The race for President at the moment could not be closer. Three national polls in the last 24 hours or so find that only a single point separates President Obama and Mitt Romney.
A new CBS News/NYT poll finds Obama with a one point lead, Obama 47 percent to Romney 46 percent. Both the Gallup tracking poll from today and Washington Post/ABC New poll have it reversed, with Romney at 47 percent and Obama at 46 percent. At a national level the election is completely tied at the moment, and the number of undecideds is incredibly small, measuring only about four percent of the electorate.
One minor warning sign for Obama today comes from Gallup. They note that the candidate with the lead in their polling going into the convention ended up winning 12 of the past 15 presidential elections. With the Republican convention starting today Romney technically holds a one point lead in Gallup’s polling, but this is within the poll’s margin of error.
Despite polling showing the race as close as it possibly can be, most Americans are still strongly convinced that in the end Obama will win. Gallup found that by a 58 percent to 36 percent margin voters think Obama will win. The Washington Post poll found very similar results with 59 percent predicting Obama will be re-elected and just 34 percent thinking Romney will win. Polls indicate the race is a toss up, but that is still not how regular people see it.