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Some very good news for the Obama campaign this morning. The latest Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York Times swing state poll has Obama at or above 50 percent in a matchup with Mitt Romney in the three largest swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. This is their first poll of likely voters this cycle. From Qunnipiac:
This is the first measure of likely voters in these swing states and cannot be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters. Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states – no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them – shows:
Florida: Obama edges Romney 51- 45 percent;
Ohio: Obama over Romney by a slim 50 – 44 percent;
Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 53 – 42 percent.Support for President Obama’s proposal to increase taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year is 58 – 37 percent in Florida, 60 – 37 percent in Ohio and 62 – 34 percent in Pennsylvania, the survey by Quinnipiac/CBS/The Times finds.
It is not surprising that the Obama campaign’s promise to end the Bush tax cuts for the rich is popular. It was also popular in 2008 when Obama promised it in his first campaign. Since he made no effort to actually keep that promise, he gets to run on the idea a second time.
On the all important issue of who would be better at handling the economy, voters in all three state are effectively evenly split. Romney has a two point edge in Florida while Obama has a four point edge in Pennsylvania and a one point edge in Ohio.
The other good news for Obama is that in all three states his favorable rating is net positive. In comparison Romney’s favorability rating is negative in the three states. Voters simply don’t like Romney very much, which is one of his biggest problems.
25 Comments
I do not believe this poll. It reeks of disinformation. I expect the results are just the opposite. Obama is behind in Ohio, Pa and FL
For Ohio (where I live) the results seem to match what I’m seeing. HOWEVER, Obama’s support is very soft and it wouldn’t take many ads to put Rmoney in front.
The RNC ads in Ohio seem very well done, hard hitting, and are making people think. Which is bad for both candidates, but worse for Obama since the ad makes sure that the economy is the first thing to be thought of.
The DNC (or maybe one of Obama’s superpacs) has an excellent ad detailing Mitt’s offshore money that ends “He’s not the solution. He’s part of the problem” that seems very effective, to the point that even my conservative neighbor conceeds there’s a point to be made.
Obama & Mitt’s offical campaign ads are not impressing me.
I’m gonna vote for Obama. And spend the next four years with my head in a grocery bag.
Boxturtle (I’m a Browns fan. I’m used to grocery bags)
Based on what data? A Rasmussen poll in Ohio released on July 18 showed Obama ahead in Ohio 47-45, and Rasmussen notoriously oversamples Republican areas. You can add at least 5 points to any statewide Democrat’s total in those polls to get a more accurate figure.
Florida is the perennial tossup again, though all of the recent polls I have seen show Obama up by anywhere from one to seven per cent.
As for Romney being ahead in Pennsylvania, in what alternate universe do you normally reside? That’s just science fiction. Pennsylvania hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, and they have absolutely no reason to change that pattern in favor of Mitt Romney, of all people.
And please read my posts before even thinking of ME as some Obama cheerleader; I detest him every bit as much as I do the other Fascist in the race.
Quinnipiac University is a very reputable outfit. It also matches Nate at http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ who is also pretty good.
It is also several months to election and both candidates could melt down by then.
Boxturtle (Polling data is frequently very soft numbers as well)
Maybe he’s in the one where Penn’s new voter id law is upheld. Mitt will win Penn if that law is in place for November.
Boxturtle (I think it will be struck down, at least for this election)
BT…long time no see.
That lying, tax evading, outsourcer, and offshorer Romney andf hs uppity little wife have no chance if he loses all three of these states.
Un-oh. That means Obama wins.
Lemme re-thing this whole scanario.
The tidings of “Good News!!!” are amazing … and lead one to ask, for the second, the third, or even the fourth time, this question.
Given all this great and wonderful “good news”, in what ways, precisely and concisely, is ANY of this great and wonderful “good news” … good news for “the people”?
All of this “good news” for Obama OR Romney only suggests more, and worse, of … “the same”, lame and destructive, old thing … more fraud, more war, more economic pain for the many, however sexed-up or “spun”.
What is “good” for the political class, which includes the media who cover this horse race(shit), is not, emphatically NOT, good for the people, for the many … for, no matter who wins of the two? “legacy”, or as Gore Vidal termed them, the “property”, parties … but it IS wonderful good news, always, for the 1%.
Now “good news”, Jon, in my opinion, would be the occasional inclusion, in your reports of ANY news or information about other views, other candidates, other political parties …other reasonable, rational and just possibilities, beyond this election ” … held at great cost without issues and with interchangeable candidates.”
Is there any news like that?
If not, then why not?
This page, at the moment has several adverts about Bradley Manning, for example, does anyone imagine that the “victory” of either Obama or Romney portends “good news” around Bradley Manning?
Another advert speaks of FDL’s “Tenacious Brand of Reporting …”. Is that what “good news” for Obama is about?
Let us look up that word, “tenacious”, and see what definition accompanies it.
These definitions turn up:
1. Not readily letting go of, or separated from an object one holds, a position, a principle, a point of view …
2. Not easily dispelled or discouraged, persisting in existence or in a course of action, clinging stubbornly to …
“Tenacious” seems an astute description of the “property” parties.
Tenacity, in terms of actual principle seems admirable, in terms of other things, however, it might not be such “good news” …
Ah, well …
DW
I’m sure you know ‘cuz I’ve said it before, feds struck down republican passed voter ID laws in Texas and No. Texas (OK)
DW, Dude….you been on a roll lately. Did you increase your ginko-biloba??? It really shows.
But, OTOH, let’s not be too tough on Jon. He’s doing the best he can under extremely difficult circumstances, i.e. “Other than that, How did you enjoy the play Mrs. LIncoln.”.
But if Obama doesn’t win, then Romney wins. That’s really not good.
Dos Equis for lunch again.
Not with lunch…..FOR lunch.
Stay thirsty my friends.
So Jon, like Obama, has no real choice, then?
The die has been cast and it has only two sides?
If that is the case, then flipping a coin would suffice for choosing what is or is not “good news”.
I do not seek to be “hard” on Jon, for he does make it clear that Obama has the prospect of using the same line over and over … but the gullibility of a “public” which accepts this as “reasonable” or might actually consider that it is “good news” that THIS time … Obama might mean it … is worrisome, to say the least.
“Good news” is so damned relative, ncg, as to be a least six degrees of separation from what once passed as “reason” that one cannot help but wonder if dumbing down is the new “new” and wising up no longer in vogue?
I feel for Jon, really I do, and wonder how he may possibly gush the superlatives without a twinge of laughter and a well-developed sense of the patently absurd.
But then, “ah” … is “well” the port-ends swell.
;~DW
Different law, different circumstances. Penn’s law would likely be upheld IF it was reasonably possible for the voters lacking ID to obtain it before the law was in force.
Boxturtle (Might be upheld anyway)
Obama blah blah blah…
Romney blah blah blah…
it’s all bad news anyway you slice it.
Vote Jill Stein.
This poll uses the 2008 voter turn out as the model for what percentage to sample. This poll asked 9% more democrats than republicans, which was accurate in 2008, but this year the republican base is pumped up to get out and vote against President Obama, not necessarily for Romney.
Unfortunately this poll is useless.
You’re right, Of course.
BTW, who has the “patent” on absurdity? That guy must be rich!
People always picking on the polls. Those poor people.
Jill alread has my vote.
Maybe even two.
Shhhhhh.
Could be BUT..re-register the whole state? Oh the humanity.
More twilight zone music…
If a poll were to be truly useful, then would it not ask more than, “Are you going to vote for Obama or Romney?”
Would it not provide, at least, the option of “neither”?
A reporter who reports such a poll, when it is obvious that many of his or her readers think that there MUST be more than a choice of Tweedle Dee or Tweedle Dum, is offering his or her readers … exactly how much truly useful “information?
If those three questions are not meaningless, then what are they?
Anyone?
DW
No, just the Republicans.
Boxturtle (And maybe some like minded independents)
They are Questions by David.
Information put forth here by the staff is what this site does.
Your philosophical point of view is also part of the dialogue that happens, inspired by the news.
It’s all good, DW. It really is.
Many voices is a good thing.
Very poignant.
Are they not questions that others might ponder?
That might be worth the pondering?
Perhaps the site can and ought to “do” more?
Is the Demi-glass half full … or half empty …?
Be the Demiurge the Platonic creator?
Which are but other questions to ponder upon during this “end” of the Demiseason betwixt and between the electoral deluges.
Hast thou lately gazed upon the Demilune?
And a Demipique certainly is nothing to be saddled with.
As a Demigoddess, thou knowest, of course, the riddle of these thinks …
All, as you say, IS good, and all the much better with thine presence.
;~DW
Jesus Christ, Bartoo.
You are too much for me.
For right now.
There is no demimoon. Only the full one, and some family stuff to deal with.
I beg your pardon.
Ever faithfully, Demi.