President Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in the two biggest swing states, Florida and Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT poll. With a combined 47 electoral votes between them, it will be very difficult for Romney to possibly win without beating Obama in at least one of them.
The poll also found that Obama maintains his lead over Romney in Wisconsin but it shrank since Romney selected Wisconsin native Paul Ryan to be his running mate. Obama went from a six point lead in the state earlier this month to only a two point lead. This makes it the second poll indicating Ryan has, so far, been a small but noticeable help for Romney in the state. From Quinnipiac:
- Florida: Obama at 49 percent to Romney’s 46 percent, compared to Obama’s 51 – 45 percent lead August 1;
- Ohio: Obama edges Romney 50 – 44 percent, unchanged from August 1;
- Wisconsin: Obama at 49 percent to Romney’s 47 percent, compared to Obama’s 51 – 45 percent lead August 8.
The small benefit Ryan offers Romney in Wisconsin may only be short lived or countered by the damage he will eventually do to the ticket elsewhere thanks to Medicare. The poll found that Ryan’s plan to turn Medicare into a voucher program is incredibly unpopular in these key swing states. In all three states, by roughly a two to one margin voters want to keep Medicare as it is instead of turning it into a voucher program.
In senior citizen heavy Florida, 62% of likely voters want to keep Medicare the same and only 28 percent want to turn it into a system where seniors get a fixed amount of money to buy private insurance. In Ohio, it is 64% to 27% for keeping Medicare the same; and in Wisconsin it is 59% to 32%.




42 Comments
The problem with these polls is that they are not calibrated for deliberate vote suppression in heavily democratic neighborhoods. A percentage of ‘likely’ voters who are expressing a preference for Obama will be prevented from voting that preference. For Obama, anything less than a three percent lead in any of those states probably means he is losing them.
The big O should have thought about his “base” before this election cycle. Now he really wants the votes from the supporters he had in 2008 – - Hey there big O – breaking news – you should have thought about your base 3 years ago! Vote third party this cycle!!
If O wants to win, he needs to round up a bunch of Wall Street, CEO, and Bankster criminals. Video tape them being handcuffed and escorted to prison by the FBI and indict them. He also might round up some war criminals also.
Could be a nail-biter. But wait for Romney and Ryan to squirm during the debates. Debates could be a determining factor especially in the purple states.
I certainly agree.
But, PROBABLY, any two of FL, WI, and OH makes oBAMA IMPOSSIBLE TO BEAT mathmatically.
O may be ahead in Ohio, but his support seems really soft amongst my independent neighbors. I still think that one good TV ad from Mitt could make a difference.
If he were to support medicare as it currently is publically and highlight O’s suggested age increase, that would be enough.
My conservative neighbor is right now trying to explain to his wife that Akins and Ryan are different people. :-)
Boxturtle (her first response: Oh, they’re different all right)
I think he’s planning an October suprise with some banker busts over LIBOR. That hurt the 1%, ya know, and he probably feels safe to go there.
But don’t expect anything on mortgages or such. And there are no war criminals, the AG has issued opinions that all our actions are legal.
Boxturtle (Who is worse, the crook or the lawyer that enables the crook to get away with it?)
Credit where credit is due, I expect O to destroy R in the debates. I’m waiting for the SNL parody of Biden/Ryan however.
You’re PROBABLY right, but what if O loses Penn?
Boxturtle (The GOP voter supression efforts aren’t working well here)
by “base” do you mean the “dirty fucking hippies?”
Obama’s disrespect for the Democratic base could really bite him in the ass in November. It doesn’t matter how much money he raises if there aren’t people out there to walk precincts and call voters. From what I see in my corner of the world (Detroit’s western suburbs), Romney has more determined supporters and the Republicans have a better ground game.
I agree with your view – pinch yourself though – you are dreaming. Hope and change, really? The two party system is broken and cannot be fixed!
That term is more accurate than “the Professional Left.” Most of us aren’t paid for our political activism.
Women are hard to convince. I’ve been trying to tell my wife that Kevin Spacey and Gary Sinise are actually one person.
Well, if the voter suppression efforts are successful in Penn. there’s a good chance Mitt will squeak thru. If not count on the wingers to use the 2nd Amendment option for real. You can’t stir up hate and intolerance and not expect it to explode if things don’t go their way.
You know I hate when you end your posts with a question that has no good answer.
SNL Biden/Ryan will likely be a gutbuster, agreed.
There are so many questions that Romney will have to dance around I’d bet he pulls a hammy.
PA is safely in Obama’s camp. We’re working on phony photo ID’s for everybody in the state and maybe 10-20,000 “extra”. Shhhhhh.
Bluetoe – I guess by your definition – middle class folks, union workers, believers in the constitution, fairness for all, and reasonableness in justice all = dirty hippies. If that is the case, then yes, dirty hippies could be included the term of base.
Excellent point. I know lots of “former” Obama supporters just like me who will not vote for him but will likely not vote for Romney. I’m voting Green Party and I encourage all former Obama supporters in red states like Terxas to do the same.
I beg your pardon. Most of us bathe regularly. As to the other, not so much anyore. But the 70′s were awesome.
Correct answer: if you lock them BOTH up, what does it matter?
Boxturtle (Thinks most of the DOJ and ALL of the Whitehouse should be in orange jumpsuits)
I agree – - vote third party. I did not leave the democratic party – it left me!
this is what everyone is ignoring!
for example
Two-term incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) holds a comfortable 9-point edge over his Republican challeneger, according to a new poll released Thursday.
Obama is not up by 9 points in Florida
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) holds a 7-point lead over Republican challenger Josh Mandel in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll released Thursday.
Obama is not up by 7 points in Ohio
this means some Dems are not voting for OBAMA, however they are voting Dem
the November surprise is going to be
Dems win House and Senate, and lose White House
I still see this as being a choice between the lesser of two evils. But Romoney is SO evil, I can’t even pretend to go there.
I truly believe , after his little visit to Israel the only place that send to welcome him. we will be in WWIII asap if he and Ryan win.
And this time an Armagedonist has the football.
I do not think I am exaggerating
Well, I hope you are wrong on the WH. Fortunately for ALL of us on the planet, Romney/ Ryan AND the entire GOP are, shall we say, performing badly.
I think the democrats, despite their dismal performance and recent history, are having great success in their 2012 slogan, “We suck less.” And, i think there is a good chance the house will revert to democratic control. The senate, I think the dems willpick up some, but not get the super-majority.
That would go in keeping with the populace trying to tie the hands of a president and make him more moderate, but I don’t see it.Esp after this War on Women has exploded thanks to Atkin, everybody is taking a closer look, I think ( well, maybe not EVERYBODY)
BTW, excellent analysis!!! Were you a poli sci major? Or did you stay at a Hiliday Inn Express last night????
Yeah, and that would be too bad. Unless they fix the filibuster, we’ll be deadlocked for another 4 years
Kassie, the only reasons Romney is not the most despicable person on the planet:
1) Rush Limbaugh
B) Donald Trump
3) New Gingrich
While I am with you on the third party vote, I wonder how much “base” damage has actually been done. I recall reading on HuffPo articles from Tom Hayden and a well-respected environmentalist whose name escapes me at the moment who said the “peace” and “green” votes, respectively, would come out for Obama in November if he “pledged to start conversations” on military and environmental issues generally. These writers were saying that those parts of the “base” are willing to ignore Obama’s acts of the last four years, and are willing to forego any promises from him for the next four years (though what good are those really), so long as Obama at least acknowledges their existence between now and November. Now, I will grant that there may be problems equating those writers with the “peace” and “green” votes at large, but still, with demands/expectations so laughably low, I question whether it isn’t already a foregone conclusion that Obama has their vote.
Agreed. Now if I were head of the DNC, I’d hire Donald Segretti to break into Mcconnel’s office to get some “leverage” on that old fart.
Just remember to take the duct tape off the door.
Worth reading.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/09/fear-of-a-black-president/309064/?single_page=true
I don’t know. I think he beats out the last two.
Did you hear what Lintball said?
“If I had told Atkin to leave the race he would have”
Heard it on Steph Miller yesterday complete with horrendous video of fat, bloviating man
Ahhhhh hahahahahahah!
Made me laugh. It’s legal now ,you know?
What’s up w/ you and where is the FDL mod.
Your comments on this post in order recommend voting third party, committing voter fraud and breaking into oppo party offices a la Nixon.
You a Willard/Petey bot or what?
The voter suppression attempts could very likely backfire and just bring even more people out to vote who might other wise stay home or vote Green etc. O sucks but the Reptiles are batshit crazy.
Moderator is a friend of mine.
Rich, I’m just a red-blooded, ‘merican guy who wants to take our country back from the flithy rich bastards and the corporations who have stolen it from us. I like baseball, hot dogs, apple pie and yesterday’s Chevrolet.
Agreed.
You still didn’t answer the question.
Must take lessons from Willard/Petey.
So you want it to be:
1)Rush 2)Romney 3) Donald, and 4)Newt.
I’ll go with that is you’ll give “honorable mention” to Cantor, Ryan and McConnell.
Shhhh. Don’t spoil Obama’s October Surprise!
Makes no difference, who wins this election.
Still unconvinced I should give a small fraction of a damn about this.
If you’re wondering why we have a population that makes not a peep as we flirt with corporatism and an imperial executive: decades of lesserevilism.
This brat-eater (had one for dinner) doesn't plan on voting for Obama again. A process that started with his re-negging on Gitmo in December 2010, the grand bargain with the
BushObama Tax cuts and culminating with his no-show / tweet regarding Gov. Walker last June. He might be taking my vote for granted this November, but his behavior and governance prove that he doesn't deserve it.Thus, I will throw my vote away on a 3rd party candidate.