Not if Kathleen Falk has anything to say about it.

the paul pick probably helped obama more then mitt

there were peeps who would not vote for the zero, with ryan on the repuke ticket they are feeling more compelled to make sure the pukes don’t get in office

I wonder why more Wisconsinites aren’t happy with Obama? He put on his walking shoes and joined their protests like he promised, didn’t he?

I like these Early Indicators.
Thanks, Jon
It’s hot and sticky. People are cranky. Saw two car accidents just on my trip out to walk in the park and pick up something from the market.
Hot and crazy stuff out there, so it’s nice to read some hopeful news.

Do you think it might be O’s pathetic response to the recall election? A last minute tweet of support, then after he was criticised for that, he said that he was too busy to campaign for Bartlett.

He wasn’t too busy to campaign, though. He did a Hollywood fundraiser at Sarah Jessica Parker’s pad the day before the recall election (or near it).

If I was a cheesehead I’d be none too impressed with Obama for the reason you cite. But Ryan is a jerkwad in anybody but a TEA Bagger’s mind.

If you put together a map of a dozen or up to 15 states representing “tossups,” which would speak to the trajectory of either re-election for Barack Obama or his unseating by Mitt Romney, the inclusion of citing Wisconsin is accurate.

In 2000 and 2004, the state of Wisconsin held for the losing Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry, respectively, by less than a full percentage point.

President Obama won the state by 13.91%, which was 6.65 above his defeat of John McCain, in 2008, by a national margin of 7.26%.

If Mitt Romney wins the 2012 U.S. presidential election, by starting off with erasing that 7.26, a good 8 or 10 points nationally are going to win back the 2004 Republican/2008 Democratic states. (No Republican has won beyond the 2004 George W. Bush popular-vote margin of 2.46% at any point in the last 20 years!) Add to those nine 2004 R/2008 D pickups the state of New Hampshire. And if any one state carried by Obama with a double-digit margin also flips (a la the 2004 R/2008 D state of Indiana), the one with the best potential is Wis.

I am skeptical of the polls. If Obama wins re-election, and severely underperforms his margins (from 2008), he’d be only the second incumbent re-elected to a second full term (only Franklin Roosevelt exceeded two full terms) — since Woodrow Wilson (1916) — with a lower electoral-vote score (based on popular-vote margin). What normally happens is that the incumbent gets re-elected with gains on both counts. I am skeptical because I believe that either Obama gets unseated or gets re-elected, and the result won’t be all that unique.

Well, that was for him. Let’s get our priorities in order, here. First, last, and always, the big Ooooooooooo!

In response to Janeane at #5.

Agreed.

And I want more interviews with Ann Romney. The 21st century Marie Antoinette.

Actually, I was sorry to hear that her horse got airsick on the recent flight back from Utah.

Lots of time btw now and November. I’m not following the polls at this point.

I follow for the purpose of context.

If Mitt Romney were to unseat Barack Obama — to win the popular vote we’d be seeing him dramatically shoot north the 2008 margins in the states carried by losing Republican John McCain.

Latest polls show that’s not really happening. For example: North Dakota and South Dakota — won by McCain by 8.65% and 8.41% — should be getting carried by at least 20 points (as George W. Bush won N.D. both times by over 27 and S.D. 22, in 2000, and 21, in 2004, percentage points). Just about all of those states should be really up there — with Texas not 11.76% (for McCain) but between 21 and 25 points (shall Romney unseat Obama, he’d claim the Lone Star State with at least 60 percent of the statewide vote).

Not happening (thus far).

So, we get the typical players: Ohio, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico (though its bellwether days may be tilting away from competitive to identify Democratic), Iowa (margins closely connected to all winners since 1992), and the new bellwethers of Virginia and Colorado. So, in come the conflicting reports. And the drum gets beat that this race is going to be so goddamned close.

If the electorate was only basing their 2012 vote on the Economy, nobody would give a fuck about Mitt Romney. He’d be winning this election in a blowout. So, I think it speaks to voting patterns (a long topic) harkening back to the past 150 years (reluctance to switch parties two elections in a row; people were glad to kick out the GOP in Election 2008!). And enough people polled still hold Bush Jr. as the commander in chief responsible for presiding over the economic meltdown of 2008 and the housing crisis and, of course, the mass unemployment.

Barack Obama is, by no stretch of the imagination, a fantastic president on the level of a Franklin Roosevelt. But, with no feeling of “real choice,” one could b.s. himself and pretend Obama is to the 2010s what FDR was to the 1930s: the only choice! We’ve been electing only Rs and Ds since the former first competed with John Fremont in 1856. So, it’s no wonder there is no real choice.

Not paying attention to the polls is … not a bad idea.

Do you think it might be O’s pathetic response to the recall election? A last minute tweet of support, then after he was criticised for that, he said that he was too busy to campaign for Bartlett.

He wasn’t too busy to campaign, though. He did a Hollywood fundraiser at Sarah Jessica Parker’s pad the day before the recall election (or near it).

Exactly; conclusive reason to not vote for Brand O: the Community Organizer ™. I hope it was worth losing my vote to gain a handful of mythic swing-voters, Democratic party. (Presuming this is the reason he evaded his responsibility, to those who elected him.) Unfortunately, it probably was as the D's have no desire to lead the country out of the wilderness and O's behavior suggests he cries all the way to his re-election fundraisers. Where else are Geithner's retards gonna cast their votes, right O? The D's know who their masters are and aren't about to alienate their real base by representing or marching with the hoi polloi.

Barack Obama is, by no stretch of the imagination, a fantastic president on the level of a Franklin Roosevelt

hoo boy

although I consider bush in the top 3 of bad presidents I think this quote would be closer to reality if it read like this;

Barack Obama is, by no stretch of the imagination, a fantastic president on the level of a Franklin Roosevelt bush

No one in Wisconsin likes the Banksters. O’s giving them immunity from any wrong doing makes it difficult to see a difference between himself and Romney.

No one in Wisconsin likes the Banksters

true dat…let’s take it further;

nobody in the world who is not a bankster likes banksters

Ryan is a cartoon character and the worst sort of hypocrite; he received SSSC funds (his father died during his childhood), his entire career has been spent at the Public teat (a politician for over 20 years), he calls the police on his constituents when they show-up unannounced (as he's never available to meet) and he backpedaled from his philosophic god-queen when her pro-baby killin', god-hating notions came to the light of his religious handlers. Like most of his ilk now that he has amassed a vast personal fortune from the largess of the nanny-state, he can't he behaves as if it can't be dismantled fast enough.

Actually, he is the perfect choice for VP, Paul Ryan is Romney's Mini-Me: a smaller, younger and distilled version of himself.

he can't he behaves as if it can't be dismantled fast enough.

Oops.

I call him a mediocre president on the level of Grover Cleveland, the most conservative Democrat elected to that office since the Civil War.

nobody in the world who is not a bankster likes banksters

The politicians whose campaigns benefit directly seem to like the banksters well-enough. Well enough to keep them out of prison anyway; looking forward and all that.

Why Petey needed SSSC funds to pay out of state tuition when UW Whitewater is in his own backyard is a mystery.

How long did Petey flip burgers too if he was so hard up?

Fits the Scott Walker narrative of bringing a brown bag lunch in one hand and holding on to the one of the Koch’s in the other.

Both Willard and Petey seem to have shared the same silver spoon.

I’ll vote in November and follow the election results.

Agreed Baron. He is the worst kind of politician, a lifetime politician. We MUST get rid of these parasites with campaign finance reform and term limits.

since they are the very people to vote in those restrictions, not likely to happen

Year limits I support. Term limits I do not support.

Agreed Baron. He is the worst kind of politician, a lifetime politician. We MUST get rid of these parasites with campaign finance reform and term limits.

We have term limitations already; they are known as "elections". I have no problem with career politicians if they represent their constituents or otherwise do a good job. I do have issues with someone who has gained almost everything from the social safety net that he actively seeks to destroy (now that he has no need or use for it). I completely agree with the need for campaign finance reformation, however.

I have been unemployed for extended periods of time. The social safety net is wonderful; my last wish is to take it away from those who need it even more. In fact, I feel that I must defend it because it has aided me throughout my life. If it weren't for unemployment benefits, I might likely be homeless.

Oh noes! A Harvard-educated corporatist militarist bank puppet might lose to another Harvard-educated corporatist militarist bank puppet!