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Earlier in the cycle the Republicans had high hopes for Wisconsin. It appears to be one of the only states where Mitt Romney stood a good chance of expanding the map to make up for potential loses in previously traditional Republicans states like Virginia. The naming of Wisconsin native Paul Ryan as VP was part of a real push to win the state and it did produce a noticeable boost for the ticket there at the time. That bump, though, appears to have faded. Three new polls of the state this week all show President Obama with a solid lead.
PPP (9/18-19)
Barack Obama 52%
Mitt Romney 45%
Undecided 3%
Marquette Law School (9/13-16)
Barack Obama 54%
Mitt Romney 40%
Undecided 4%
Don’t know 1%
Refused 1%
Quinnipiac (9/11-17)
Barack Obama 51%
Mitt Romney 45%
Someone else 1%
DK/NA 3%
Not only is Obama over 50 percent in all three polls but also the recent trend has clearly been in his favor. PPP’s August poll actually found Romney ahead by a single point, not today. Similarly. according to Marquette Obama’s standing in the state has improved significantly. Their August poll had Obama beating Romney by just three points.
If Wisconsin moves back out of the swing state column Romney’s potential paths to 270 Electoral College votes become very narrow.
10 Comments
Could we also please get it together and take Ryan’s Congressional seat away from him?
Support Rob Zerban; the fleabag DNC and DCCC won’t. He needs the help of individuals.
All that money you’re NOT giving to Obama because he’s slime: give it to Zerban, or another deserving congressional candidate.
I notice Quinnipiac has “someone else” but the other two don’t.
I get polled all the time. Maybe I’m one of the last people in America with a land line. The last two (one today) had the same flawed question : “Obama, Romney, or Undecided”. That’s when I hang up. The effect of that is either to push the decided third party voter into O or R, or inflate the Undecided. Since Undecided is so small this year, inflating it with third party voters really distorts the state of the race.
Jon, Thank you for the post.
My concern here is that if we grow too confident because of these polls, some will not vote and we need every vote and not feel any confidence until the results are finalized. Two words, Kathy Nicholaus Clerk of Waukesha County, she who found a whole lot of votes on her personal computer 14,000 I believe that defeated the challenger to a Supreme Court Justice of Wisconsin who just happened to be a Republican.
Mauimom made a great suggestion in supporting Rob Zerban. The DNC and DCCC seek to conserve their monies when they could be doing some real good.
We know Ryan is getting nervous by running two campaign ads in the last week for his House seat. He needs to be sent packing to the lobby firm that will accept him.
Where oh where is Howard Dean with his winning 50-state strategy?
time to dust off the diebold machines.
Sorry, no Democrats allowed in the Democratic Party.
As I’ve said before, this election is OVER. When Fox News has Obama up by 7 in Florida and by 8 in Ohio, it’s done.
As for Wisconsin, when the Republican candidate for Senate, Tommy Thompson, says “Romney is dragging me down,” that’s a sure sign, too.
I reckon so, as today, Romney campaign is almost done and i don’t think he would turn that around, but anyway i’m voting for Romney.
Howard’s out lobbying for terrorists.
There is the Democratic fuckin’ party in a nutshell. Pontificate about how horrible Ryan is and how stupid his contributions to Congress are and then not do a single meaningful damn thing to actually get him out of office.
They’re hunky dory with him in office so they can make political hay out of his stupidity ad nauseaum.
Thanks Mmom,
All things small “d,” from Ryan’s hometown blogger.