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A coin toss? (photo: Dbenbenn / wikimedia)
Before changing their plans due to hurricane Issac, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan were planning to attend their first post-convention campaign rally in Virginia with Senate candidate George Allen. It is too bad because having all three of them campaigning together in Virginia would have been almost poetic, since like it or not, all three are basically running on a single ticket in the state which could easily decide everything this November.
The Senate – Presidential race has turned out to be a remarkably party line affair in Virginia. Past traditions of ticket splitting have almost completely disappeared this cycle. The number of voters planning to vote a ballot for both Mitt Romney and Democratic Senate candidate Tim Kaine is extremely small.
Unlike in most highly contested Senate races this year (Massachusetts, Connecticut, Montana and Missouri) where there is a huge divergence between how the Democrat is doing and how Obama is polling, in Virginia polling for the Presidential and Senate contests are almost identical. The Real Clear Politics polling average for the Presidential race in Virginia has Obama with a 0.6 point lead. The average for the Virginia Senate race is also 0.6 point lead for Kaine.
It is likely both contests will come down to an issue of turnout and how undecideds breaks in the final days. Slightly higher than average Democratic turnout will likely mean Obama and Kaine carry the state, while high GOP turnouts will probably mean they both lose. Given how closely the polling matches, the chance of only one them winning while the other loses, though, appears remote. With both races in the state basically tied, it could break in either direction
In the Presidential race Virginia will likely be decisive. While Obama could potential get to 270 even if he loses Virginia, it would be extremely difficult for Romney to win the Presidency without it. Similarly, Virginia maybe the most important closest race in determining who controls the Senate. Democrats could theoretically hold on to the chamber even if Kaine loses, but it becomes extremely difficult for for the GOP to net the four seats they need without Allen winning, especially after what happened with Todd Akin in Missouri.
On election night the state I’m going to be watch is Virginia, which fortunately will be one of the first states to report. How Virginia goes will probably tell us who has won the evening.
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Tim Kaine, the guy who became head of the DNC while he still had a year to go to fulfill his single term as Governor of Virginia. (Way to thank Virginian voters for going your way in 2008, Mr. President.)
Kaine, the guy who took over the DNC from Dean, who had led Democrats to jaw dropping victories in 2006 and 2008, then dismantled Dean’s machinery.
Kaine, the guy who, when asked by Jon Stewart what the DNC strategy for 2010 was, dropped a set of keys on Stewart’s desk and said, “Don’t given them back the keys.”
Which left Jon Stewart as genuinely incredulous as I have ever seen him as he asked, “That’s it? That’s your strategy? Don’t give them back the keys?” And, incredibly, Kaine didn’t get it and proudly said “Yes” and did not re-tool.
And then, there were the record breaking victories of 2010.
That Tim Kaine?
The people of Virginia must be very, very forgiving and sweet if Kaine is ever polling ahead. If he were running against anyone but the racist, lying Macaca man, I’d stay home if I were a Virginian.
Other than 2008, isn’t VA normally a republican state? I lived there In the 80s and in Roanoke/Salem it was. So if you think Va will determine the race, then O loses. (in my neighborhood, i felt like an endangered species.)
Tim Kaine has a unique reserve of goodwill among Virginia voters; he is married to Ann Holton, daughter of the first GOP governor of Virginia since Reconstruction. This bi-partisanship in his marriage and the ‘blended’ nature of the Kaine/Holton family has, somehow, meant a great deal to Virginians throughout his career. It largely explains his appeal despite being a bland conservative-to-moderate with little to no charisma.
DC suburbs of Virginia (Alexandria, Arlington, inner Fairfax) have become incredibly diverse since you lived there but, yes, downstate and Southside both remain quite conservative and GOP. It’s the state that has sent Virgil Goode and Eric Cantor to the House — and Harry F Byrd Jr and Bill Scott to the Senate.
Northern Virginia has dramatically changed the state with a large population influx
As DNC head, Kaine made me long for the good old days of Moneybags McAuliffe, a man I held in what senators call “minimal high regard.”
You neglected to mention Kaine’s biggest accomplishment as DNC head: that dippy “D” logo that resembles the logo for a pizzeria in Newport, Kentucky.
Last 10 Elections
1972 R
1976 R
1980 R
1984 R
1988 R
1992 R
1996 R
2000 R
2004 R
2008 D
Yes, that is how I remembered it. But maybe, like they say and in 08, things have changed. We still know a few people there and I know they certainly havn’t.
“Unlike in most highly contested Senate races this year where there is a huge divergence between how the Democrat is doing and how Obama is polling”
Maybe Democrats should take a lesson from that.
Tim Kaine is a putz, fortunately for him so is his opponent Macaca.
If the Democratic party were smart they’d hightail it to Richmond on Sept 14th. The GOP is reneging on it’s grandfathering Planned Parenthood clinics that already exist. They could make political hay and solidify their cred with women voters if they stood shoulder to shoulder with Virginia Coalition for Choice.
Sadly, I doubt they’ll do a darn thing though. Apparently politicians having to earn a vote is so passe’
Virginia is where I tried to register to vote for LBJ and they did not register me. It was Jim Crow and they are doing that this year too. Voting is not a “right” in the red states. What you have is what they will give you.
Meh, the ID rule is fairly lax. You can even use a phone bill or social security card as ID.
You know, we hear this all the time, and like much conventional wisdom, it is simply not true. Northern Virginia–Fairfax, Prince William, Arlington, and Loudoun counties, and the city of Alexandria–cast 24.7% of the statewide two-party vote for President in 1988, and 26.8% in 2008. That’s an increase of barely 2% in 20 years: hardly “a large population influx” which has “dramatically changed the state” from voting 39.6% from Dukakis to voting 53.2% for Obama.
What is in fact happening is that that area of Northern Virginia, and also the Tidewater area (the Cities of Virginia Beach, Suffolk, Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Norfolk, Newport News, and Hampton), and the Richmond area (the City of Richmond, and the counties of Henrico and Chesterfield) have all moved strongly Democratic at the presidential level over the past 20 years. In the Northern Virginia area, Dukakis won 41.0%, Gore got 49.3%, and Obama got 61.5%. In the Tidewater area, Dukakis 40.4%, Gore 49.2%, Obama 58.1%. And in the Richmond area, Dukakis 36.5%, Gore 45.0%, Obama 57.6%.
I tried to register in Jim Crow or the 1960′s when they registered who they wanted with no apologies. In fact they are doing that today. Democrats in Florida registration down 95%. There is no honesty in this election in the swing red states. I hope people burn down those rigged polling places.