Incumbent Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill (D) probably did catch a serious break when Rep. Todd Akin, the weakest of the Republican candidates, managed to narrowly win the primary last week. Polling before the primary showed him doing worse than the other top candidates. Yet even against a flawed challenger McCaskill is in serious trouble. The first public polling since Akin won the Republican nomination finds him with an 11 point lead McCaskill. From a SurveyUSA poll of likely voters taken 8/9-12:
Missouri will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for US Senate were today, would you vote for … (choices rotated) Republican Todd Akin? Democrat Claire McCaskill? Or Libertarian Jonathan Dine?
51%….. Todd Akin (R)
40%….. Claire McCaskill (D)
4%…… Jonathan Dine (L)
5%…… Undecided
The poll’s internals show Akin leading among all age groups over 35 years of age. Akin also has a huge 49 percent to 33 percent lead among independents.
It is possible that some of Akin’s lead is a post primary victory bump that will fade away soon, but there is no way a bump accounts for his entire 11 point lead. Even before the primary the public polling showed Akin had a modest lead over McCaskill, and it appears to have improved now that the GOP has a single candidate to rally around. At this moment Akin is a real favorite to unseat McCaskill.
Akin’s voting record is a target rich environment that gives McCaskill many potential issues to use to try to tear him down. But it is going to be a real uphill battle for her to keep her seat.



13 Comments
McCaskill is the Senator Version of One Termer Rep Suzanne Kosmas.
Background: Florida’s Kosmas was a seasoned state politician before she won her seat in Congress along with Alan Grayson. I don’t know much about Grayson, other than that he was a private attorney.
In any case, Kosmas rode in on Obama’s coattails. Soon, Obama’s policies and her support of them drove her and others off the cliff in the mid-terms.
McCaskill has been, likewise, duly (for D Party) and unduly (b/c he sucks) supportive of Obama and his right wing policies.
The lesson Suzanne learned from having served and lost is this:
She feels that she was not sufficiently conciliatory and bipartisan.
IMHO, McCaskill will learn the same incorrect lesson.
The problem is of course that Obama and his right wing policies have done zilch for the common people.
If McCaskill won’t turn on Oilbomber, she is toast.
She’s probably toast anyway. People are starting to recognize that actions matter far more than words. And where it matters Claire has not been on the side of the 80% that expect to have their representative be their voice.
Meh. America has bigger problems than whether this wannabe Republican keeps her spot at the trough.
I won’t vote for her again (I have in the past) but I will say this: Missouri is a very divided state. Just as it sent equal numbers of troops to the North and South during the Civil War, it remains very divided politically today. Rural Missouri is very tea-party conservative while urban Missouri is liberal. I don’t see how she’d manage to make enough constituents on either side happy to remain in office. In my case, she became much more conservative once she was a Senator and that’s when she lost me. (That, and the Obama ass-kissing she did. Gag).
The GOP had a brutal threeway primary for the chance to run against McCaskill, and some of the polling numbers are the result of relentless ads that used her as a foil. Almost every ad for the last month has tried to equate McCaskill with one of the GOP candidates, saying “A vote for X in the primary is as good as voting for McCaskill.” The ads targeting Sarah Steelman (who finished third) were particularly brutal.
As disappointed as I am in some of McCaskill’s votes and positions, the idea that she’s identical to any of the three GOP primary candidates is ludicrous. The ads were completely misleading, and I think are responsible for much of the gap in the S-USA polling cited in the post.
The only ads that Claire ran were ads primarily on Fox that said “Todd Akin is too conservative for Missouri.” At first, I was bewildered, but on reflection I think she was trying to push Akin’s stock up among conservatives in the primary, so that he would be her November opponent, betting that he would be the most unpalatable candidate to the Missourians in the middle. Well, she got her wish.
Since the primary, McCaskill’s been running some ads featuring her mom and talking about how McCaskill led the charge to clean up the burial scandal at Arlington Cemetery. Good ads, and they put her name out there in a positive way on an issue that she can point to and say “Yes, I accomplished something.” They’re a nice antidote to the relentlessly negative pictures of her during the GOP primary, but she’s going to have to do a lot more, fast, before this race is over.
A Republican wannabe running against a certified tea party lunatic. I don’t see the difference.
Over the cliff at 60 MPH or pedal to the medal…….
I watched your Senator on MSNBC, Ed Schultz and others and I saw a clear resemblance to my Senator Amy Klobucher in Minnesota so Iam with you Missouri Mule. But I would be pleased to see this seat change up here also with a true Liberal voice representing Minnesota.
It wasn’t just Obama. I removed my name from her e-mail list within a half-year of her election to the Seante. Can’t remember now which straw broke the camel’s back.
Nothing progressive is going to fail to happen in the next six years because Claire McCaskill goes down. Maybe after six years of Akin things will swing toward a real Democrat in what has for 175 years been a divided state. There’ll certainly be a better chance of getting a real progressive in this seat in 2018 if Akin, and not McCaskill, is the incumbent.
No one with power in the Democratic Party wants liberals winning primaries, let alone elections.
Only Democratic voters want them.
Too bad for us.
The little man from Missouri said it all when he addressed those attending the National Convention Banquet of the Americans for Democratic Action on May 17, 1952. (He said similar things in a speech to farmers.)
The full speech is on the website of the Truman library.
Liberal versus conservative is the wrong paradigm anymore.
Are you pro 99% or pro 1% and how good are you at delivering your message?
Funny thing about the 99%. There are a lot more of us.
Being from Missouri, I can tell you that McCaskill is far, far to the right of Richard M. Nixon. Her voting record reflects a moderate-to-conservative Republican (along with Obama).
If bumpkins have to choose between an authentic Republican or a pretend-Republican, they will choose authentic.
McCaskill deserves to lose. Unfortunately, she will lose not to an Actual Democrat; but, to a right-wing nut.
When the cards are stacked against Democracy, we get… modern America.