenting While Black.

Thanks, wagthedog, for noting the Democracy Now presentation; hope they will edit it for later watching, too.

Reid seems pissed about obstructionism. I don’t expect the filibuster to actually go away, but I expect the appointment approval process to be streamlined. There is a big backlog of federal judges to approve, Geitner may be leaving, Clinton will definitely be leaving, and there may be two SC justices to approve. This crap about not allowing any votes on appointments has to stop. I can see the anonymous holds and filibuster being removed for appointments – the relevant committee refers it to the floor, and simple majority up or down vote. Republicans will whine about appointments being rammed through (before they have a chance to take over the government again), but things will grind forward.

Reid seems pissed about obstructionism.

It took Reid long enough, didn’t it? He’s been in the Senate since 1987.

Thanks for the update Dave!

“…it appears Romney’s nose-dive has finally stopped.”

Why on earth would it stop? That is, all 4-5 points of it…

I mean, Romney, himself, has done nothing to arrest it, and Obama certainly hasn’t done anything to earn it. All HE can do is talk like a reform democrat while flacking the same old “We suck less!” campaign theme.

I think what’s happened is that a shitload of voters are disgusted enough with Obama’s four-year cave that they’re willing to forgive Romney practically anything short of evidence that he’s a pederast. If that’s true, then all bets are off when it’s time to hit the touchscreen.

“It took Reid long enough, didn’t it.”

Well, let’s be fair here; when Obama had Reid kill the Dorgan amendment to allow for re-importing cheap generic drugs, the republicans didn’t obstruct that. :o)

Did I mention that if the repubs pick up 4 or 5 seats, they’ll have the Senate?

If that happens, then HARRY and the democrats can be the obstructors…any bets on how well they’ll fulfill that role?

I thought not. :o)

“What is the possibility that the dems could gain Senate seats overall?”

I think, about nil.

And if they do, I cordially invite someone to tell me what they’ll accomplish with, say, an 8 seat majority, when all they did with that 18 seat majority is pass a “healthcare reform” bill that was practically written by the robber barons at Humana, Wellpoint, United Healthcare, etc…

“…might not crater between now and November the sixth.”

Excellent point.

The tinkerbelle “O” cheerleaders, are so desperate for anything that they can push as evidence of Obama’s pulling away, that reality mustn’t interfere with their turd-polishing.

Starting tonight, it’s gonna be an interesting month.

I should think that the polls are now being moved (when they move at all) mainly by advertising. Mitt still has a substantial war chest to throw at Obama in the last four weeks of the campaign. He has to decide where to use it. At this point it doesn’t make sense to spend it in Ohio. Virginia, though, probably works with him owing to the high number of knuckledraggers in that state. Same holds for Florida. I assume Obama is holding something back to counter the attack. Ads are like artillery assaults in the First World War.

A lot of his Caucus like the leverage the filibuster gives them over budget and other items. I think it is very unlikely the filibuster or anything like it will be abolished. Too many fingers in the pie for that to happen.

Nice discussion today, you and dave. Agreed, democrats likely to gain 2 senate seats. Not that that will help much. If you think McConnell, Kyl and their band of merry assholes we mad about Obama winning last time, wait ’til THIS time. They’ll do everything they can to sabotage the country.

Accordingly, a democratic re-take of the house may mean nothing at all. Obama and the democrats have simply not learned how to govern even when they hold both houses.

Timmy is certainly gone. That could be a mixed blessing. I think Hillary wants out but, we’ll have to wait and see that. Will Obama get to appoint two justices? Now THAT will bew interesting.

The operative word in your comment is in the first sentence – “seems”. Reid loves him some Kabuki.

“…have simply not learned HOW TO GOVERN…”

It’s a good post, ‘guy, but I suggest that, very quickly after the big win in 2008, they learned HOW NOT TO GOVERN.

And they did it willfully and determinedly.

If we get appointment reform (I think we will), I expect Ginsberg to retire ASAP (summer 2013, would be 80), then Breyer (summer 2014, would be 76) who would probably be happy having Obama name his successor.

That would leave Kennedy (78 in 2014) and Scalia (78 in 2014). Scalia will obviously hang on until they wheel him out in a gurney, but what would Kennedy do? Would he be satisfied to have Obama name a successor? Would the results of the midterms matter? Suppose the Democrats make modest gains and the economy picks up a bit, making it look like another Democrat could win the Presidency in 2016. Better the devil you know? Kennedy might take his bird in the hand and retire in 2015.

Romney lost any possible advantage he had in Ohio when he said the Detroit Big Three should be allowed to go under. He lost whatever chance he had in Ohio when he picked Paul Ryan as his running mate. Then he lost whatever chance he had of staying within 5 points with that “47%” remark.

Much ado has been made about Obama blowing it by not mentioning that little piece of honesty from Mitt Romney. In Ohio, it does not matter. The 47% remark, in all its glory, is inescapable on both the television and radio devices. And it speaks for itself.

I will vote for Stewart Alexander in November–hey, at least Marist HAD “other” as a selection–because I refuse to vote for any Fascist. That doesn’t mean I don’t know how to read polls.

For Romney, Ohio is lost.