For the past week the polling of Massachusetts had been mostly good news for Elizabeth Warren up until today. Four polls of the state early this week all found her leading by single digits, but a new UMass Lowell/Boston Herald poll of likely voters has Scott Brown up by four. From the Boston Herald:
U.S. Sen. Scott Brown has moved into a narrow lead over rival Elizabeth Warren while his standing among Massachusetts voters has improved despite a year-long Democratic assault, a new UMass Lowell/Boston Herald poll shows.
The GOP incumbent is beating Warren by a 50-44 percent margin among registered Bay State voters, a turnaround from the last University of Massachusetts Lowell/Herald poll nine months ago that had the Democratic challenger leading by seven points. Among likely voters, Brown is leading the Harvard Law professor by a 49-45 percent margin, just within the poll’s 5.5 percent margin of error.
If you average all four polls released this week it gives Warren the lead, although only a small one. While at this point Warren is still the favorite win, this poll is a reminder that the election remains close. Brown could still hold on to his seat.
The election could end up coming down to turnout and on that front there is good news for Warren and all other Democrats in tight races this year. According to Gallup the Democratic base has become significantly more enthusiastic about voting this year.