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On net President Obama has a weaker grip on his 2008 voters than the Republican party has on theirs. According to Gallup, 9 percent of people who voted for Obama in 2008 now back Mitt Romney. In comparison only 5 percent of people who voted for John McCain now plan to support Obama. From Gallup:
The result is not particularly surprising. Even many of Obama’s strongest defenders will admit that he did not live up to the hype and promise he offered in 2008. Several promises remain unfulfilled, the economy remains weak, and instead of a post partisan presidency we have had perhaps the most partisan four years in Washington.
Given that Obama won by a large margin 2008, he can afford to lose votes compared to the last election, just as long as he doesn’t lose too many.
What I think is interesting about the poll is that it shows just how narrow the number of true swing voters really is. Despite some very big changes in policy, the economy, politics and the official positions of the parties, only a small sliver of voters has moved from one party to the other.
23 Comments
Just bc O has betrayed his base is no reason for them to desert him.
I guess all those “centrist, moderate, independent” voters who were supposed to crossover and vote for Obama in 2012 because he trashed the base of his own party didn’t materialise.
But you haven’t seen the full results of eleventy mention chess yet.
it should be no surprise to anyone that given the monolithic voting of republicans that people could and would more easily pick sides. Bipartisanship confuses the many low and no information voters.
I have my issues with Mr. Obama, but he’s not running against Jesus, he’s running against Mitt Romney.
How does ANYONE vote for Romney?
Explain.
the wrong question was asked: How many supporters of the big O in 2008 will be voting for a third party candidate?
I’ll answer first – me me me for third party this time around
Not the best move by Obama, chasing right wing votes from atop a unicorn.
yes i won’t be voting for Obama, who needs Rmoney lite? of course living in a RED state my vote never matters. it is the thought that counts. in the toss up states, people like me are going to just abstain and watch the Lesser of Evils game play out.
Put me, also a red state voter, in the “other” column.
I suspect there are more of us than any poll will ever show.
You asked for an explanation, so I’ll explain. I voted for Obama in 2008, and I’d vote for Romney this time–I’m at least considering it. Why?
Well, let me count the ways. First off, would all the “liberals” be so gung ho about going to war with Syria and Iran if it were McCain doing it?
Second, would all the FDL posts about how Obama is destroying our civil liberties be ignored if it were McCain doing it?
Would all the “liberals” endorse McCain’s assassinations of American citizens like they are Obama’s? Would they likewise approve of the heinous spying program the telecoms and McCain’s NSA are inflicting against American citizens? What about NDAA? Would the “liberals” be as silent about a McCain NDAA as they are about Obama’s NDAA?
The phony liberals who support Obama are pathetic and disgust me. That’s why I would vote for Romney: just so the hypocrisy of the phony liberals will force them to fight against the things I despise regardless of who is in office.
Hey re@5 .Nobody is voting for Romney ,but many of us would never vote for O after he referred to us as “”:fucking retards that had no where else to go”".That was his “souljah”" moment .I’m going for Jill Stein ,You don’t have any where to go ? If the entire election fell on my vote ,if only cuz of self-respect,I would still vote for Stein .This lesser-evil tripe has driven the center into fascism ,yet if Nader could win ,these lemmings would still cling to the establishment .I don’t even believe their cowardice what hazard a secular or divine Jesus .
Well, if re-election is the ultimate goal of all that chess playing, I think it’s worked pretty well.
Phony liberal ? That”s a redundancy .Still dude .how could you vote for a moral runt with ghost values ? Just move beyond the two-party trap . Well, good night .
How many who voted for Obama will not vote for Obama AND not vote for Romney?
How many who voted for McCain will not vote at all rather than vote for Romney?
More importantly, Obama is also taking the Democrats down with him. People have been leaving the party in droves ever since Obama appeared on the scene. Democratic registrations are currently at an all-time low. I’m guessing Americans are tired of being called racists every five minutes.
http://youtu.be/zID8vSSqkns
Obama finds himself in a hell of his own making. He and the Democrats on Capitol Hill betrayed the very constituencies who gave him his strongest support four years ago.
Obama betrayed much of his base. War on medical dispensaries and ‘look forward, not back’ on war criminals did it for me.
LOL. “Several”, eh?
I don’t know, if I were Obama I might be more worried about the 5 per cent who are now backing OTHER. Because I’ll bet many are like me – lifelong Dems who are going F(8k me, no F)8k you.
I mean when you have spent your life voting for the lesser of two evils, and he can’t convince you that he is that much less evil then Mitt Romney – well that isn’t saying much. (I do have to say that I shocked someone this weekend when I came flat out and said that I despise Barack Obama.)
And btw, that means he has lost fourteen per cent of his voters.
It’s been Sister Souljah Time for the left almost continuously for the past two decades now.
Doing the math…
In 2008 Obama won 52.87% of the popular vote, McCain 45.60%, “other” 1.53%. By re-distributing as shown above, and assuming that “other” keeps the 1.53% from 2008 and adds those who answered “other” in this poll, Obama would get 47.75%, Romney 46.71%, Other 5.54%.
I think that the Democrats are approaching a lock on the Electoral College for the foreseeable future. States with 242 electoral votes have voted for the Democratic candidate in the last five elections. Add in New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Iowa, which went Democratic in four of the five, and you’re at 257. Colorado and Nevada would add 15 more for a majority of 272, and in addition Virginia with 13 is trending strongly Democratic. We’ve been saying for a long time that the Republican Party is moving further to the right every year: I think they have now reached the tipping point, where they are unable to get to 270 electoral votes in this decade, even if they carry Florida and Ohio, which is far from assured. And by the middle of the next decade, 12 years from now, Texas will probably reach the tipping point as well.
I don’t say that’s a good thing, that the Democrats are likely to win for the foreseeable future. But that’s what I see happening, unless the Republicans move back toward the center, and right now I don’t see how that can happen.
The basket has been lowered by 3 feet just for Republicans, and they still can’t sink one.
They don’t. They vote for someone like Stewart Alexander, Jill Stein, Rocky Anderson, or they don’t vote at all.