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Despite media attention to issues about Mitt Romney’s tax returns, the selection of Paul Ryan, and of course a media fire storm around Rep. Todd Akin’s rape comments, the state of the Presidential race at the national level remains remarkably consistent. Two new national polls show Obama holding on to a modest but narrowing lead. The Latest NBC/WSJ poll found Mr. Obama holds a small four point lead over Romney with Obama at 48 percent to Romney at 44 percent. This is basically unchanged from the six point lead the same poll found for Obama last month and the three point lead Obama held in May.
The other national poll is the AP-GFK poll, which found a much closer race among registered voters, Obama at 47 percent and Romney at 46 percent. This is only a two point change since their May poll which found the race Obama 47 – Romney 44.
The NBC/WSJ poll is mostly good news for Obama. Beside the important fact that he is still ahead, the poll found he is beating Romney on basically every personal trait. By greater than two to one Obama is seen as more likeable and easy going. Obama also holds a two to one margin on who would best deal with the concerns of women. Obama holds a big lead on who cares more about average people. In addition Obama is even seen as more transparent and more honest than Romney. All around voters just seem to see Obama as a better person.
The one big bright spot for Romney in the NBC/WSJ poll is that he holds the edge on what is the dominate issue for voters, the economy. According to the poll 44 percent think Romney is better at having ideas to improve the economy while just 38 percent think Obama is better on that issue. The more Romney can made the election about the terrible state of the economy the better his chances.
13 Comments
A collapse in Europe might be the big game-changer.
Speaking of game changers:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201209_5day.html
I don’t want to get into a fight over who’s got the biggest poll but the Gallup daily poll has Willard leading by 2 points. This is a 4 point shift in the last couple weeks.
I sure would hate to think that having his own citizens assassinated without charging them with anything could cost a president a re-election.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx
of course, with a 2 point margin of error that probably means that a tied race is now a tied race…
That could be a shift, IF you’re comparing Gallup-Gallup numbers, but not a shift when comparing Gallup and another poll. Gallup, like Rasmussen, has a pro-Republican bias in its polling and both have been consistent outliers compared to other polls (Gallup undercounts minorities in its methodology).
-stewartm
It’s hard to calculate who is and who isn’t likely to vote from the responses you get from a poll.
Gallup claims that they have rectified this problem.
As i said above i don’t want to argue about polls, i just wondered why the oldest most respected and accurate national poll was omitted from this post. Is that bias?
and even though his lead should be MUCH larger, as an incumbent president facing the weakest possible kind of challenger,Obama still refuses to move even an inch to the left (except in some fakey, feel good stunts with gay, black, iraq war verterans they have planned for the convention).In fact, Obama is insisting some of the speakers at the democratic convention, actually be REPUBLICANS..make no mistake about obama. Hes harold ford junior with a little competence, and i cant imagine a worse combination in a politican.
I wish that there was a “delete” button for when you double post.
-stewartm
Apparently not. Mind you this was only a couple of months ago.
-stewartm
It seems that poll plucking has become a cottage industry, i support any thing that creates jobs in this economy.
The real question is should dems begin to panic now and head to Canada before the fall rush.
Snicker! Thanks for that.