I typed last night how stoopid O was to sched his BIG SPEECHifying the night before the emp rep.

But I quibble.

96,000 is the seasonally adjusted number. They always use the seasonally adjusted number. So too are many other economic numbers seasonally adjusted, and wrong.

The real number was 252,000. I kid you not. The number is right there in the BLS numbers but everyone reads the press release with the SA number at the top line, and they report it.

These numbers are very volatile and there are seasonal trends but the adjustments are a mess.

If I didn’t know better I would say the low, and wrong, recent numbers are a thumb on the scale to push the Fed to do more printing. (Even though the banks have $1.6 trillion dollars sitting at the Fed doing nothing. Which is why QE is highly unlikely now) I don’t think the BLS is skewing the numbers down for political purposes because that isn’t how the world works. It’s just people being stupid and institutional inertia.

The article detailing the Seasonal Adjustment follies.

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2012/09/07/wtf-is-wrong-with-the-jobs-data-actual-numbers-were-strong-seasonal-adjustment-is-wrong/

Coupled with the fact that most of the jobs created during the “recovery” (quotation marks intentional) are crappy low paying jobs, the news is even worse but not unexpected.

I’ve been out of work for almost four years. My anniversary is first week in November, party hats all around. Who in the political class from the county level up is paying any attention? Their efforts are on subsidizing the bigs and finishing off the unions. (To which union “leaders” offer, at best, token resistance. Co-opted is probably too kind.)

It isn’t about jobs as much as jobs that actually pay average Americans a fair wage and significantly over the threshold of the poverty level, while the billionaire Wall Street types that typically have pols attention, (instead of the 99%) want the DNC to insert a plank about another country such as Israel instead of the shafted Americans.

Let’s be honest and candid, what American really gives a flying #$%k about Israel and Jerusalem, other than those with lots of money.

Over a year, the seasonal adjustments cancel out.

The year-over-year number, divided by 12, is 151,000/month.

In the last two months, not seasonally adjusted, the average monthly change was -502,000/month. Same link.

I saw waht you typed and I was paying attention b/c I respect your knowlege.

But Obama is doing the best he can. His hands are tied and Dick Cheney, Kissinger and Negroponte are very mean bosses whom insist that Obama sell the Austerity with relish. Otherwise, it’s JFK redux.

It’s about both pay & jobs.

Neolib shibboleth is that pay increases are inflationary. Wrong like every other neolib shibboleth but I’m not going there tonight.

Merkuns don’t give a ff about Israel, and esp don’t give a ff about Palestinians.

AIPAC is a shiny objective to divert political attention away from far worse lobbyists, like HC, PhRMA, ind ag, Monsanto MIIC, et.

it’s JFK redux.

I have a friend who advanced the same argument.

There’s this thing called morals. Doing evil, even if it is the ‘best you can’, is still evil and should be called out as such. If O didn’t want the consequences, he had the choice of not running.

Furthermore, I reject your premise. Both O and JFK ran with relish for power & whatever it took to get it. Immoral both of them. Just bc O has sold out harder doesn’t grant him superiority.

They might balance out if they don’t alter the adjustment calculations but assuming they don’t then at some point everyone will be all hot and bothered by numbers higher than the actual. To what purpose exactly?

The spread between the real and SA number is gigantic. Politicians and pundits are making all sorts of conclusions about a number which distorts the on the ground right real situation and so their conclusions are wrong.

Don’t get me wrong. There are millions less full time jobs than 4.5 years ago and when you consider population growth this is a disaster.

Neolib shibboleth is that pay increases are inflationary. Wrong like every other neolib shibboleth

Wrong. A fraud by mercenary perps.

AIPAC is a shiny objective to divert political attention away from far worse lobbyists

Huh. And yet no progress. Not exactly sacrificial anode, comrade. Maybe cause they have best protection?

Huh?

Your posts consist of insulting other posters without adding info, plus repetition of hackneyed phrases.

Doing evil, even if it is the ‘best you can’, is still evil and should be called out as such. If O didn’t want the consequences, he had the choice of not running.

If O’Bummer didn’t sell out, they would’ve found somebody else who would. The thesis is quite likely.

O still an asshole, of course.

Insulting? You mean you are insulted if you are confronted? Whoa, you’re off your handle, comrade.

Interesting.

Your linked source was not an honest.

I did this analysis for 30 years. Talking head after #s came out on cable fin news.

You don’t know me, so don’t regard my opinion any better or worse than what you linked.

But you can look at the numbers for yourself where I linked, if you’re so inclined.

If you care, and no offense if you don’t, there is a talent to the analysis. It involves having a prior based on fundamentals, and a strong knowledge of the volatility of the monthly numbers, to either fit into one’s prior or knowing when to change it.

This is why I rarely comment on econ anymore.

Everybody has a strong opinion and few have the creds to back theirs up.

I would rather be right than wrong, but I would much rather know when to change my opinion when evidence proves I was wrong.

FWIW.

I’m not insulted when confronted. I love confrontations.

You insult without evidence, just accusations.

Funny, you’re often thin on evidence yourself. Question is, how was I insulting you, hmm?

Maybe you’re a little hypocritical tonite, comrade.

Perhaps you should retake a reading comprehension course.

Seems like you are a little thin on the subject.

As for my evidence, you might start by clicking on links.

I don’t recall that you’ve provided any links, “comrade”.

You’re on fire tonite. Can’t answer my question, spewing out retributory insults for non-existant sleights, and making shit up.

Had a bad day, comrade?

We’ll let more objective others judge.

ah

252,000 full time jobs were added in August 2012.

Everyone thinks only 96,000 full time jobs were added in August.

The entire political and market universe today revolved around that second number as does this thread.

Nobody was saying that the 252,000 number deserved to be made 96,000 because it will all even out by next August. Not only because most don’t know about the SA and any reasonable person would say if they knew about it, WTF. Well, except economists I suppose.

Pitiful. Have I found one of your buttons, comrade?

I said that. I also said that the 2-month NSA number was negative.

Ya pays ur dues, ur makes ur choice.

Get your eyesight checked.

Get your ego massaged.

Let me butt in here a moment. Can you tell me the difference between the “A” tables and the “B” tables. They have different employment numbers.

Please do. eCAHN, you rise to Ludwig’s snotty baiting too easily. Ludwig’s is the stock in trade of anyone who doesn’t have a fact to argue. And he’s cluttering up the thread.

Appears that “A” tables include farm payrolls while “B” do not. The explanation is in the technical note of the news release. The official unemployment rate comes from the “B” tables it appears to me.

I’ll say it again.

Stop all visas for people coming into this country and working.

Send the people home who are here.

WE DO NOT OWE THE WORLD A JOB!

At this rate of job creation the unemployed are going to die before there’s ever a job created from them.

And that’s no exaggeration. When you takes these numbers and project into the future we are fucked.

Too many compradors to stop the process, comrade.

Average hourly pay is 23.52. Average earnings per week 809 vs 702 in 02.(august) I’m surprised. (wonder if I got it right?)

Yes, I think that also explains why the labor force has come down (which leads to a lower unemployment rate). People are retiring or just giving up and living on one paycheck per household. You can do that if one of you makes out ok. But what does a single person do?

There is one of the problems of the thugs. They actually want to lower the minimum wage.

Compradors have to for their own competitiveness.

Of course, comrade. It’s all bc of the “free” market you know.

Have to find a employed person to marry. Of course, their employment might not be for long. And then you have two mouths to beg food for.

I disagree with the assessment that he’s doing the best he can. As it stands he still doesn’t seem to get how to articulate the deficit matters less than creating jobs that can sustain a household even as the majority of the country has told him THAT should be his priority.

A lot of them want to eradicate the floor entirely. That being said, originally Romney spoke about increasing the minimum wage and indexing it.

Then there was Barack Obama who spoke about increasing it in 2008 and then promptly ignored it in favor of talk about deficit reduction.

It seems to me we are headed to a dark future no matter who wins. Both parties will do the bidding of them that paid for them.