There is probably one main reasons why Rep. Todd Akin is still refusing to bow to the collective pressure of the Republican party to drop out of the Missouri Senate race: he thinks he can still win. New polling by PPP shows that is not a completely unreasonable belief for Akin to hold. The poll found that despite his “legitimate rape” comment, Akin still holds a one point lead over Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill. From PPP:
Missouri voters strongly disagree with the comments Todd Akin made about abortion over the weekend, but it hasn’t moved the numbers a whole lot in the Senate race. Akin leads Claire McCaskill by a single point, 44-43. That’s basically identical to our last poll of the contest in late May, which found Akin ahead by a 45-44 spread.
It’s not that Missouri voters are ok with or supportive of Akin’s comments. 75% of voters, including even 64% of Republicans, say they were inappropriate to only 9% who consider them to have been appropriate. 79% of voters say they disagree with what Akin said, including 65% who express ‘strong’ disagreement with him. 51% of GOP voters say they strongly disagree with him.
All of that is taking a toll on Akin’s image. Only 24% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 58% with a negative one. He’s pretty universally disliked by Democrats (3/85) and independents (21/61) and even with Republicans (43/34) he’s on only narrowly positive ground.
Clearly the incident has seriously hurt Akin, but McCaskill was in such bad shape to begin with that the race doesn’t appear entirely hopeless for Akin. If he drops out now his political career is over. If he stays in he at least has the possibility of winning. People have short memories and a six year term is a long time to try to rehab one’s imagine.
Akin’s numbers could still really drop in the coming weeks once the calls by top Republicans for him to drop out and the loss of outside money and RNSC money start taking their toll, but if he can survive that and keep the race close, I suspect he can count on some of the conservative outside money coming back.
Today by 5:00pm is the deadline for Akin to drop out without creating a legal fight. If he doesn’t by then, it is proof he still seriously thinks he can win.



33 Comments
Interesting take on the polling information:
Akin sheds 8 points overnight to near-tie
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/08/21/akin-drops-8-points-overnight/
His staying in hurts the GOP. Exposes their hatred of women.
Let him run. Let his crazies support him. Anything to help destroy the Republican party is alright by me.
Are Missouri voters that mean and stupid, or is McCaskill that crappy a candidate?
I’m guessing both. Sad to say.
Yes a lot of both. This is also a very partisan time. Few people will vote for the party they really don’t like even if their own candidate is really bad.
If Dems keep hammering him for the next 80 some odd days it will go very badly for him and it’s also the perfect opportunity to tie every R candidate to this extreme position.
As a Missouri voter, I hate to say Missouri voters are that mean and stupid, but when I consider the evidence (many of the elected officials), there is a case that can be made. And, unfortunately, McCaskill really is that crappy. She’s spent her tenure as Obama’s ass-kisser, which hasn’t endeared her to the many rabid conservatives here and it’s alienated former supporters like me who wanted senator who was at least somewhat liberal (since here we can’t get a true liberal).
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/members/M001170/key-votes/page2/
She voted for Keystone, for the Surveillance Act, and against the Democratic Senate Budget. Other than those, she’s been party-line on key votes. Missouri is strongly Bible-belt, with all the ignorance and meanness that that entails; but this also shows the destitution of the Democratic platform. Not that any Democrat will acknowledge that. There’s a vast expanse to the left of either party that we need to fill to save this country.
I’m waffling about whether or not to vote for McCaskill. Yesterday, I’d decided I’d better shelve my plant to vote 3rd party for senator. Now I’m back to considering it. Yes, Akin is a cretin, but I’m not sure how much damage he can do on his own whereas voting for McCaskill sends the message that I approve of her performance at least to some degree, which I do not, and encourages more of the same. I will have to give this a lot of thought.
The Republicans now have a plank that says NO ABORTIONS – not for rape, incest, or life of the mother. They are going to vote that piece of garbage out of the convention and the party is stuck with it.
Bible belt meanness. That says a lot. And I’ve seen it with my own eyes.
The blistering sun may be the cause.
I just wanted to add, this is a great opportunity to push more of these backward right wing nihilists out of government and make progress towards turning the Republican party into a regional, at best, party until they return to sanity. In the meantime we can repair the damage that’s been done by thirty plus years of conservative/corporate domination of our country.
This is a gift of the first magnitude.
Well let’s help them spread the word.
Republicans want women who have abortions sent to prison.
(this is a true statement they just don’t want women to know that’s what they want)
What’s to say it won’t go further than that? What about women who work who miscarry? Might they not be thrown in prison for causing a loss of life because of their behavior (in this case the audacity of working)? I see a lot of creepiness here. I think everyone who has not read the Handmaid’s Tale ought to. I remember reading it when it came out and it seemed so fantastic. It now seems frighteningly possible. Just waiting for my debit card to be canceled (only men could have them).
I don’t mean to single out Missouri. Meanness and stupidity is a national problem. In 2010, my town voted to send Patrick Colbeck, a Tea Partier, to the state senate. Colbeck holds himself out as an expert on the Constitution, even though he never spent a day in law school. This makes my blood boil, as I’d spent three years in law school, only to see the Constitution I learned get trumped by Colbeck’s fantasy-camp version in the local court of public opinion.
I live 30 miles from the Canadian border, so the Underground Femaleroad might become a reality in these parts.
I think we should stick spreading the word about their first step which is throwing women in prison who have abortions.
You can, but there are a lot of women that won’t worry about that since they believe they’ll never need or have one. But it scares EVERY woman (or it ought to) who could get pregnant, lose the pregnancy through no cause of her own, and be liable for jail time. That’s the truly scary part of this nefarious legislation.
I’m in Ohio, where the Bill of Rights is being contorted. Home of Boehner, Schmidt and Kasich. Missouri does not have a lock on meanness and stupidity by any means.
Hmm. Interesting.
Post-Akin, I propose a Sir Bedevere litmus test for all GOP candidates; just demonstrate a basic understanding and acceptance of general post-Enlightenment scientific knowledge.
“This new learning amazes me Sir Bedevere. Explain again how sheep’s bladders may be employed to prevent earthquakes.”
Going forward, we really need to do a better job of weeding out candidates inclined to go on television and spew medievalism all over themselves and the rest of the party.
http://senatorjohnblutarsky.blogspot.com/2012/08/post-akin-lets-have-sir-bedevere-litmus.html
My prediction? Akin stays in the race & wins. Sad to say it, I just think a significant portion of the citizenry is joyfully accepting this misogynistic viewpoint, including lots of women who are good authoritarians wanting Big Daddy to oppress them into submission.
It’s the way things are now. I don’t see any downside from Akin’s perspective to staying in the race. Akin mouthed out some bullshit pablum, so STFU.
Missouri’s not the only state with embarrassments for legislators:
Rep. Steve King: I’ve Never Heard Of A Girl Getting Pregnant From Statutory Rape Or Incest
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/08/steve-king-statutory-rape.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
Yep, yep. Said something similar to that myself this morning.
Which pretty much wraps up all the He Said That Really? coverage on whatiznames “gaffe” on the weekend.
It’s what the believe and what they will create law around. It’s fucking scary to me.
It’s challenging isn’t it sometimes to try to stick to talking about issues without talking about parties and presidential votes, don’t you think?
We’ll hang in there, right?
You people can’t hold a candle to Texas. We’ve got a despicable governor and two houses of the legislature with guys born in the 17th century.
You may be right. It IS Missouri. But “stupid is as stupid does“. Let’s see.
THis far from the last “foot in mouth” incident. We’ve got a long way to go and bunch of ignorant nimrods to get us there. Both parties.
(Granted, this one was a doozie. May be hard to follow for anybody but Perry and Bachmann.)
In Michigan, the state Supreme Court automatically takes the side of a corporate defendant in civil suits, especially if the corporation is in the insurance business.
The Attorney General and Secretary of State might as well be on the Republican National Committee, they are that partisan.
The Democratic Party is owned, lock, stock, and barrel, by an inbred clique of aging white males holding high-ranking positions in the United Auto Workers.
We’re well on our way to becoming Mississippi with better basketball teams.
Even though I am way beyond child bearing years, this has just got me pretty upset. Not just for my 29 year old daughter, and yours and all the women, but for the men of the nation too. I can understand that men for choice and respect of women must be upset as well.
Twenty three years ago, when I took my toddler son with me to Pro Choice rallys on the street, I had no idea that we’d be in a worse place now.
I think I need some herbal tea to get through this. Yes, I’m kidding. Get out the big guns.
Akin knows if he hangs in there, he wins. Can’t fix stupid on either side.
Yes, Jon.
And a shame it is that there is so little to “choose” from.
One wishes that there were alternatives.
However, as you say, in essence, Americans deserve only one …
For, if the “other” (of only two) is horrible, then “choice” is not really an applicable word.
In an ostensible “democracy” something is made mock of when such a “situation” obtains.
Especially when, beyond the scary campaign rhetoric, either “option” means more endless war, more torture, more destruction to the Rule of Law, extension of the Patriot Act, more repression, less genuine security, in terms of health, well-being, and jobs … and so on.
Perhaps, some far away day, it may be realized that “things” are deliberately set up the way that they are … so that real “control” always separates the people into two warring camps … now, for whom is THAT a good thing?
For the people?
Or for a specific, small group … a very wealthy and very powerful “group”?
What do you think?
DW
It would certainly be awful if Akin hangs in there and wins. I wonder how he ever got the nomination?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/why-todd-akins-win-gives-democrats-hope-in-missouri/2012/08/08/6e0246b8-e16c-11e1-ae7f-d2a13e249eb2_blog.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/democrats-signal-eagerness-to-face-todd-akin-in-missouri/2012/08/03/092bfbde-dd9e-11e1-9ff9-1dcd8858ad02_blog.html
I like Claire, and I will vote for her, but she has some blind spots also (think not paying taxes on airplanes). Missouri is in the mood of throw the bums out and they don’t care who gets in. I still think Akin will win in Missouri and while there are many tea partiers that are voting for Akin, there are also alot of voters just voting against Claire. In six years they will probably vote against Akin, but for now they just don’t want Claire.