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Two new polls both show that Democrat Elizabeth Warren leads incumbent Republican Scott Brown in the Massachusetts Senate race. This an improvement from earlier in the cycle when some polls showed Brown with a small advantage.
The Western New England University poll of likely voters has Warren leading by six points. It found Warren 50 percent to Brown 44 percent. This is the largest lead for Warren found by any public poll of likely voters.
Public Policy Polling found Warren with a smaller two point lead but this is a real improvement from their last poll which had Brown ahead. Their recent poll has Warren 48 percent to Brown 46 percent. By comparison one month ago PPP found Brown leading 49 percent to Warren 44 percent.
The big problem for Brown is his party label. Massachusetts voters really like him but they still aren’t planning to vote for him. His job approval numbers in both polls are extremely impressive and should make any other incumbent envious. The university found 57 percent of likely voters approve of his job performance with just 30 percent disapproving. Similarly, PPP has his job approval at 55/34.
It would seem in a deeply Democratic state, voters simply don’t want to see Republicans take control of the Senate. If that means voting against a Republican they like, then that is what they will do.
27 Comments
I’m not a Democrat any more, but go, Liz, go!
I guess the job approval rating gives insight to the question I have been asking about Brown, which is how well is he doing his real job. Apparently he really is doing a pretty decent job, but MA just prefers a dim to represent the state. Will Warren really be much different than Brown?
I find it hard to understand why this election is so close. Is it simply the power of incumbency? Is Warren running a poor campaign? Is the money really lopsided?
Warren strikes me as a straightforward New Deal/Labor/Civil Rights Democrat. Shouldn’t that play well in MA?
There’s at least one (if not more) Warren-Brown debate(s) coming up. I don’t think there’s any question but that she can kick his ass into the next time zone. Here’s hoping she does. On the flip side, Count on a shit-ton of outside money to be
pimpedpumped into the Scott side of this race. The Demo machine needs to respond in kind, although (if the Wisconsin recall in any indicator) they seem incapable of grasping this rather elementary concept. Buncha dumbasses.Brown is prettier.
Citizen BearCountry:
Warren is the real deal, Brother Bear, she took on slimey Larry Summers in high level combat at Harvard and kicked his ass and now he ain’t there anymore. She has never waivered from real progressive economics and, to many, is far more progressive than our man Paul Krugman…and more importantly she has never appologized for progressive taxation or social insurance and Medicare and she is a real alternative to Mrs. Clinton in 2016 if she’s given the next four years in the Senate.
No Citizen Bear Country, Elizebeth Warren is indeed the real thing here.
i was in SF last weekend and watching ballgames at a bar. A scott brown add came on the red sox game.
I gave $100 to Liz.
go Warren.
We live in hope. Good to see you back here. She wins and she becomes the most serious democratic contender for 2016, unless Jeb Bush changes his party identification, which given where Obama has taken the Dems wouldn’t be all that hard to do.
I think like you do.But this Brown guy is fairly popular. IN an anti-republican environment like we currently have, she oughta win faily easily.
In 2016 Warren will be 67, Clinton will be 69. Don’t expect either of them to run for President. Nor Biden, who will be 74.
Warren could get two, maybe three terms in the Senate. Maybe even four if she hangs on until they wheel her out on a gurney.
It does appear to me that the DNC has their head in the sand and have for the past 8 years or so.
One of the problems for the democrats. No young talent. Just a bunch of worthless old farts.
all the smart, savvy democrats are political pundits.
Has better legs too.
Did I say that out loud??????
Clinton would be the same age as Reagan in 1980. Didn’t stop him from winning twice, even if Alzimer’s set in halfway through his 8 year stay.
Warren will be a fine Senator, but she is too far left on the spectrum to ever win as part of a national ticket, and the Dems aren’t going to have two women on the 2016 ticket. Whether we like it or not, it’s literally Hillary’s for the taking. Why do you think Bill is all out 100% for Obama? He’s paving the way for her in 2016.
This is why I was hoping for a different VP on the ticket, s/he would be the front runner for the nomination in 2016. But I can see why Obama didn’t want to shake up a winning team. He’s ahead, but not THAT far ahead.
Brian Schweitzer may run against Baucus in 2014, but won’t be on anyone’s short list for years.
Sandra Fluke is obviously being groomed for something, but she’ll have to establish some national credentials first.
Are we ready for the Chelsea Clinton Presidency?
Jennifer Granholm isn’t native born, otherwise she would be an interesting choice.
We may have to have an election to find out!
I’ll have what you’re having.
Holding up America’s worst President as an example doesn’t really make the point. He wasn’t too old to win, he was just too old to do the job. And I’m not convinced he wasn’t already senile in 1980.
She will be too old, and she knows it. I think she’ll be glad to be done with the SoS job too. She will, however, be out campaigning, just like Bill is, because she likes to. Kind of like being a grandparent – all the fun, none of the worries.
I love Jennifer Granholm. Didn’t know she wasn’t native born.
I don’t know who the democrats can find to run in 2016. And the thought of today’s GOP getting back in the White House scares the crap out of me.
Will Jeb Bush be the presumptive nominee for 2016???????
67 is young these days.
Brown is popular here, but Romney will cost him some points. It’ll be enough for Warren to win I think.
There was a debate announced on TV a few days ago. Thurs 9/20 on WBZ. We’ll see. Liz needs to avoid some of the frenetic shrillness, which doesn’t play as well outside I-495. Also, Liz, try to pick up a non-rhotic accent.
Thanks, I haven’t had a good answer to my question so I feel better. I just don’t want to see her turn into a milder version of a blue dog.
And when the time came to stand up to Obama she caved.
Sorry, but she’s a Democratic harpy who proudly supports Obama and the party line every night on her corporate “independent” show on CurrentTV. Don’t get fooled again.
The problem for the so-called Democrats is that they represent the same corporatist interests as the Republicans, yet still chose to identify with the uniparty duopoly. Don’t let your guard down and get fooled by the Kabuki.
C’mon ncg, how can you not include the corporatist presidency of the faux Democrat who fought for and approved NAFTA, Welfare Reform, the Financial Services Modernization Act, and the Commodities Futures Modernization Act?
These policies are the foundation for the current economic disaster and are the result of the Clinton administration.
Precisely. I wonder how many people are aware of her position on war with Iran, or the fact that she refuses to come out in favor of marijuana legalization? Warren is another wolf in sheep’s clothing.