When Mitt Romney received little to no bounce out of his convention I initially discounted it as not a very big deal, assuming convention bounces were a thing of the past. I thought the lack of bounce was merely the byproduct of an election where most voters have already made up their minds and only a very small number of people are truly undecided. The race had been remarkably static and I assumed almost nothing could significantly move the numbers.
I was wrong. It is clear that unlike Romney, President Obama did receive a noticeable bounce from his convention. According to the Gallup daily tracking poll Obama’s lead grew by four points among registered voters. The CNN poll found Obama’s lead grew by six points among likely voters. The Washington Post/ABC News poll found Obama’s lead among registered voters improved by seven points.
Apparently, a candidate can still get a bounce out of a convention. The issue was not that it is impossible, only that the Romney campaign simply failed to do it.
What should be the most concerning to the campaign about Romney’s lack of bounce is not that he is currently trailing two months out from the election, but rather what it says about the two campaigns. For three days the American people listened to what was basically a non-stop free infomercial for Romney. The Republicans were uninterrupted as they put forward their best arguments for their candidate, and the electorate simply wasn’t moved by it. On the other hand, when Democrats got their three days to make their best arguments, it clearly resonated with enough voters to make a significant difference.
It indicates that at its core the current Obama messaging can work if people hear it while the current Romney messaging doesn’t seem to connect. This should cause Republicans to seriously examine how they are running this campaign. Even a big cash advantage won’t make a difference if it is being used to promote a message that doesn’t work.




30 Comments
It seems a glamorous wife and some flowery speeches can distract people from extradudicial assassination and indefinite detention.
Wait: Romney has a message? We should get Wolf Blitzer on the case. He’ll get to the bottom of it…right after these messages.
I don’t think people are distracted. I think they’re reluctantly coming to the conclusion that four more years of Obama will suck less.
Outside of FDL, I haven’t found many people even aware of the extent of the drone war. And almost all the people I talk to don’t really care as long as it’s only Scary Brown Moslems getting whacked. Or indefinately detained.
If anything, those seem to work to Obama’s benefit with the overall electorate.
Boxturtle (If Mitt loses, imagine all the Conservative gigabucks that were wasted)
While Romney has no message, Obama’s glib message is falling on many deaf ears; we’ve heard it before.
Neither RMoney or DMoney has a “message” other than to bend over and take it.
A 4-6 point convention bounce is impressive, considering how few undecided voters there are in this election. Assuming the lead holds up, Romney has two strikes against him. He swung and missed on his running mate and on the convention; the debates represent his last chance to avoid whiffing on the election.
Yup. Local Dem bigwig said to me after I’d picked on Obama for a bit: “I’m not gonna defend him, I can’t. But I’m gonna vote for him”.
Boxturtle (Said it better than I could)
A-yup. Don’t matter whether they’re tribalistic authoritarain “R” voters or tribalistic authoritarian “D” voters. Neither “camp” seems to give a shit about WAR, Inc and drones and killing dusky hued foreigners, including women & kids. There’s even been commenters here at FDL (I don’t think they’re sock puppet trolls, either, but could be) who claimed that they were “glad” that Obama assassinated al-Awlaki. They claim that he “deserved” it (with usual bullshit about how “if you haven’t done anything wrong, you have nothing to fear”).
How LOW the mighty have fallen to lick the boot heels of their oppresseors gladly and with fervor.
Good luck. Not me. Voting Third Party. Won’t change anything, but I refuse to “waste” my vote on an empty suited posseur who means no good to me and mine. ptoui!
I’m not sure that Obama made a whole lot better impression than Romney. What was attractive to voters about the Democratic convention was the party itself, with its huge diversity of membership and the space it was providing for somewhat progressive ideas. Obama was carried by his party, and looked very much the representative of a rightist party faction that would not necessarily stay in control.
Enabler. Voting for O will allow him to move father right.
And if O loses, the DLC/Third Way crowd will call for the Democrats to move farther right. In the words of Simon and Garfunkel, “every way you look at this you lose.”
Those people at the convention would be the Ds happy to eat crumbs from the tables of their betters.
Me, either. To me, the point now is not whether the equally repulsive R or D wins. It’s getting those shaky R’s and D’s to come on over to the third party candidate of their choice and vote their consciences. Every party loyalist who becomes fed up and vows to vote for a third party candidate is a small victory. Every person who stays in the party and votes for O or R out of fear is a sad loss.
Righto.
Two nonvoters of the past were William Lloyd Garrison and W.E.B. DuBois.
I’m working on a short version of why that is a preferable position but without their moral authority. Here’s the 1956 DuBois quote
Hardly. Only you and the others who get paid to discuss such crap.
I cannot discount the power of advertising. Frank Luntz with KKKarl Rove’s money is a formidable foe. If Obama does win, then he will have to deal with a Republican Congress.
I do not dispute that. I think the next four years under Obama will SUCK in a very major way.
I just think Rmoney will suck much worse.
I should maybe accept my GOPer neighbor’s offer. He doesn’t vote for Rmoney, I don’t vote for Obama and we both go to the bar instead and bitch about how much our choices suck.
Boxturtle (That would be more economic stimulus than either candidate will provide)
Yes, and happily so. It’s the true “party” that Obama is the head of. Obama will joyfully bend himself into a pretzel to *appear* like Mr. Bipartisany in front of his f*cking r*tarded base in order to pretend that he gives a shit about the 99%. Obama will be quite overjoyed to work with a fully Republican Congress. Then Republicans will “own” all three branches of gov’t. CHA-CHING for the 1%… money money money…
yeah, just like what Nadar said in 2000, and look how so-called “progressives” diss and scorn Nadar. I have my issues with Nadar, and I never thought he would be voted in to be POTUS, but frankly, Nadar was telling the truth. They say the truth shall set you free, and frankly, what I see is a huge majority of citizens still imprisoned in their delusional fairy tales about so-called “differences” between the laughingly called “two-party” system. Even the “sucks less” definition is absolutely horse-hockey (no offense intended to anyone bc I do respect the opinions of most commenters here, but I call it as I see it).
There IS. NO. SUCH. THING. as “sucks less.” That’s a delusion.
I should maybe accept my GOPer neighbor’s offer. He doesn’t vote for Rmoney, I don’t vote for Obama and we both go to the bar instead and bitch about how much our choices suck.
If you do that, I suggest a bitter beer. That, and a taxi ride home.
If there’s an election. Rove & Co. already fear if the Kenyan Muslim wins, he’ll cancel the 2016 elections and take a third term, so they’ll jimmy all the necessary tumblers for a Republican victory, which the incumbent will find unacceptable. If Rove objects, he’ll be pepper-sprayed.
Yup Nader was right, he saw from the inside that the DemocRats are rotten to the core. Of course, Romney could easily beat Obama by giving some left candidate like 100 million dollars plus with the stipulation that they utterly savage Obama from the left (for being a subhuman liar and con man). But luckily for the Rats they can’t do that because the %1 know that would be very bad for them and their Uniparty total control.
Agree 100%. It appears that Romney and his supporters will likely spend $1.2 BILLION on his losing campaign.
I love it when bad things happen to bad people.
GOP, and Romney in particular, have made a pretty big mess of this whole thing. I genuinely think that the democrats have a good chance of re-taking the house. Not because they are better, just because the public is equally fed up with the GOP as they were with the dems in 2010. Lots of people will be voting anti-incumbent IMO.
MIght make for an interesting dynamic. Don’t get me wrong,it won’t make much difference for us 99%, but it might be interesting.
I don’t believe the Republicans are overly concerned with messaging. They think they can steal this one.
THEY DON’T “CONNECT” BECAUSE THEY ARE DISCONNECTED
TODAY’S REPUBLICANISM…..IS THE VICTORY OF THE “ID” OVER THE “SUPER EGO”
Today’s Republicans don’t believe that intelligence, logic, compassion or an appreciation or acknowledgment of historical facts or legal precedents are required, relevant or worthy of consideration.
Driving jobs out of America and Americans out of their homes is “just business” to them; nothing “personal”.
Corporations should be given the same first amendment free speech rights as individual citizens so they can “buy” political candidates and elections, despite the fact that works against the best interests of working class Americans and further diminishes their political relevance/influence.
Pollution, global warming and deforestation are all improvable “myths” of egg-head/tree-hugger scientists who are “socialist” enemies of “over-regulated” capitalism. The earth, which right wing fundamentalist claim is less than 6,000 years old, will miraculously heal itself! All we have to do is “pray”.
For today’s mercenary self-focused deviant breed of dysfunctional near-sighted Republicans, it’s not about right or wrong, good or bad, fair or unfair, rational or irrational…..it’s about power and control, even if that means intellectual, moral, psychological and functional delusion, denial and dishonesty. They want what they want for no other reason than they WANT it……regardless of the consequences to themselves and everyone else! Somehow, that makes “them” feel good about themselves…..makes them “feel” safe.
So sick of Mitt already.
of course, waht’s worse is that Obama will spend the same or more on his winning effort.
I hate it when bad things occur to all the people…
I’m with ya 100%. While I wish all third party people well, I’m going fishin.