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We now have our first really solid evidence that choosing Rep. Paul Ryan (WI) may have actually helped Mitt Romney politically. The latest poll from PPP finds that Romney has a one point lead in Wisconsin and that Ryan may have helped cement the Republican base for him. From PPP:
PPP’s first Wisconsin poll since Mitt Romney announced Paul Ryan as his running mate finds him taking a small lead over Barack Obama in the state, 48-47. That represents a 7 point shift from PPP’s last look at the state in early July, which found Obama ahead 50-44.
The biggest change Ryan’s selection seems to have brought about is the unification of the GOP. Romney’s gone from a 78 point lead with Republicans on our last poll (87-9) to now an 88 point lead with them (93-5). There’s also been a tightening with independents. Obama still has a 4 point lead with them at 47-43, but that’s down from a 14 point advantage at 53-39 six weeks ago. Democrats are unchanged from the previous poll.
Ryan isn’t exactly a universally popular figure in his home state. 49% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 45% with a negative one. But that does give him the best numbers of anybody on either ticket in the state. Obama has a 46% approval rating with 50% of voters disapproving of him, Romney has a 45/48 favorability rating, and Joe Biden stands at 41/48
It was likely that as we got closer to the election, base Republicans were going to start rallying behind their nominee anyway. So all of the improvement in Romney’s standing isn’t just the result from Ryan; but he probably did help.
If the Romney team can actually make Wisconsin competitive that would be a big help to them. Republicans are mainly playing defense this election. Taking a traditional blue state like Wisconsin would allow them to potentially counter the loss of a traditionally red state like Virginia.
In the short term it looks like Ryan was a minor help in his home state. The next big test of Ryan’s value will come at the end of the month when we see if he managed to significantly improve Romney’s fundraising.
18 Comments
I think Ryan helped a tad, but I think the bigger reason why Wisconsin is now competitive is because of Obama’s pathetic response to the Walker recall, both in 2011 and the actual recall earlier this year. While the protests were going down in 2011, Obama was nowhere to be found. He was too busy kissing Boehner’s ass trying to get a “grand bargain” on the deficit.
He sent a last minute tweet for the actual recall (pretty lame even by O’s low standards), and later said he was too busy to campaign for Barlett. The Wisconsin Dems are probably demoralised because of this, so why bother to vote for Obama when he doesn’t give a rat’s ass about them?
A 7 point shift, that’s huge, i wonder if Canada will relax their immigration laws to allow the hordes of dem refugees massing on their border pleading for asylum.
But wait help is on the way, Moveon.org and the AFL-CIA are gearing up to come to the rescue.
Much as I hate to say it, I think Ryan was a really “smart” choice for Willard. No snark. I think Ryan will go down a treat with conservative voters. JMHO, of course. I realize that Ryan’s just a somewhat smoother talkin’ Sarah Palin, but still: white guy – check; good looking – check; mega-conservative – check; sucks up to the 1% – check; WAR on Women bona fides – check. From the Dittoheaded viewpoint: what’s not to love??
I concur from our beery estates that we were severely demoralized by Obama's no-show on Gov Walker's shenanigans. It turns out that his "walkin' shoes" are actually by A. Testoni's, bought for him by Goldman Sachs.
In fact, I will probably not vote D again, certainly not until they cease behaving like they can rely on my vote no matter what they do.
I agree. But when the cheese heads look at the choice, they’ll come around and vote against Romney/Ryan. Just like last election, I think, and you guys know how that pains me, there will be sufficient anti-republcan votes to give WI to Obama.
All good points. I still think Rubio woulda been a better choice. I think Ryan and his ilk turn off the few mopderate voters who are disatisfied with Obama’s broken promises and might have leaned toward Romney but probably can’t stomach Ryan and his philosophy. A Mormon and a Catholic on the ticket??????? That’s gonna be a non-starter for some.
But we’ll see.
I think we need to wait a few weeks, maybe a month. The announcement of a VP always generates more interest. It lasts until we find out how bad the choice actually is. A side-effect of this Akin stuff is the strong affiliation with Ryan on various portions of legislation with both their names on it. If, after the conventions and strong advertising campaigns that could do wonders to take the sheen off the golden boy, Ryan, based on his support of damaging legislation, the numbers are still favoring Romney/Ryan at any level, then the American people get what they deserve in November. They will have been told what they’re buying and more than a few folks think it will be better than what they have.
My opinion? They’re in for a big surprise.
Those who will be voting for Obama in Wisconsin (and around the country) will be mosty voting against Romney/Ryan, not because they think Obama is awesome.
What will it take for people to see the writing on the wall. The good old Silent Majority doesn’t care what the repubs do or say they are fed up with Zero and the polls are beginning to show it.
Had no clue what you were talking about with the A. Testonis.
So I googled it and up popped this:
“Amedeo Testoni Dark brown crocodile mountain ankle boot with dark green details and Tyrolean construction”
Lol, like I always wear crocodile boots when I go backpacking in the Tyrols.
Nate Silver still has Wisconsin pretty much blue.
Jon, a single poll result doesn’t indicate “solid evidence”, just a data point which could be an outlier. The proof in the pudding is usually found in poll averages.
-stewartm
I guess denial is a river in Egypt and it has those crocodiles for making some walking boots.
wayoutwest,
Always there to defend the Gekko/Galt ticket …. how charming….
Moo-ve On indeed. Obama deserves to lose Wisconsin after he abandoned them during the recall election in pure cowardice. Loyalty cuts both ways Barry
Rubio grew up Mormon did he not?
Sorry Blu, you are way off the mark. I’m just having a enjoyable time watching the dem circlejerk implode.
Only a wingnut could say that while the GOP implodes over #legitimaterape
Even the grifter’s come out against Akin.
Sorry, had to laugh.
Interesting thing about Akin is that with foot in mouth, and grifter’s against him he still leads against the dem.
Still laughing?